Posts Tagged ‘Payroll’

If you haven’t been keeping up, the last few days I’ve been looking at the Phillies future payroll commitments in order to make some observations.  I even have a public Google Doc so that you can follow along at home.  Today’s post will get to the point that’s nearest and dearest to my heart, how to keep Jesus Jayson Werth without paying him in 2011.

First off, why keep Jayson Werth?  After all, we’ve already observed that the Phillies have a strong outfield and with the tight 2011 payroll, it will take a lot of creativity to keep Werth aboard.  For 2011, Shane Victorino and Raul Ibanez are signed on the dotted line with Ben Francisco, Tyson Gillies, Quintin Berry, and John Mayberry Jr. competing for the 3rd spot and bench options.  Gillies will be the eventual winner with Brown starting to push him by the end of the season.  Looking outside the organization, outfield is incredibly deep and future all-star outfielders are non-tendered or otherwise let go all the time by the Dodgers. Perhaps I should open up a roster slot for Xavier Paul now.

And the newest Phillie is...

The reason to keep Werth around is simple, he’s good at everything.  The man is the second most dynamic player on the roster behind shoe-in Hall of Famer Chase Utley.  He can run, throw, field, hit, work the count, and take a pitcher deep.  In fact it’s tough to pick out any flaws with Werth.  He has a checkered health history, although his injuries resulted from physical trauma, not poor conditioning or a run down body.  In fact, as a result of his injuries, his body has far less mileage on it than most 30 year olds (31 on May 20).  Aside from that, he’s merely above average against RHP and does take a healthy number of strike outs. Looking at his skill set, the only comparable player is Alex Rodriguez. While Werth only truly bests ARod in the underrated facial hair category, it’s safe to call him the second most well rounded player in baseball.  If you just focus on the description and last two years of work, Werth looks like a guy who should be earning a Matt Holliday like contract.  That we may be able to extend him for considerably less is all the more reason to be interested in keeping him.  But how do we do that when there’s practically no payroll available in 2011?

Yesterday, we took a look at the 2012 payroll, noting that if they stuck with the $140 mil payroll ceiling, the Phillies have 35 mil to spend on a 1b and a PH.  They could opt to force Kyle Kendrick out of the rotation with a pitcher signing or waste it in the bullpen.  We also took a peek at that free agent class, noting the depth on the 1b side and the shallowness at SP.  Given that, it might be best to avoid the pitching targets and budget 20 mil for a premium 1b.  With this year to year plan in hand, the payroll is a solid 15 mil below the ceiling.  This is where Werth fits in.  A 2012 Phillies team with Werth is a team without Shane Victorino (9.5m).  That means that 24.5 mil of funds would be available to Werth. Why not use them? Why not present Werth the opportunity to help the club pay him.  A contract that breaks down as 5/22/16/16 gives him an AAV of 14.75m, probably about the cost and years he’s looking for to stay.  If that’s not palatable to Werth, Ruben, or ownership, there are a number of creative ways to defer cost.  A simple deferral could turn a 12/16/16/16 contract into a 4/17.6/17.6/17.6/1.6/1.6 deal over 4 years (that’s 8 mil deferred in 5 annual installments).  A longer deferral period could be named for more money or varying amounts could be applied.  Another pseudo-deferral is the signing bonus.  An 8 mil signing bonus (with deferment) would change how the contract is treated on payroll, giving Ruben some legroom in ’11 via the accountant.

The lesson here is not to instruct Ruben on how to do his job, it’s to point out that if the club really wants Werth and really plans to move forward as the dominant force of the NL, the flexibility is there to sign Werth without making any further changes.

Google is pretty awesome isn’t it?  Attached is a spreadsheet of the Phillies payroll commitments as noted by Jeff Euston at Cots Contracts.  I will be updating the data as the season goes along, the spreadsheet is intended to provide everyone a quick snap shot of the Phillies commitment to the 25 man roster.  Keep in mind there are plenty of minor leaguers also making serious coin and some of the players have performance incentives that may scale up the value of their contracts by the end of the season.  Option buyouts are not indicated in the spreadsheet.  Most options have buyouts, you can look those up at Cots.

https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0ArCib-AD2n2VdHRfdDBrMGdrdVdIRkRhTEVUN2dIOWc&hl=en

A number of simple observations should jump out.  First, the Phillies are heavily committed to 2011.  Only 4 players are set to come off the books in Moyer (8m), Werth (7m), Durbin (2.15m), and Dobbs (1.35m).  Pay raises are set to eliminate those savings.  An additional 4.95 mil could come off the books if options to J.C. Romero (4.5m/.25m buyout) and Juan Castro (.75m/.05m buyout) are declined.  With only about 2-7 million to spend on four to six roster spots, 2011 looks like it will be a very boring offseason to be a Phillies fan.  Hopefully the club will make it a shorter and sweeter offseason with a Championship.  Looking ahead, you’ll probably notice that things open up a bit in 2012.  This will be looked at more in depth tomorrow.

For those of you hoping to retain Jayson Werth, the 2011 payroll certainly bodes ill.  This is especially concerning since Ruben and Montgomery have publicly hinted at a firm payroll ceiling around 140 mil for opening day rosters.  Creative options to retaining Werth will be explored in a few days.