I’ll get to Halladay in a minute because first I must comment on how horrible an experience this was for my ears/brain. Mike Morgan and Brian Jordan headed the broadcast team last night for Atlanta’s CSS station. Now, if you watched on MLB Network like most of us had to you were forced to listen to the garbage being spewed from their mouths. Also someone should tell these guys it’s HALLaday not Holliday, I seriously can’t stand that. I know I ruined a couple of people’s nights when I sent this food for thought out through tweet. But enough about these assholes, follow me ATJ for what happened with the Phils.

In the first inning Halladay ended up giving up two hits but also struck out the side. On one pitch he made Brian McCann do this weird half swing/jig/dance and made him look completely foolish. I’m pretty sure every Phils fan was satisfied with that inning but according to Halladay he was pitching bad. If that’s him pitching bad then I don’t know what the hell him pitching good is going to be like. Halladay cruised the rest of the way ending with a line consisting of three innings pitched, five strike outs, no walks, and allowing only three hits. Also check out when Halladay saw fit to show up to the stadium:

The two buses that carried the Phillies from Bright House Field in Clearwater to Champion Stadium left at 1:30 p.m. on Tuesday.

Roy Halladay was not onboard. He could not wait for the buses to make the 90-minute trek. He wanted to get to the ballpark earlier, so he drove himself and arrived at 2:15 p.m. instead.

I have a mancrush.

I do, however, have to give the broadcast team credit for one quote during the game. It occurred after Werth homered in the second inning. Video Here.

Jayson Werth and his beard will circle the bases.

Touche, Mike Morgan, touche…

Artist's Rendering

The Phillies have a lot of good things figured out for 2012 already.  Franchise cornerstone and Hall of Fame 2b Chase Utley (15m) will be returning along with catcher Carlos Ruiz (3.7m), 3b/2b Placido Polanco (6.25m), and CF Shane Victorino (9.5m).  The starting rotation remains in good shape, returning Doc Halladay (20m) and Joe Blanton (8.5m).  Cole Hamels will be entering his final year of arbitration and should see a raise from the 9.5m that he will earn in ‘11.  The club holds a 12.5m option on Brad Lidge that should be declined regardless of his performance the next two seasons (1.5m buyout).

That leaves the club with 6 guys set to make about 63 million.  Assuming no major additions in 2011, the Phillies will need a SS, 2 OF, 1B, 7 relievers, 4 bench hands, and last but not least, a manager.  That last spot can be ignored for now.  In the OF, Tyson Gillies and Dom Brown should be making their full-season MLB debuts at league minimum.  Gillies will be in CF with Brown in RF and Victorino in LF.  SS is likely to be manned by Rollins based on recent comments, probably at about the same cost as ‘11.  The entire bullpen could be making close to league minimum, led by lefty killer Antonio Bastardo, oft-injured Scott Mathieson, and a plethora of talented, potentially high impact arms like Phillippe Aumont.  I expect a vet or two in the 3 mil range to get brought in for a bullpen unit cost of about 7.5 mil.  They’ll probably need to look outside the organization for backup C (2ish) and util INF (2ish).  Ben Francisco will be earning about 2.5 to be 4th OF with a guy like Quintin Berry or John Mayberry the likely 5th guy at league minimum.  That leaves 1b, 25th man, and arbitration to 2, 4, and 5 starters Cole Hamels, JA Happ, and Kyle Kendrick (I’m estimating about 18m for the three of them) to solve with payroll sitting comfortably at about 105.5 mil for 23 players.

For a franchise that’s finally entered the budgetary heights expected from the 4th largest market in baseball, 105.5 mil for 23 guys is a nice deal for a roster of this quality.  Working with the 140 mil budget (it’s likely to inflate to around 150 by 2012), the Phillies have about 35 mil to re-sign Howard or scrounge up another quality 1b.  Of course there are places where marginal gains can definitely be made.  Kyle Kendrick is a serviceable, yet mediocre starter and JA Happ is due quite a bit of regression from last season’s rookie campaign.  However, the pitching market in 2012 looks decidedly weak, with Matt Cain the top potential FA.  Other quality arms include Mark Buehrle (supposedly pondering retirement), Jeff Francis, Aaron Harang, Rich Harden, Eric Bedard, Edwin Jackson, and Wandy Rodriguez.  None of those talents seemingly fit as a top of the rotation stalwart to couple with Halladay, but they seem to be fine choices to slot in between Hamels and Blanton and it’s likely some of them would sign for 3 years or less.  Adding one of those guys still leaves a solid 22 million to play with.

