One of the more fascinating phenomena I notice among fans, both casual and otherwise, is the effect that expectations have on the perception of a player and his performance. Fans generally have a level of expected performance from any given player, for a variety of reasons: salary, previous and anticipated production, role within the team, and so on. It’s always interesting to see the reaction when a player falls short of these expectations. More often than not, it’s a violently negative one. We certainly saw our fair share of this with last season’s team. A closer look, after the jump…

Cole Hamels: The most obvious example. Coming into last season, Hamels was a golden boy in Philadelphia. He’d been by far our best pitcher the past two seasons, and dominated in the playoffs, only fickle Mother Nature keeping him from a historic 5-0 postseason record. Concerns were raised about his increased workload and whirlwind offseason tour, but many of us shrugged them off. The overwhelming majority of the Phillies fanbase expected Hamels to be the same pitcher he’d always been for us. Well, he was and he wasn’t. His peripherals were similar across

Dude. Not helping.

the board, even improving in some areas, but some rotten luck and a couple of minor injuries early on led to his ERA spiking by over a run. I can’t speak for everyone else, but I had complete confidence that Hamels would be back to form in the playoffs, and his 2.56 FIP in September provided solid rationale for that optimism. Of course, we all know what happened instead. Suddenly, Hamels had become a pariah. He was pressing. He wasn’t focused. Without a reliable third pitch, hitters were figuring him out. He wasn’t “Philly” enough. When he said that he “couldn’t wait” for the season to be over, while the World Series was still going on, the media and the fanbase crucified him.

In fairness to Hamels: Again, his regular season struggles were more of a product of bad luck than bad pitching. Did he lay several turds in the postseason? Undoubtedly. But all pitchers have rough patches throughout six or seven months of baseball. The timing couldn’t have been worse, but much of the backlash was a result of him not living up to the standard he’d set for himself. The fact that Cliff Lee was doing a pretty fantastic job of living up to them didn’t help. As for the comment he made, that was clearly blown out of proportion. Of course Hamels didn’t want us to lose the Series so he could go home to his supermodel wife. To suggest that, as some did, is ludicrous. He could have chosen his words better, sure, but how many of us can claim we’ve never said something dumb under pressure, or out of frustration?

Brad Lidge: I don’t have to remind anyone how awful Lidge was last year; completely without hyperbole, he was historically bad, and since he’d set the bar about as high as it could be set with his perfect 2008, the fall was about as far as it could’ve been. Like Hamels, Lidge ended up on the wrong side of Lady Luck, though his peripherals were more troubling. Still, Lidge was also a victim of completely unrealistic expectations. As great as he was in ’08, he overachieved. There was no way his HR/FB was going to be 3.9 again. He also got a lot of help from the defense behind him in the second half of the season – we all remember the spectacular play Jimmy Rollins made to clinch the division and salvage Lidge’s perfect year. Yeah, yeah, I know, anecdotal evidence. Still true. Of course, even those of us who expected something more like his still-quite-good 2007 season were sorely disappointed. If Hamels and Lidge were the two biggest reasons why we won it all in 2008, they were the two biggest reasons why we failed to repeat last year. A healthy and effective Hamels and Lidge would have made a huge difference in that series.

Jimmy Rollins: 2007 was a fluke. I think most people understood that. But so was 2009, and I’m not sure how many people are on board this time. After years of stubbornly refusing to admit that Rollins simply isn’t a very good leadoff hitter, the casual fan has finally come around…but for the wrong reasons. Maybe it’s just me, but a disproportionately large number of the people I’ve talked to have soured on Rollins to an astonishing degree. Much like with Happ last year, I’ve had to completely change tack on how I discuss him. Rollins still provides value by being a good to great defensive shortstop, and his BABIP points toward a bounceback year at the plate. He will continue to frustrate those of us who yearn for a true leadoff man, but he’s still a 4-5 win shortstop on a bargain contract. Those don’t grow on trees.

Greg Dobbs: The Natural went from the best pinch hitter in baseball in 2008 to replacement level in 2009. A low BABIP and a small sample size are a recipe for disaster. Outside of June and July, his BABIP was something like .200 last year. That’s not going to happen again, which is why every projection system has him around a .750 OPS for 2010. Dobbs isn’t a star, or even a starter, so you might think he’d get less flak. You’d be wrong, because there were serious discussions among fans about releasing him, which is ridiculous. He’s good enough to provide league-average offense and decent glovework at third, and that has value.

Jamie Moyer: Moyer was actually better last season than he was in 2007, when you’d be hard-pressed to find a Phillies fan with the anathema many now have for him. His surprising 2008 played a role in heightened expectations, but I also think it’s simply an indicator of how far we’ve come in just a few years. 2007 was an incredible season, mostly because we somehow made the playoffs with a terrible, patchwork pitching staff. When Hamels went down in August, Kyle Kendrick was our best starter. Isn’t that hard to believe now? Between the acquisitions of Joe Blanton, Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay, the emergence of J.A. Happ, and the long-awaited thrill of success, we have developed much higher standards for our beloved Phils. This is a good thing, of course, but it certainly has played a role in how we view certain guys.

So, who’s next on the “Great Expectations” chopping block? It would have to be Raul Ibanez. There are a few too many people attributing his decline after that monster first half to his sports hernia. I’m sure that played a role, as it’s an exceedingly painful thing to play through, but the odds of Ibanez continuing the torrid pace he set early on were pretty much nonexistent. Dude was on pace for 60 homers. I mean, come on. Also, he was a plus fielder after being one of the worst LFers in the game the previous few years. Until we have more information, it’s difficult to assume he’ll repeat that. CHONE projects Ibanez for 2 WAR, which is less than half of what he posted last season. Phillies fans who have assumed Ibanez’s career year is par for the course may be in for a rude awakening.

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