The Best Laid Plans…
In what should have been an utter thrashing of a series, the Phillies managed just 13 runs against three of the worst starting pitchers in baseball (OK maybe Kennedy isn’t that bad) and one of the worst bullpen units. I was worried the D-Backs would get to Hamels and they did, but I never suspected that Benson would put up a reasonably decent start. I’m dumbfounded as to how that happened, but then again, Livan Hernandez hasn’t allowed an earned run yet so there’s plenty of room for blind squirrels and nut finding in the first month of the season. The second game didn’t go according to plan either. Figueroa battled through 5 innings to give the Phillies exactly what they needed from him. Ian Kennedy had a strong start for AZ, but the Phillies managed to outlast them. The final game more closely resembled what I expected from the series, with the Phillies and Diamondbacks trading blows until a victor emerged.
I have just a few observations to make. The Phillies are awfully thin at SS right now with Castro banged up. Valdez really isn’t a serviceable defender. Somehow the duo of Valdez/Castro has provided nearly league average offense since Rollins hit the DL. Both are poor hitters so every little bit of production we get from them is a blessing.
Howard does not seem comfortable at the plate right now. The observations I made about Howard earlier in the year have held true, his K% is nearly half his career rate at 17.5%(32.2% average). However, his ISO is down to .200 from a .304 average (and .292 the last two seasons) and his walk percent has crumpled to 3.6% after averaging 12.7% on his career. The current product has been a slightly below average hitter. The real problem is easy to see in his plate discipline data. He’s swinging at more pitches outside of the zone (35% compared to 26% career) than he ever has and he’s hitting way more of them (56% compared to 40% career) than ever before. He’s also hitting a whopping 91% of pitches in the strike zone compared to a career rate of 79%. If Howard can cut down on the bad pitches he’s swinging at, he should see his ISO jump. His walk rate will climb too, but so long as he’s connecting on practically everything that crosses the plate, he’ll have trouble getting it back above 10%. Howard seems to have made a real change to how he hits, there’s libel to be growing pains involved, but I’m hopeful he can improve his strike zone discipline back to career norms and turn this change into a net positive.
Chase Utley just doesn’t seem to be getting pitches. It’s possible scouts have noted Howard’s new approach and don’t fear him as much as they used to. That seems foolish to me, but as it stands Utley is walking 19% of the time. As long as Howard and Werth keep playing well, this is a good thing.
Our hobbled rotation seems to be doing alright. It looks like Figgy has positioned himself to take over Kendrick’s role on the team once Blanton returns. Speaking of Blanton, he threw 3 IP on Friday allowing 4 hits and a walk. I had to look the line up on Milb.com. I assume no news is good news here. He should be making his third and final rehab start on tuesday or wednesday and will be probably throwing about 75-80 pitches. I expect him back on the roster sometime towards the end of the weekend or the beginning of next week. It’ll be interesting to see who’s cut.

