Pictured, second from left: Danny Bonaduce, pre-steroids.

My relationship with J.A. Happ, if you will, has been an interesting one. I’ve been a fan of his since his minor-league days, telling anyone who would listen that he would eventually be a quality big-league pitcher. When he got his shot in 2008 and pitched well, I extolled the virtues of letting Jamie Moyer walk and replacing him in the rotation with Happ. I believe I was called a moron for this more than once. As it happened, Happ ended up competing with Chan Ho Park for the final spot in the rotation last spring. Park, being a veteran, a righthander, and inexplicably promised a fair shot at the rotation when he signed, only needed to pitch reasonably well in spring training to win the job. He did that and more, and Happ, who pitched well in his own right, was banished to the bullpen.

Nearly two months of Park stinking up the joint ensued before Charlie Manuel finally put Happ in the rotation where he belonged, and Happ put up one of the most impressive rookie seasons in recent Phillies history, going 12-4 with a 2.93 ERA, finishing second to Chris Coghlan in Rookie of the Year voting. A funny thing happened then: I, perhaps Happ’s most fervent supporter mere months before, found myself tempering the wild enthusiasm of casual fans, who were penciling Happ into future Cy Young ballots. As you’ll see after the jump, this is just a tiny bit ridiculous.

Unlike Joe Blanton, Happ’s peripherals tell a pretty straightforward story. His .270 BABIP was low, his 85.2% strand rate was unsustainably high, and the 1.40 difference between his ERA and FIP was by far the highest in the majors. All this points to a guy benefiting from good defense and some luck. So the question isn’t whether or not Happ will regress, but rather how much. For his part, Happ is understandably a little miffed at people like ESPN’s Keith Law, who referred to him as “a raging fluke,” whose success was a result of “luck, not skill”:

“I’m not going to take too much out of it. I mean, it’s a little bit disrespectful to assume everything was luck last year. I think it’s very hard to have a full year in the big leagues and be lucky. But I guess it’s on me to show.”

In a solid piece earlier this month (warning: do not read the comments, unless you like idiotic ramblings) , Daily News beat writer David Murphy wondered if Happ’s “feel for situational pitching” might not be accounted for by advanced metrics. After all, a major component of FIP is walks, and all walks are weighed equally. Not a bad theory, especially since his strikeout, walk, and line drive rates do trend in the right direction in high-leverage situations; however, his insane .141 BABIP is not supported by batted ball data. Additionally, Happ’s strikeout rate dropped and his walk rate rose with men on base versus his marks with the bases empty; another unsustainable BABIP (.207) would seem to be the reason for his considerable success in that regard.

Back in early August, when Pedro Martinez’s arrival raised the question of who should be booted from the rotation, I took a look at Happ’s performance to that point:

A funny thing’s happened over the course of the season, though – Happ has gotten better. After a pair of awful interleague starts, he sported an FIP around 5, a 1.26 HR/9 and a cringeworthy 4.42 BB/9. His traditional numbers were solid, but more advanced metrics foretold dark days; the aforementioned numbers and a BABIP hovering around .220 spelled doom, or at least a considerable regression. Eight starts is still a pretty small sample size, but even taken with a grain of salt, Happ’s improvement is notable. In those 58 innings, or almost exactly half his season total, Happ has cut his homer rate in half, shaved three walks per game off his average and upped his strikeout rate for good measure. This has helped him avoid a regression as his BABIP has begun to normalize.

Happ’s ERA in September was just south of 5.00. The typical, traditionalist explanation for this was a rookie getting tired – which might have held some water, had Happ not struck out nearly a batter per inning and walked only two per nine in those four starts. What really happened was a huge spike in homers allowed and BABIP. Ironically, Happ’s xFIP of 3.57 for the month was easily his best of the year.

Na-na-na-na-na-na-na-na HAPPMAN!

Happ is undeniably talented. His 6-6 frame and deceptive delivery reputedly make his 90 MPH fastball look more like 95 to hitters. He also has a good cutter and changeup, and an occasionally effective curve. His minor league track record, apart from a 2007 season in which he pitched through elbow trouble, is a good one. Happ is not an ace, but he’s also not Kyle Kendrick. He’s a good bet for an FIP in the low-to-mid 4.00s. Will he repeat last season? Doubtful. But just like Blanton, we don’t need Happ to be an ace, just a solid mid-rotation pitcher. He’s more than capable of that. A league-average pitcher is still a valuable commodity, especially if he’s cost-controlled. And at just 27 and in his second full season, it’s not unreasonable to anticipate some slight improvement in his peripherals. Even if not, Happ should be an asset to the Phillies going forward.