At 1b, Howard could be joined with a monster class as Adrian Gonzalez, Prince Fielder, Lance Berkman (if his 2011 option is taken), and Todd Helton (if/when his 2012 option is declined) are all set to become free agents.  The other more princely Prince (Albert by name) is set to become a free agent too, but I don’t see the Phillies throwing a 10 yr/250 mil contract at him even if the Cards do fail to extend him.  It seems likely that laziness will turn into a 3yr/60m offer to Howard and the remaining money will be wasted in the bullpen and on useless bench players (see Gload, Ross).  Still, there’s plenty of flexibility in this 2012 payroll, which is something I will outline in my next post in this series, How to Get Creative With Next Year’s Payroll.

See what I did there?

Did you guys know that this Jason Worth character grew a beard this off-season? Also his hair is kind of long, too. As a matter of fact, he closely resembles Jeff Bridges from that one movie he was in!

We all know Werf hasn’t been very forthright with information about his choice of coiffure; preferring just to let his mane speak for itself (which it has, at length.) My good pal Dave Brown was ballsy enough to ask Jayson if he could touch it, just to prove that it was real. Spoiler alert: hell no.

But just how far has Beard Mania™ gone? Well, pretty gosh darn far. Far enough that the bigwigs at the venerable Topps Trading Card Company have taken notice and may consider preserving the legacy that is Jayson Werth’s Beard in a very, shall we say, personal manner. Check out how after the jump.

Topps kicks a whole lot of ass right now. Their exclusivity agreement with MLB has raised the hackles of a few members of the baseball card collecting community (Yeah, they’re still out there,) but the fact that Topps has churned out some seriously awesome sets over the past few years and seriously endeared them to me. Sure, the 2010 Series 1 cards might be some of the most beautiful card designs I’ve seen in a decade but their other, lesser known sets like National Chicle, Topps Heritage, and Allen and Ginter throw back to years gone by while expanding on exactly what is a baseball card.

In case you thought I was kidding...

After the trading card market collapsed, card manufacturers turned to insert cards to incite collectors into ripping more and more wax. Inserts have evolved from simple “gold cards” to elaborate gimmicks such as cards printed on silk, cuts of game used merchandise, or the actual printing plates used to make the card. In the 2009 Allen and Ginter set, which is known for featuring not only ballplayers but historical figures, athletes from other sports, and animals,  Topps went one step further and included honest to God DNA on an incredibly limited number of cards. I remember freaking out when I pulled a gold foil Mike Lieberthal card in elementary school. I’m not sure how I would have felt then if I pulled the Napoleon Bonaparte Hair Sample Relic.

I tell you all that so I can tell you this:

I contacted Topps through Twitter to see if they had any plans on featuring our favorite facial hair in their updated set of cards that comes out halfway through the season. Turns out, thanks to your pal Redmund and Topps, you may soon be able to own a part of the most important beard in the history of Southeastern Pennsylvania:

My original tweet, a response to a question about preseason baseball:

Topps’ first  response:

Me again, not being able to let go of a joke until it’s beaten to death:

Finally, Topps:

BONUS NON-BEARD COVERAGE:

In addition to baseball, I have a bit of an obsession with sunglasses. I blame it on the fact that I have some crazy weird degenerative eye disease, but my girlfriend blames it on me being a huge homosexual. Either way, Not long after I tweeted the above pic of Werf commenting about how much I liked his shades when a rep from the company responded to let me know the make and model. Turns out Jayson’s rocking Kaenon Hard Kores in a custom white and red colorway. Unfortunately, and I truly may be the only one who cares about this, Kaenon doesn’t actually sell the white frames. Just a heads up, guys: put these out at retail in the Delaware Valley and you won’t be able to keep them on the shelves. We’re all a bit weird like that.

