Speaking of fantasy...

Fantasy baseball veterans are all too familiar with the concept of homers. No, not home runs – the guy in your league who will massively overpay for a player on his favorite team. There’s always at least one. More likely than not, you’re in a league with people who are Phillies fans like yourself, which makes the question of how to value our beloved Fightins’ players a tricky one.

Of course, you can also use known homer tendencies to your advantage. For example, a league I’ve been in since 2003 with a bunch of people I went to high school with is chock-full of Phillies homers. Knowing that, during our auction draft last night, I purposely nominated as many Phillies as possible. J.A. Happ went for a ridiculous $26 (by comparison, I landed Clayton Kershaw for $25 and Ricky Nolasco for $18) while I watched and laughed maniacally. Utley, Howard, Werth, and Hamels were under keeper protection, but I have no doubt that they would have inspired similarly insane bidding.

In this two-part series, I’ll be telling you what kind of fantasy contribution to expect from our red-pinstriped heroes in 2010, as well as what you should be prepared to pay – and when to say “Enough is enough,” and let some homer have his prize. After the jump…

A quick note: A properly set auction budget should allow you approximately 11-12 dollars for each roster spot, and that’s what I’m working with for purposes of this article. If you’ve been given more to work with, adjust accordingly. Remember, there’s no benefit to saving any money. The best strategy is usually to be aggressive early and nab the big-time players, then hunt for bargains late.

Chase Utley, 2B

Projected line: .290/.390/.520, 30 HR, 100 RBI, 110 R, 20 SB

Average draft position (ADP)/auction cost: 4.8/$36.7

Analysis: Not that I have to tell anyone this, but Utley’s in a class by himself at the keystone. He’s OPSed .900 or better in each of his five full seasons as a starter. He’s averaged 29 homers, 101 RBI, 110 runs, and 15 steals over that span. His hip injury doesn’t seem to have negatively affected him at all. About the only negative thing you can say about the guy is that he tears to wear down a little after July, which can hurt you in the stretch run or H2H playoffs. Still, Utley’s about as sure a thing as can be found this side of Albert Pujols, and second base, while not the barren fantasy wasteland it once was, is a notoriously fickle position. In standard drafts, you’d better take Utley with your first pick if you want him, ’cause he ain’t gonna be there in the second. In auctions, anything over $40 for him would give me pause, but it’ll probably be necessary to land his services.

Ryan Howard, 1B

Projected line: .275/.370/.570, 46 HR, 135 RBI, 105 R, 5 SB

ADP/Cost: 11.7/$36.4

Analysis: Unlike Utley, Howard is not leagues beyond his positional peers, and first base is quite deep. Still, the prodiguous power totals are nothing to sneeze at. Albert Pujols is the only guy you can make a valid case for putting above Howard on your draft day cheat sheet, but Mark Teixeira, Prince Fielder, and Miguel Cabrera will provide you with similar production and may come cheaper in a league heavy with Phillies faithful. Given the depth at the position and the amount of top-tier players available, I just don’t see the value of sinking a late first-round pick or $35 into the big man, and the price is likely to be higher in your league. I’d rather grab a multi-cat stud at a thinner position and grab somebody like Kevin Youkilis later.

Jimmy Rollins, SS

Projected line: .270/.335/.440, 19 HR, 77 RBI, 118 R, 38 SB

ADP/Cost: 31.1/$21.4

Analysis: Even with his subpar showing last season, Rollins was a top-6 fantasy shortstop in hits, runs, homers, RBI, and steals. He should be better this year, but I’ve always had a hard time trusting him in fantasy. His declining performance against fastballs has me worried, and his value is further lessened by the fact that I usually play in league that emphasize OBP. His production simply doesn’t justify the price you’ll have to pay for him. Positional scarcity is a definite factor, but Rollins isn’t worth a high draft pick or $21 at this point.

