May has some of the better stuff in the Phillies system, but he’s a long way from harnessing it, as inconsistent and at times sloppy mechanics lead to widely varying velocity, break and command.  So far in the Florida State League, the 20-year-old has been putting it all together, sitting consistently in the low 90s while touching 94 mph, showcasing two much-improved secondary pitches in his curveball and change, all while striking out 39 in just 24 innings.  He’s walked 12 and hit a pair of batters, so the control is still shaky, but this has the potential for a major step forward.Back in March (really back in January) I put together a top 10 prospects list. As we know, the status of prospects is a fluid thing. I think things have changed enough that it’s time for an update.

The ranking system is pretty straight forward and is described below. All evaluations come with upside/downside projections and of course rely on the player remaining healthy. For this update, I’ll note any status changes from the previous list in a stock up/stock down format.

The ranking system:

• 5 star – Future All-Star/Elite talent.
• 4 star – MLB average to above average talents.  Players who will consistently put up between 2-4 WAR most healthy seasons.
• 3 star – MLB role players.  These guys may or may not be starters but they will usually be between .5-2.5 WAR per season.
• 2 star – Replacement level/Organizational soldier.  These guys will probably have fringe MLB talent and will struggle to become more than the 25th man on a roster.  Sometimes these guys are briefly useful and sometimes they fool everyone.
• 1 star – Really? is this ever going to show up on a top 10 list?  A 1 star athlete has no semblance of talent or projectability.  When a player is listed with 1 star downside, that means there is considerable risk of him being a complete bust.

5 Star Athletes:

1. Domonic Brown, age 22, STOCK UP: Brown remains King of the Hill by authoring a .347/.402/.607 triple slash with the Reading Phils to date. Scouts were just beginning to seriously worry that Brown’s power ceiling might be lower than they thought after popping only one homerun in April. He’s since allayed those fears by hitting 3 in the early part of May. There’s not much else to say about Brown, he’s dominating non-Strasburg pitcher’s in AA and it’s only a matter of time until he’s promoted to AAA. Brown still has 4 star downside.

4 Star Athletes:

2. Jarred Cosart, age 20, STOCK UP: When I profiled Cosart in March, I ranked him 7th while saying that I thought he would either be #2 or not on the list at all next year. Right now it looks like the first part of that statement is more accurate. As a 20 year old in the Sally League, Cosart has dominated competition over 23.1 IP with 29 K’s, 5 BB, and 16 hits allowed. He has impressive command for a youngster but scouts describe his secondary stuff as raw. His blistering fastball is simply too good for the level. Speaking of blisters, he’s currently having a minor problem with a recurring blister. It’s something to watch, although Josh Beckett is the only guy I can think of who was ever seriously hampered by a blister. Right now, Cosart’s develop awaits further development of his secondary stuff. The Phillies could opt to leave him in low A to toy with weaker hitters or they could aggressive promote him until he reaches a level where he’s forced to develop the offspeed stuff. The Phillies are generally aggressive so expect the latter approach. Cosart has 5 star upside, but I don’t really see him reaching it. If his secondary stuff doesn’t come along, he’s a 3 star pen prospect.

3 Star Athletes:

3. Phillippe Aumont, Age 21, STOCK UP: This is a weak stock up. Aumont has shown flashes of brilliance mixed with mediocrity. I’m still pessimistic about his ability to stick in the rotation, but less so than a month ago. I can see why scouts get excited about him. His fastball is downright filthy with almost splitter like movement at times. Seriously, it’s disgusting. His breaking ball flashes plus but still hangs waaaaay too often from what I’ve seen and been told. He’s still battling through some mechanical changes which seems to be showing up in the stats line. His most recent outing was a 1.2 IP, 4 run, 3 hit, 5 walk affair. The outing before that was a 6 IP, 4 K, 2 BB, no hitter. At this point, I’m tempted to say the only thing holding him back is his command and control. Pitchers who feature fastballs as bottom heavy as Aumont’s tend to have difficulty finding the strike zone. I no longer see Aumont as the closer of the future. If he develops enough to be closer quality, he’s going to be of much greater use in the rotation. Conversely, if his development arrests, he won’t be more than a hard throwing middle reliever. 4 star upside, 2 star downside.

