Phillies Fantasy Values: The Pitchers

Yes, more boobies.

Yesterday, I went over the fantasy values of the Phillies’ position players. Today, a look at the pitching staff. To reiterate: For purposes of this exercise, I’m assuming 5×5 scoring, as well as standard auction budgets ($11-12 per roster spot). Adjust accordingly for your own league’s rules, and remember – it’s often more advantageous to let a homer reach or overbid for a Phillie.

Roy Halladay, SP

Projected line: 17 W, 210K, 2.85 ERA, 1.07 WHIP

Average draft position (ADP)/Cost: 15.4/$40.6

Analysis: While the prospect of Halladay moving to an inferior league and having a superior team behind him may have many dreaming of a historic season, you shouldn’t get carried away. Pitchers bat for themselves, which makes Halladay’s job easier, but also means he’ll probably be removed in certain game situations that he wasn’t in Toronto, likely impacting his win total. Of course, the fact that my projection is conservative tells you all you need to know about how awesome this guy is at baseball. But you already knew that. Doc is one of the few pitchers worth a pick in the first two rounds, and he’s certain to be taken there. In Phillies fans’ leagues, he won’t last beyond the top five. Plan on spend at least $40 in an auction if you want him, and probably closer to $50. I am a firm believer in not paying big dollars or using high draft picks for pitching, but if you’re looking for a sure thing to front your fantasy rotation, Halladay’s your man.

Cole Hamels, SP

Projected line: 15 W, 175 K, 3.50 ERA, 1.18 WHIP,

ADP/Cost: 91.2/$17.8

Analysis: I’ve already gone over why you should expect a great year from Colbert, but not every fantasy manager will see things that way. There will be some trepidation after his performance last year, especially with the horrid postseason still fresh in everyone’s minds. You may be able to use this to your advantage and get Hamels at a relative bargain. In my lone standard draft, I had the choice to draft him or Ricky Nolasco in the ninth round, knowing that whichever pitcher I didn’t take wouldn’t fall to my next pick. I took Nolasco, but had he not been available, I’d have snapped up Hamels immediately. I landed him for $20 in the draft for a league run by LONG DRIVE’s very own A Team. Halladay and Lincecum each went for twice as much. Hamels isn’t on their level in real or fantasy baseball, but he may ultimately prove to be a better value for the money.

His value is enhanced if "hot wife" is a category in your league.

J.A. Happ, SP

Projected line: 11 W, 140 K, 4.25 ERA, 1.35 WHIP

ADP/Cost: 275.8/$1

Analysis: One of the more hilarious parts of my auction draft this week was Happ going for $26, the result of a bidding war between two people who have a clearly warped perspective on Happ’s talent. Compare that to my own haul: Clayton Kershaw and Yovani Gallardo for $25 each, Matt Garza for $20, Ricky Nolasco for $18, and Brett Anderson for $13 (!). If you can’t get him for five bucks or less, just sit back and enjoy watching the homers overpay for a fringe fantasy player.

Joe Blanton, SP

Projected line: 13 W, 150K, 3.95 ERA, 1.28 WHIP

ADP/Cost: 292.1/$1

Analysis: Chubs is a lot more valuable in real life, but he’s not a bad option for the back of your fantasy rotation by any means, especially if he figures out how to carry over the spike in strikeouts he had last season. Definitely worth a late-round flier or a few bucks out of your auction coffers, especially in deeper leagues. You probably won’t see any homers falling over themselves to overbid, either.

Brad Lidge, RP

Projected line: 2 W, 33 SV, 70 K, 3.50 ERA, 1.34 WHIP

ADP/Cost: 215.6/$4

Analysis: The hope is that Lidge’s awful 2009 was due to health issues, and there’s some evidence to support that view. And not that it means anything, but I think everyone remembers what happened the last time Lidge started the year on the DL. Odds are that the overwhelming majority of Phillies fans won’t touch him with a 10-foot pole for their fantasy teams, so he’ll probably be available on the wire until we get a chance to see him in game action. If you need saves late in the draft, though, Lidge is a cheap risk worth taking.

Ryan Madson, RP

Projected line: 5 W, 6 SV, 75 K , 3.00 ERA, 1.22 WHIP

ADP/Cost: 307.7/$1

Analysis: Madson will start the year as the closer, but probably won’t have the job for long, so his value is limited unless your league uses holds as a statistic (Madson’s 26 holds were eighth in the majors) or requires you to carry several relievers. Something tells me Lidge will have a death grip on the ninth when healthy, much like last year. If Lidge hits the DL at any point, Madson’s easily the best choice to replace him. However, the specter of Danys Baez’s mythical “closing experience” may sway Charlie toward using him. If justice is served, though, and Madson gets the nod, he’s worth rostering.

Leave a Reply

Long Drive Community
Baseball Closeouts - Cheap Baseball Gear, Free Shipping.