Jayson Werth, RF

Projected line: .270/.380/.495, 28 HR, 95 RBI, 95 R, 20 SB

ADP/Cost: 50.1/$19.4

Analysis: Werth is not going to cost less than 20 bucks in a Phillies fans’ league. It’s just flat out not going to happen. I’d go as high as $30 for him, and that’s setting aside my well-documented man-crush. His production should be similar to Utley’s, though it comes at the much deeper OF position. Leagues which require specific outfield slots enhance his value, as only Justin Upton and Matt Kemp should be taken before him in RF, and he also should have CF eligibility. Only seven other players turned in a 30/20 season, and it’s that kind of balanced, multi-cat production that I love. Fair warning: If there is a female in your league, you aren’t getting him. She will draft him with her first pick or bid triple digits. Just let her, then scoop up Shin-Soo Choo later, and enjoy similar output for a much more reasonable price.

We interrupt this article to bring you more boobies.

Shane Victorino, CF

Projected line: .285/.350/.455, 15 HR, 80 RBI, 85 R, 40 SB

ADP/Cost: 89.1/$15.1

Analysis: I think moving down to the seventh spot in the order will have a slight impact of the nature of the production we see from Vic this year, if not the level of production itself. I suspect he’ll swing for the fences a little more, lowering his average with a slight bump to his home run total. He’ll certainly see more RBI opportunities than in the 2-hole, but he also won’t reach triple digits in runs scored. I also think he’ll run a lot more. Last season, only seven players stole 40 or more bases, and of those, only Carl Crawford hit 15 homers or posted an .800 OPS. Crawford, of course, is routinely selected in the second or third round. In a normal league, Victorino could be a great mid-round pick. In a Phillies fans’ league, however, you’re not likely to get him on the cheap, and I don’t think anything more than $18 or an eighth-round pick  is a wise price to pay. Keep in mind I’m projected a pretty significant increase in stolen bases, as well.

Raul Ibanez, LF

Projected line: .275/.340/.475, 25 HR, 85 RBI, 95 R, 2 SB

ADP/Cost: 107.6/$11.9

Analysis: I’m quite bearish on Ibanez, as the projection suggests. Much as I’d love to believe that his power explosion was a result of moving to CBP and hitting in the Phillies’ lineup, the smart money says it was an aberration. Given his monster first half last season and immense popularity among fans, Ibanez is probably going to come at a significantly higher price than in the average league. Besides, there are a ton of better options in the outfield, and LF alone. Don’t get into a bidding war over him. You’ll regret it. That said, if he slips to you late, or you can get him for around $10, go for it. Boring vets win fantasy leagues.

Placido Polanco, 2B/3B

Projected line: .295/.350/.415, 10 HR, 60 RBI, 100 R, 10 SB

ADP/Cost: 198.1/$4.4

Analysis: Polanco won’t be eligible at third until sometime in April (five or 10 games in, depending on how your league works), but you shouldn’t be looking at him there. At second base, though, he has solid value. If you elect to load up on power and speed at other positions earlier and find yourself without a 2B late, you could do a hell of a lot worse than Polanco. His BABIP is due for a positive regression, and he’ll have plenty of opportunities to score runs hitting second in a loaded lineup. I actually don’t think he’ll be overvalued much by the homers, so you might grab a bargain here. If he goes undrafted, keep an eye on him – injuries to second basemen are an occupational hazard, and odds are you’ll need a capable stopgap at some point during the year.

Carlos Ruiz, C

Projected line: .260/.350/.410, 8 HR, 42 RBI, 48 R, 2 SB

ADP/Cost: 209.7/$1.3

Analysis: Did you know Chooch was fourth in OPS among NL catchers with at least 100 games played last year? How about the fact that he OPSed .900 or better in four of the season’s six months? Production like that out of the 8-hole is definitely worthy of ice cream, and it’s also worth a starting spot on your fantasy team. There just aren’t many catchers worth paying for. Ruiz, who is being drafted almost five rounds later than Bengie Molina, is another guy the homers probably won’t grossly overpay for. I’ve typically viewed catcher as a position you can afford to wait on, and Ruiz is a great late-round pick who won’t kill you in any area.

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