4. Trevor May, Age 20, STOCK UP: I liked May back in March and I still do. May has been ridiculous in A+. He currently has 39 K’s in 24 IP, good for 14.6 K/9. His walk rate is still too high (12 bb, 4.5 BB/9), but it looks better after yesterday’s dominant 6IP, 6 hit, 10 K, 1 bb performance. Despite the control problems, the Phillies might be forced to promote the 20 year old before long. Honestly, I still don’t know much about his stuff, but between the mediocre command and ridiculous strikeout rate, I can intuit that the stuff for greatness is there. I’ll try to get more info on him from BPro’s Kevin Goldstein* when I get the chance. I’m thinking 4 star upside for now with 3 star, high leveraged reliever as the downside. He could quickly leapfrog Aumont if he can improve the control.

UPDATE: I got the following info from KG:

May has some of the better stuff in the Phillies system, but he’s a long way from harnessing it, as inconsistent and at times sloppy mechanics lead to widely varying velocity, break and command.  So far in the Florida State League, the 20-year-old has been putting it all together, sitting consistently in the low 90s while touching 94 mph, showcasing two much-improved secondary pitches in his curveball and change, all while striking out 39 in just 24 innings.  He’s walked 12 and hit a pair of batters, so the control is still shaky, but this has the potential for a major step forward.

5. Sebastian Valle, age 19, NEUTRAL: Valle is bordering on downgrade territory but I’ll give him a pass based on youth and position. There’s still some grumbled concern about Valle’s ability to remain behind the plate, but most scouts seem optimistic. It probably helps that Valle isn’t a prospect at any other position so he can either learn to master the tools of ignorance or he can forget about the majors. As a 19 year old in the Sally League, he’s on the young side and showing it in the early going. His 21 K against 5 BB are discouraging and I may have been just a tad over-aggressive when I predicted his bat would be MLB ready in 2 years. I still think that 4 year projection I ultimately settled on seems right, so as long as he stays healthy the Phillies could have a pretty smooth transition from Ruiz to Valle.

6. Tyson Gillies, Age 21, STOCK UP: The stock up rating has everything to do with me miss-ranking him and nothing to do with his performance to date. After a strong spring training, the Phillies decided they agreed with me and set out to eliminate his Juan Pierre slappy approach. I haven’t really gotten to see him play this year so I can’t report how that’s going. I can tell you his plate discipline numbers are nothing short of disappointing (21K against 4 BB) and he’s had little opportunity to flash his speed on the bases with 1 steal in 3 attempts. The steals are more worrying than the plate discipline since he managed 60 walks against 81 K’s last year. He’s currently in the midst of a 10 for 26 with 2 BB/4K stretch so it’s possible that either things have finally clicked, he changed back to his previous approach, or some positive regression has finally set in. In any case he has a lot of room between where he’s been and his ceiling so we could see his stock rise dramatically as the season goes on. 4 star upside, 2 star downside.

7. Domingo Santana, age 17, NEUTRAL: Santana is currently the youngest player in the Sally League by a wide margin and is plainly over-matched. I imagine this is partly by design, I expect the Phillies want to get Domingo a full season of ball. As such, I think we’ll see him in Williamsport once their season opens up. There have been some encouraging signs from Santana. The power is still there, he has 2 bombs in 78 abs. However he’s struck out 36 times against 18 walks. He’ll need to work on the holes in his swing but he has the makings of good plate discipline and scouts agree. He’s a long way out still, and his upside/downside remains unchanged. It’s nice to see him forced down the list by people leapfrogging him.

