You could make him a Phillie

As promised, today I’m going to be looking at trade opportunities to cut payroll in 2011.

For the purpose of this analysis, I’m going to assume the Phillies exercise buyouts on Juan Castro and JC Romero giving them 7 mil to play with over 6 roster spots.

When creating an unrealistic “let’s trade X, Y, and Z for all your base”-type discussion, it’s important to play the game with players who actually have value in trade.  This means moving them should provide us some payroll relief while their contracts shouldn’t be such that we can’t get anything in value back.  I will not condone Luis Castillo for Jason Heyward speculation.  If the following appears absolutely impossible then I didn’t do my job.

The 2011 roster has three players that fit the criteria: Cole Hamels (1 year, 9.5m with a final arb year), Shane Victorino (2 years, 17m), and Ryan Howard (1 year, 20m).

With the dearth of starting pitcher options on the immediate horizon, it’s unlikely the Phillies can afford to part with Hamels.  However, if they’re looking for prospects, Hamels is the piece that’s going to bring in oodles of top talent.  An unexpected breakout season from Phillippe Aumont could change things considerably or they could pursue a package that includes a serviceable 5th starter as filler.  It’s unlikely Hamels will be shopped, but I’m not ready to dismiss the idea entirely.  Moving Hamels would open up about 16.5m for 7 spots, although the return for Hamels is likely to include pieces to slot into one or more of those spots.

Trading Howard opens up a lot of payroll, allowing management to comfortably re-sign Werth and try to add the poor man’s Ryan Howard, Carlos Pena.  However, the window to trade Howard has passed.  In 2011, his contract will not hold much surplus value, meaning that the return for a player of his caliber would be quite small.  With free agency looming for a ton of talented 1b in 2012, teams might choose to hang onto their prospects.  Adrian Gonzalez may still be on the trade block and Lance Berkman will either be on the block or a free agent, making Howard plan C for the few high payroll clubs that might be interested in him.  Success trading Howard opens up 27 mil to spend on 7 roster spots, although the return is likely to be a cheap, mediocre player that fills one of those spots.

Victorino on the other hand has the potential to be fully expendable.  A 2010 breakout year for Gillies in AA/AAA could have him ready to man CF.  Even if he’s not quite there, it’s easier to approximate Victorino’s value with a Francisco/Player X platoon than Werth’s.  And Werth has the defensive chops to get by in centerfield while we wait on Gillies.  With Vic gone and internal options covering the position, the Phillies would have 14.5m to fill 6 roster spots.  The return for Vic is likely to be minimal, perhaps a decent, cheap pen arm.

As a final note on the trade front, what about trading all of them?  A fresh pen arm for Victorino (ML minimum, 6 years of control), a decent #3 starter for Howard (say 4m, 3 years of control), and a full net of booty for Hamels (let’s speculate and say Justin Smoak and some live project-type arms) would result in a marginally weaker 2011 roster and an incredibly lethal, cost controlled 2012 unit.  That’s about 40 mil left to spend on 3 roster spots giving the team the ability to sign Werth AND a front line SP like Brandon Webb.  The biggest problem with this plan?  I left the realm of plausible reality for MVP2005 about 75 words ago.  Planning to trade 1 of those guys for a reasonable return is a pragmatic attempt to eek out some room in the budget.  Planning to trade 3 popular players for highly directed bounties is just unwieldy and unlikely.  I doubt Ruben has the cojones it requires to deal those players (although a top prospect like Smoak along with Werth and Webb might dampen the complaints).

Honestly, I’d love to see this scenario play out as it would keep the Phils competitive in 2011 and dominant going forward (a lineup with Gillies, Utley, Werth, Smoak, Brown, Rollins, Polanco, and Ruiz looks ridiculous), but the best way to see that happen is to mod your MVP2005 rosters to the most current available at mvpmods.com and make the trades yourself.  It’s not impossible, a creative GM like Billy Beane or Theo Epstein would probably be itching for the chance to couple an older core of Utley, Werth, and Rollins with a young core including three very good prospects, but it remains to be seen if Ruben has either the desire to go that route or the blessing of management to mess with a good thing.

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