Oh, and if you want to toss me a pair of Hard Kore Large for introducing your brand to literally dozens of new customers, I’d be totally cool with that. You too, Topps.

Ruben's smitten!

This is the final installment of a series in which I attempt to objectively evaluate Ruben Amaro’s performance as general manager. Part I can be found here, and Part II here.

I concluded Part II with a paragraph that I probably should have saved for the end of this post. Unfortunately, there is no such thing as a “edit” function on this blog, or a “delete” key on my keyboard, so my slight error will live on in infamy. Still, when you examine Ruben’s dealings with other ballclubs, as I will today, it remains apparent that he is capable of alternating strokes of genius and mediocrity. The trades, and accompanying analysis, after the jump.

7/28/2009: Traded catcher Lou Marson, infielder Jason Donald, and pitchers Jason Knapp and Carlos Carrasco to the Indians for pitcher Cliff Lee and outfielder Ben Francisco

Like most Phillies fans, I watched with mounting and equal parts excitement and dread as Amaro and J.P. Ricciardi two-stepped together in a constantly discussed Roy Halladay trade throughout the month of July. The names being floated, or at least rumored to be, included the aforementioned players, Kyle Drabek, Michael Taylor, Domonic Brown, J.A. Happ, and Travis D’Arnaud. Which GM was trying to include which players depended on what you read, who you talked to, and where you heard it. The only thing that was clear: Blue Jays fans understandably wanted what learned men refer to as “a buttload” of prospects in return, and Phillies fans’ sphincters were tightening as they prayed that Amaro wouldn’t burn down the farm and piss on the ashes for a season and a half of one pitcher, no matter how awesome he might be.

Three days before the deadline, Amaro pulled the Lee deal out his hat. Frankly, when the terms of the deal were first leaked, I didn’t believe them. I wanted to, but I couldn’t. How could Lee, the reigning American League Cy Young, be obtained for such a pittance, compared to the ridiculous package the Jays were demanding for Doc? After weeks of the Phillies’ faithful going to bed each night, praying that Amaro wouldn’t give up Drabek, Brown and Taylor, he managed to get a similarly talented pitcher without giving up any of them.

What did he give up? Evaluating prospect-heavy deals is more complex than those which are comprised solely of established quantities, simply because a prospect’s ultimate value is still uncertain. Beyond the Boxscore’s Sky Kalkman broke down what could be considered fair return for a frontline starter (specifically, Halladay) here, based on Victor Wang’s research on prospect values. You can access Wang’s article for The Hardball Times through that link, but unless you want to plunge deep into the icy waters of math, here’s the gist: A prospect’s inherent value isn’t solely how well he performs once he reaches the big leagues, but the fact that he is cost-controlled for his first six seasons. Of course, performance plays a big part in it, and much of the hardcore numbers-crunching Wang does is attempting to quantify all outcomes (bust, contributor, regular, star, and everything in between). But the reason prospects are so highly regarded is that, if they pan out, teams get to pay them way below what a free agent who produces similar results would command on the open market. The best player to start a franchise with today would be Evan Longoria, not just because he’s all-around awesome at baseball, or he’s young, or he plays third base, but because his contract is insanely team-friendly.  He’s making $950,000 this year. Lance fucking Cormier is making more than him right now. If the Rays exercise all his options – and they will, barring catastrophe – his first three free agent seasons will have been bought out and he’ll have made $44.5 million in nine seasons. For comparison’s sake, A-Rod has already made $59 million, two seasons into his deal with the Yankees. Assuming Longoria continues to be worth between 5-7 WAR per season, the Rays will be paying him less than a million bucks per marginal win. To paraphrase Gwen Stefani, this shit is bananas. True, most players won’t sign contracts like that, but they’re still getting paid a lot less than they could on the open market. Tim Lincecum just signed a two-year, $23 million deal after winning consecutive NL Cy Youngs, and that was a record AAV for a player with his service time. What kind of deal do you think Lil’ Tim could’ve gotten in free agency?

Probably enough to buy about a billion more piles.

