Presumptuous as it may be to look ahead to the postseason when the Phillies would be putting their broms in the closet if the season ended today, we’re all pretty confident in this team. Two straight NL pennants and a 16-5 run largely without two of our three best hitters will do that. Shit, we’ve managed to stay in the thick of the race with Wilson Valdez playing every day; expectations should be high upon the returns of Ryan Howard and Chase Utley, particularly the latter. And as we’ve all heard and orgasmed over by now, Chase begins a rehab assignment in Clearwater this very evening. He’s targeting Tuesday’s series opener against the Giants for his return – which, btdubskis, is also the date Howard is eligible to come off of the disabled list. Ladies and gents, we may be looking at our full Opening Day roster playing together for the first time since The Great Depression.

Anyway, there’s the small matter of securing a playoff berth standing between us and a third straight World Series appearance (a few bounces from being a potential third straight championship, but hey…two out of three ain’t bad). This recent run has done a lot of good work toward brushing aside these charlatans who would fain eliminate the possibility of having their faces broken by a Doc-headed triumvirate of terror and a fully operational Death Star of a lineup, but we’re not there yet. Ergo, scoreboards must be watched.

After the jump, a look at those who would dare take our title, including how they stack up against us in a postseason series. Heavy lies the head that wears the crown, bitches.

Atlanta (67-48)

Schedule breakdown: 26 home, 21 away, 31 against .500 or better

Games against Phillies: 6 (Sept. 20-22 at CBP, Oct. 1-3 at Turner Field)

Why they’re a threat: For starters, they’ve got a three-game lead on us, despite the wins we’ve been piling up over the last three-plus weeks. I expressed concern about the Braves’ potential back in March, and while not everything has panned out as I might have expected (Yunel Escobar was terrible and got traded, Troy Glaus has cooled considerably, and Chipper didn’t get hot until right before his knee asploded), they’re the ones standing at the top of the East, and it’s because of their pitching. The staff’s MLB ranks: first in home runs allowed, second in hits allowed and FIP, third in ERA and WHIP, and tied for sixth in K/BB. Top to bottom – and, naturally, Billy “Ratface” Wagner is the bottom – they boast arguably the best group in the league. And those 31 games against .500 or better teams? 16 are against the Marlins and Mets, so that number could drop by half two days from now. Other than the six games against us and a four-game set with the Cardinals next month, the Braves don’t play a current contender.

Why they’re not: Eventually, the horseshoe in Tim Hudson’s ass has to fall out- his ERA is nearly half of his FIP. That dog won’t hunt, Monsignor. Kris Medlen is out for the year. Tommy Hanson is on pace for a career-high workload. Derek Lowe doesn’t scare anybody these days. The lineup is solid, but other than maybe Brian McCann, no one player jumps out as a big-time threat. And as easy as the schedule may appear, we all know how much the Fish and Nats like to play spoiler down the stretch. And if we’re within three games by the time that season-ending series rolls around, we control our own destiny. You can’t ask for much more than that.

Threat assessment: For the rest of the season, high. They’ve got a cushion to work with, and they’ll also have control of their destiny in our six games against them, barring a Mets Meltdown Special. In the playoffs, though? I’m not especially concerned. A playoff rotation of Hudson-Hanson-Lowe-Jurrjens simply doesn’t inspire a lot of fear, and if we’re healthy, I’ll take our offense against their every day and twice on Sunday. They easily win the bullpen matchup, sure, but ask the Dodgers how well that worked out for them in the last two NLCS. By the way, remember that that’s the only round we can face them in. Division rivals aren’t permitted to play each other in the…Division…Series. Don’t ask.

San Diego (68-47)

Schedule breakdown: 24 home, 23 away

Games against Phillies: 3 (Aug. 27-29 at Petco Park)

Why they’re a threat: After four and a half months, I don’t think there are many doubters left. This team is clearly for real. They’re among the leaders in pretty much every pitching statistic you can think of, but if you’re looking for the major reason they’re leading the West well into August, it’s a vastly improved defense. There wasn’t really much roster turnover, so either everybody got a lot better at fielding or this team will crash and burn next year like so many other surprise contenders. They’ve also managed to score 500 runs so far despite playing in a park that is to offense as Ted Bundy was to pretty young girls, and fielding a lineup of Adrian Gonzalez and seven turds every day. It’s inexplicable.

Why they’re not: As good as that pitching staff has been, the playoff rotation is surprisingly weak. Mat Latos is awesome squared, but dude’s benefiting from some serious BABIP luck and will pass his previous career high in innings in his next start. After him, the candidates are Clayton Richard and a bunch of crappy veterans with mid-4 FIPs who are simply riding Petco’s coattails. Seriously, I know home-road splits are iffy, but these are blatant.

Threat assessment: No disrespect to Padres fans (there are Padres fans, right?) but I want this team in the playoffs. Jon Garland, Wade LeBlanc, Kevin Correia…pick your poison, all of these schlubs would get lit up like the sun in CBP. And while games would also be played at Petco, I think that’s as much of an advantage to the Phillies as it is to the Friars. Our pitching staff’s Achilles heel is the long ball – only six teams have allowed more, and other than Tampa, all those teams blow goat anus. We’re middle of the pack at worst in everything else, and even top-five in a few categories.

San Francisco (67-51)

Schedule breakdown: 23 home, 22 away, 29 against .500 or better

Games against Phillies: 3 (Tuesday-Thursday)

Why they’re a threat: Like the Braves, the Giants currently hold an edge  in the standings, and they also have really fucking good pitching. All those categories I mentioned, talking about Atlanta’s staff? The Giants are up there with the Braves in pretty much all of them, and lead the majors in strikeouts for good measure. One through five, there’s no better rotation in the game right now, though Barry Zito’s pitching over his head and Jonathan Sanchez still walks a ton of guys. Madison Bumgarner’s innings are sure to be an issue down the stretch, but he’d be a dangerous lefty specialist out of the playoff bullpen. Speaking of bullpens, theirs is awesome, despite the fact that it contains Guillermo Mota.

Why they’re not: They’re the Giants, so they’re old, and they mostly can’t hit. Aubrey Huff reversed what looked like a steep decline into irrelevance and is having an excellent year. Andres Torres is this year’s “Wait, who?” guy. Our old friend Pat Burrell has taken kindly to his NL return, and Brian Sabean finally figured out that Buster Posey was better than Bengie Molina. Outside of those guys, though? Utter shit. Pablo Sandoval is a fucking fantasy-team-submariner asshole has struggled all season with his weight because he’s a fat goddamned douche who can’t hit anymore. Aaron Rowand? Freddy Sanchez? Get the fuck outta here. Juan Uribe’s okay, I guess, but does anybody really trust Juan Uribe? I doubt it. And their schedule is brutal. They get the cupcake Diamondbacks nine times, but they also draw the Padres eight times, including a season-ending series. After they leave Philadelphia, they have a four-game set in St. Louis and then play host to the Reds. Combine that with the rubber game in their current series with San Diego tomorrow, and this is a huge stretch for them.

Threat assessment: Mild to moderate for the rest of the season. We don’t play them other than next week, and our focus should be on the division. In the playoffs, though, they’re extremely dangerous, especially in a short series.

In Part II (coming Monday, most likely), I’ll cover the other potential usurpers to the throne.