He stole half of this list

It’s that time of year when everyone is publishing lists of all kinds and sizes and varieties.  We at Long Drive didn’t want to fall by the wayside so here is our own list: The 2010 Top 10 Phillies Prospects!  Some of you may recognize this as a slightly edited version of the list I posted on PSD.  I spruced things up a bit by using a 1-5 star ranking system which I will briefly explain in a moment.  We also did a solid 2 minutes of collaborating.  I  included a player’s upside and downside and 2010 age.  All these player evaluations come with the qualification if healthy. These projections are a median expectation.  The upside/downside is provided to indicate certainty.  And check out the links…there’s some video or stats pages for most of the guys.

One final note before I plunge into things.  James at Phuture Phillies recently published his Top 30 prospects list.  His work is far more ambitious than mine.  I highly recommend reading it AFTER mine.  We have differing opinions on a couple things, mostly he’s just more bullish on Gillies and Singleton than I am and less bullish on Brown and Valle.

The ranking system:

• 5 star – Future All-Star/Elite talent.
• 4 star – MLB average to above average talents.  Players who will consistently put up between 2-4 WAR most healthy seasons.
• 3 star – MLB role players.  These guys may or may not be starters but they will usually be between .5-2.5 WAR per season.
• 2 star – Replacement level/Organizational soldier.  These guys will probably have fringe MLB talent and will struggle to become more than the 25th man on a roster.  Sometimes these guys are briefly useful and sometimes they fool everyone.
• 1 star – Really? is this ever going to show up on a top 10 list?  A 1 star athlete has no semblance of talent or projectability.  When a player is listed with 1 star downside, that means there is considerable risk of him being a complete bust.

5 Star Athletes:

The only big fish left...

1. Domonic Brown, age 22: We’ve all heard the ridiculous Darryl Strawberry comp, but Dom Brown is still a true 5 star/ A- rating prospect. He projects to have mid 20s homerun power with peak years in the 30′s although he could end up short of that if he stops developing. He’s mobile with slightly better than Chase Utley speed but worse instincts on the basepaths.  His plate discipline isn’t spectacular, but neither is it entirely lacking.  A lot of people are talking about a 2011 debut and it could happen with a big 2010, but I personally would like to see a 2012 debut so that he has more time to mature.  The total package should combine to be an all star level bat with slightly above average defense in an OF corner.  Start getting excited if you haven’t already.  Brown has 4 Star downside.

3 Star Athletes:

2. Sebastian Valle, age 19: I’m not much of a doubter when it comes to Valle’s ability to stick behind the plate. He has the athleticism for it and most of the doubts come from scouts who don’t watch him and loosely throw that designation around any time they hear a prospect only recently donned the tools of ignorance. The most recent reports have indicated that his defensive improvement is encouraging.  Valle looks like a 19 year old and he will become a little stouter as he fills out his 6′ 1” frame.  He has another 3 or 4 years of learning to do behind the plate to make up for his recent transfer to the position, but his stick could be big league ready much sooner. Expect him to take over for Ruiz when the time comes.  4 Star upside, 2 star downside.  If he’s moved off catcher, he’s not a prospect.

3. Anthony Gose, age 19: Gose is a similar athlete to Tyson Gillies with two exceptions: he strikes out a lot more and he’s more polished on the bases and in the field. He’s as fast as Gillies which is saying something and features superior defense in the central pasture. Analysts seem to focus on Gose (and Gillies) being a potential future leadoff. It’s tough to say who has a better chance of developing into one, but I think Gose has the higher ceiling and a better chance of developing into a long term MLB regular. Expect a faster Shane Victorino out of this guy. Despite an apparently weak ISO of .094 as an 18 year old in the Sally League, scouts seem to think that he can develop gap power.  His place in the big leagues depends on him developing that power potential and/or cutting down on the strike outs.  I think he’ll be a 2 hole or 6-7 hole who adds more value with his glove than his bat. The floor would seem to be 4th OF.  He’s another 4 star upside, 2 star downside guy.  His glove will get him on an MLB bench if his bat fails to.

4. Trevor May, Age 20: I like what the kid has done to date numbers wise, although this is the first guy on the list I haven’t really seen play at all. He figures to be a fast-rising back of the rotation starter. He pitched very well in his age 19 season in the Sally League and will probably open ’10 there with the goal of promoting him by mid-June.  2 Star downside, but he should be able to find his way into the pen at the very worst.

