With the quarter pole of the MLB season approaching this week, and with a streak of posts by Ryan Edmund that simply must be stopped, it seems as good a time as any for a State of the Phillies Address. Platitudes and neverending ovations are not, strictly speaking, necessary, but the latter would be appreciated. H/T to MooseWithFleas for the general concept and some statistical legwork.

Since we never play our reserves, I’ve declined to analyze their performance, but everybody else gets the treatment after the jump.

The Lineup

Shane Victorino: It’s been a strange start to the year for the Flyin’ Hawaiian. A recent hot streak has seen his average climb back to respectability, though his OBP is still a sickly .311. He’s already launched eight homers, more than half his previous career high (14, set in 2008). He’s on pace for career lows in stolen bases and attempts. All of this is rather simply explained with a glance at his batted ball data. Vic is swinging at more outside pitches and making less overall contact than usual, which have contributed to his low walk percentage and BABIP (6.0% and .270, respectively). The spike in power is attributable to a huge increase in flyballs hit and HR/FB. It’s likely that these will all regress to his previous performances, but a 20 HR season is certainly within reach. He’s been his usual solid self in center.

Placido Polanco: Polly’s basically done what he was expected to do – make a lot of contact, occasionally pop one over the fence, not walk much, and play solid defense at third. There doesn’t look to be anything out of the ordinary with his peripherals, either, though the double-digit HR/FB may drop a bit.

Chase Utley: Walks up, whiffs down, and a higher ISO. Utley’s headed toward a career season at the plate, and he’s been spectacular as always in the field, a couple of crappy throws aside. Business as usual from the best player in baseball not named Albert Pujols. If there’s anything to complain about, it’s that he’s only stolen one base so far after swiping 23 in 2009.

Ryan Howard: His power has dipped at an alarming rate, he’s walking less than ever, and the bundles of strikeouts have returned. There’s a lot of baseball left to be played, sure, but there are way too many red flags here to be comfortable, especially considering the mammoth extension he got a few weeks ago. When your cleanup hitter has the sixth-best slugging percentage in the lineup, that’s simply disconcerting. Thus far, Howard has seen his GB rate rise sharply at the expense of flyballs, and he hasn’t done well against the heat. Once he starts getting the barrel on a few more fastballs, his power numbers should rebound.

Jayson Werth: Our Beard and Savior is on pace for an eye-popping 85 doubles, which would burn down the current single-season record and piss on its ashes. No one’s even broken 60 in the last three-quarters of a century. All those two-baggers are a big reason why Werth’s leading the team in SLG and ISO. Alas, with a .391 BABIP due for a sizable regression, he’s not likely to perform at this high of a level all season. Then again, that might provide some small help to keeping him beyond this year.

Raul Ibanez: You might be expecting some sort of “I told you so” here, since I cited Ibanez as a prime candidate for a disappointing 2010. And, well, I did tell you. But there’s more here than meets the eye. First, Ibanez has been a little unlucky so far, with a BABIP in the .260 range despite a 21.4 LD percentage. Second, he’s demonstrated some impressive patience and discipline at the plate with a 15.2 BB%, which has helped offset his bad luck on balls in play and decline in power. Finally, Ibanez is notoriously streaky, so at the risk of succumbing to gambler’s fallacy, I’m expecting him to reel off a nice run at the plate at some point this year. 2011 still scares me, but we’ll cross that disaster when we come to it.

Carlos Ruiz: Make no mistake, that .403 BABIP is going to come crashing down at some point, but the near-20 percent walk rate probably won’t suffer that much. Even if you’re not a saber nerd, you have to love what Chooch has done at the plate so far. His knee sprain last week was minor, and he may be back in the lineup tonight.

Juan Castro/Wilson Valdez: Know who might also be back tonight? Jimmy Rollins, and thank the baseball gods for that. Even with Valdez’s 7-for-19 run in the last four games, this not-so-dynamic duo has combined for a .256 wOBA and a negative UZR in the double digits  in J-Roll’s absence. If Jimmy can showcase some of the incredible plate discipline he showed before his injury, so much the better, but even the 2009 model is an upgrade over the Quad-A slop we’re throwing out there now.

The Rotation

Roy Halladay: Is good at baseball. He’s been everything we could have hoped for. Enough said.

Cole Hamels: The BABIP and HR rate continue to be inflated, but of more concern is a higher walk rate, since that’s firmly within the sphere of Hamels’ control. Cole needs to borrow Doc’s cutter, because his own is Charles Barkley turrable. According to Fangraphs, only Nick Blackburn’s cutter has been worse this season. The high strikeout rate is encouraging, and the xFIP continues to float in the area of his career average. I still think Hamels turns in a solid season, but the walks have to come down.

Jamie Moyer: Our resident octogenarian has been a solid #4 so far thanks to pinpoint control, but trouble lurks on the horizon. He’s still giving up way too many homers, and the BABIP won’t stay that low forever. Let’s just keep Pedro Martinez on speed dial, m’kay, Rube?

Kyle Kendrick: Other than a couple of gems against the Braves and Cardinals, he’s been pretty awful. Still essentially a one-pitch pitcher. Not even God Halladay can do everything. He’s got a first-class, one-way ticket to Lehigh Valley when Happ is finally healthy.

Joe Blanton: Tough to make judgments on three starts, but expect the homers to go down and the strand rate to come up. Big Baby Blanton will be his usual dependable self soon enough.

J.A. Happ: The 2010 “Shove It, Sabermetrics” tour has been on hold as Happ’s dealt with a sore forearm. His lack of command in the two starts before the injury was frightening, but it may have been a symptom. He’s at least two weeks away from returning.

The Bullpen

What with small sample sizes, evaluating the bullpen in the manner I’ve used for the lineup and the rotation is problematic, so here’s a simple grouping to cap things off.

Awesome, Slight Regression Coming: Jose Contreras

Awesome, Big Regression Coming: Chad Durbin

Unlucky, Big Regressions Coming: David Herndon (.436 BABIP!!!), Ryan Madson (.417!!!) once his tantrum toe heals

Continues to Turkey Slap All Logic and Reason with Inexplicable Success: J.C. Romero

Who Knows?: Brad Lidge

Still Shitty: Danys Baez

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