2 Star Athletes

8. JC Ramirez, age 21, NEUTRAL: Ramirez has been better than his 4.40 ERA suggests, yet not so much for his stock to go up. He’s done everything you could ask him to do and not a bit more, striking out nearly 9 per 9IP (28K in 30.2 IP) and walking only 7. He’s also allowed a hit per inning. I have no updates on his stuff or mechanics at this time. By virtue of performing adequately, Ramirez should head off to Reading before long. I’m not sure if I see him as a starter or reliever at this point, but like Aumont, the Phillies will give him every chance to develop. For the record, he’s just a tiny step forward from being a 3 star prospect which just so happens to be his upside.

9. Leandro Castro, age 21, STOCK UP: Lakewood’s outfield might have the most upside of any unit in the game with Domingo Santana, Jiwan James, and Anthony Hewitt patrolling the grounds. Castro has silently been better than all of them. While his tools are significantly less flashy, he makes up for it with decent polish. Castro looks like a 4th OF type with tools similar to Ben Francisco. He’s on this list thanks to a quick start in Lakewood, I’m not sure he has any upside/downside at this point. His absolute upper ceiling is a Coco Crisp type player, but I expect much much less out of him. Don’t be surprised if he vanishes entirely from future updates.

10. Antonio Bastardo, Age 24, NEUTRAL: I couldn’t decide on Bastardo or Mayberry Jr for this slot so we’re going 11 deep today. Bastardo remains an MLB ready reliever and will be back at some point this season. In his brief stint with the big club he showed some uncharacteristic control issues. Long term I still think he’s a better lefty reliever than JC Romero and isn’t necessarily a LOOGY despite his penchant for lefty on lefty violence.

11. John Mayberry Jr, age 26, STOCK UP: I’ve dismissed Mayberry Jr as a prospect in the past, but he’s pushed his way back into the discussion. In the early going with Lehigh, Mayberry’s plate discipline has improved to the point where he can be considered a Ben Francisco quality 3.5 OF. He still has big power that could translate to prolonged periods of MLB average hitting although he’s more of a 0 to 1 WAR player. Still it’s nice to see him developing enough to be a part of future plans. There’s a chance he suffers some negative regression, but these trends are a continuation of what I observed in spring training. He currently features a 298/.382/.532 triple slash but between a .383 BABIP and the AAA pitching, that probably translates to a .240/.330/.440 line.

Other Mentionables(In no particular order):

Anthony Hewitt, OF, STOCK UP: The much contested former first round pick is showing signs of figuring some things out. The output is still pretty ugly but the progress is undeniable.

Anthony Gose, OF, STOCK DOWN: Gose has failed to improve in any facet of his game thus far. His improved ISO is mostly thanks to several triples. He could quickly rebound into the 3 star category but I need to see his plate discipline show signs of improvement. I did a quick update a few days ago and criticized his 7 steals in 11 attempts. In the 3 days since he stole 7 bases and was caught once upping his totals to 14 in 19 attempts.

Nicolas Hernandez, SP, STOCK UP: Hernandez is a tall lefty who’s making a mockery of the Sally League. He’s edging towards old for the league and I wouldn’t be surprised if he sees a promotion before his next start. I need to see this continue in Clearwater before I consider moving him onto the list. He could debut as high as #6 if he keeps pitching like this.

Jiwan James, OF, NEUTRAL: James has yet to put things together in the Sally League. Although he’s already 21, he’s developmentally behind his peers since he lost 2 years to pitching. His raw skills are comparable to Dom Brown with some blinding speed thrown in for good measure. So far, none of that has come together, but this is the kind of guy who builds franchises if he figures things out. Funny how the Phillies stockpile those types.

Brody Colvin, P, WATCH

Jonathan Pettibone, P, WATCH

Scott Mathieson, P, WATCH

Austin Hyatt, P, WATCH

Heitor Correa, P, WATCH

Jonathan Villar, SS, WATCH

Jeremy Barnes, SS, WATCH