5. Domingo Santana, Age 17: I agree with Matt Hagen, Domingo Santana really stands out for me. He had a fantastic age 16 season in the GCL. Santana has a lot more to prove at this point despite playing well above his head in ’09. His 6 bombs in 37 pro games are promising but he could have real strike out issues if he fails to improve that 37.3 K% or .34 BB/K ratio.  His upside is franchise outfielder and his downside is invisible franchise soldier (5 star upside, 1 star downside). The #5 ranking signals the mere adequacy of the remainder of the system as player’s this far from relevance ideally wouldn’t be taking up space on a top 10 list, much less find themselves smack dab in the middle of it.

6. Phillippe Aumont, Age 21: Aumont is the closer in waiting, but it remains to be seen if he can close. His control and command are minuses currently and his secondary offerings have inconsistent reports. What is clear is that they need a lot of work. While being tabbed for the pen, Aumont will almost certainly be shuttled back into the rotation to work on his durability, pitch selection, location, command, and effectiveness. It looks like a long laundry list of things to fix, but Aumont has a floor/ceiling ranging from low leverage reliever to top of the rotation starter (in the unlikely world where everything clicks). He will be a big league contributor someday if he can avoid the injury bug.  The Phillies will need to work hard to fix a lazy follow through which indicates that his power generation may rely too heavily on his arm rather than the whole kinetic chain.  To that end, they’ve asked him to go back to his pre-draft three-quarters arm slot hoping that will clean up a number of issues*.  Given that, it’s possible that there’s actually potential for another couple ticks of velocity on an already hard thrower…I’ll give him a 4 star ceiling but that feels generous.  You’ll find Aumont on a lot of Top 100 prospects lists, but I can’t help but wonder if those authors and the scouts they talk to are still in love with the 18 year old monster oozing with potential that was drafted in 2007.

*Note: Large mechanical changes significantly increase injury risk

7: Jarred Cosart Age, 20: There’s not much to say about Cosart due to his brief run in the GCL this season at age 19. He should get an aggressive assignment to the Sally League to open ’10 and could even earn a promotion to high-A. He’s a fantastic athlete who at worst case scenario could convert back to his OF/3B/1B roots and start over again if things aren’t clicking by his age 23 season.  2010 will be a big year in his hunt for prospectdom.  Next year I expect him to either be #2 or not on this list. He has to work a bit on his mechanics, but has reportedly made strides since turning pro. 5 star upside, 2 star downside.

wha???

8: Tyson Gillies, Age 21: I talked about Gillies some in the Gose comments. Gillies has leadoff potential and plus plus speed, but his bat plays like Juan Pierre’s. OK, that’s some undeservedly strong hyperbole, but Gillies won’t develop any consistent sock in that bat unless he radically changes his slappy plate approach.  He needs to improve his power and his efficiency on the bases to be more than a 4th OF for a championship caliber club like the Phillies. However, he is likely to be the kind of 4th OF that you won’t mind starting for long stretches of time if the injury bug bites. I imagine a role like the one Michael Bourn would have played for us had we kept him, perhaps with a smidge more pop.  Gillies has steep upside if he can learn to drive the ball better, perhaps as high as 5 stars, but I’m very pessimistic of that happening hence the #8 ranking.  Like Gose, his glove and speed will get him a bench job if the bat doesn’t come around, so his floor seems to be as a 2 star player.  We’ll find out very soon how much of Gillies’ offense last year was him and how much was High Desert.  If he retains most or all of that ability and shows 10 homerun promise, he should be #3 on this list.

2 Star Athletes:
9:JC Ramirez, Age 21: Ramirez has the frame, fastball, and projectability of a #2-3 starter, but his secondary offerings and command are fairly weak. He relies on a heavy fastball that could play up even more in the bullpen and I think his ultimate destiny lies there. Like Aumont, expect the Phils to try to give him every opportunity to figure things out as a starter before converting him to relief. Expect some improvement over last year as he’ll move from one of the best run scoring environments in baseball to pitcher friendly Clearwater or perhaps even a slightly aggressive promotion to the neutral Eastern League.  3 Star upside, probably a future pen arm.

10: Antonio Bastardo, Age 24: Bastardo’s 10th ranking reflects the fact that he is an MLB player now, not that he has any special skills or ability. He’s a guy who at worst should be an effective LOOGY and at best is a swingman who specializes in high leverage relief when not starting. I fully expect Bastardo to be the type of lefty who can throw full innings in leveraged roles. He looks like JC Romero with a few more hits and a few less walks to me. I really wanted to leave him off the list entirely, but couldn’t find a guy to bump him with. He’ll hold his own in the pen this year and will be a long term fixture in the bullpen if he can shake the injury bug. No upside/downside.

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