Anyway, you get the point. Back to the matter at hand. What Amaro gave up for Lee was a classic “quantity over quality” deal. Marson and Donald were and are viewed as probable reserves, Carrasco as a back-end starter unless things click, and Knapp, while talented, is still years away and was nursing a shoulder injury at the time of the deal. None of them were premium value guys, with the possible exception of Knapp. Unless all four guys meet or exceed their ceilings, Amaro will have paid pennies on the dollar for Lee. Not to mention the oft-overlooked value of Francisco, a more than adequate fourth outfielder who is capable of starting for long stretches if need be and is under team control for the next few seasons.

After the Ibanez signings and other moves in his first winter at the helm, my confidence in Amaro was rather low. The lead-up to and execution of this deal ratcheted it up several notches. Here was the patience, the restraint that makes a good to great general manager. Amaro handled his first deadline fracas impeccably, refusing to give in to Toronto’s lofty demands and finding not merely a fair deal for a sorely needed ace, but a bargain.

12/16/09: Traded pitcher Kyle Drabek, outfielder Michael Taylor and catcher Travis D’Arnaud to the Blue Jays for pitcher Roy Halladay

12/16/09: Traded pitcher Cliff Lee to the Mariners for outfielder Tyson Gillies and pitchers Phillippe Aumont and J.C. Ramirez

Once again, when news broke of a possible three team deal with the Jays and Mariners centered around Lee and Halladay, there was a ton of confusion in the media as to who was going where, but one thing became clear early on: Phillies fans salivating over the prospect of having three aces, a Cerberus that would terrorize baseball all summer and deep into October, were going to be disappointed. Nobody was quite sure about the other details, but this we knew: Halladay was coming in. Lee was leaving.

Credit: Tug Haines, TheFightins

We’d all fallen in love with Lee in the preceding few months, from his initial dominance of the NL after the trade to a postseason perhaps even more brilliant than Cole Hamels’ run in 2008. His CGBS (complete game bitch slap) of the Yankees in Game 1 of the World Series, complete with not one, but two “did he really just do that?” defensive plays, is one of my all-time favorite games. So while getting Doc was a thrill, it was definitely bittersweet knowing that Lee wouldn’t be pitching in red pinstripes anymore. Lee, for his part, seemed pretty bummed about it, too, and confessed to being “shocked.”

Sentimentality aside, as the particulars began to emerge, I was decidedly unhappy with what had transpired. I understood the idea behind the pair of deals. In the view of the front office, there was simply no way an extension with Lee could be worked out, so Amaro went back to the object of his affection, Halladay. Getting an extension done was a prerequisite, and Halladay took a much shorter deal than he probably could have gotten as a free agent, so the Phillies’ organizational policy on shorter-term deals was observed to good effect. And after making trades for not one, but two recent Cy Young winners, the farm was in dire need of restocking. Cost-controlled talent is going to be vital to the team’s success – and by extension, Amaro’s  job security – over the next couple years, and this deal demonstrated his awareness of that. My displeasure stemmed from the execution, not the idea itself.

Was this really the best we could have gotten for Lee? It didn’t seem like it, at first. It felt a lot more like the deal with Cleveland, except with us getting the short end this time. The media and fan reactions echoed these sentiments, though most were still too fixated on the allure of having Lee, Halladay and Hamels in the same rotation. Would that have been awesome? Of course. There’s not a doubt in my mind that Hamels will bounce back this season, and with those three, backed by our offense, there’s no question we would have rightfully been the odds-on favorites for our second World Fucking Championship in three years. But where would we have been after this season? A severely weakened farm, an aging core, and a huge, gaping hole in the rotation where Lee used to be. Not exactly in position to run shit in the NL East for a decade or more, Braves-style, which should be the goal. Not only are the playoffs a crapshoot where the best team rarely wins, all three guys would have had to get through the season in one piece, which is far from a given, despite their lack of worrisome injury histories.

I still wish we had gotten a better haul (Carlos Triunfel would have been awesome), but my opinion of the package we got is slowly rising. Maybe that’s just me being hopeful. I can’t say for sure. I do think that Gillies has a good shot at developing into a quality leadoff hitter, which we haven’t had for most of my lifetime. My initial pessimism regarding Aumont’s ability to stick in the rotation has abated, though I still think Ramirez is a low-leverage bullpen arm waiting to happen. This year will tell us an awful lot about all three guys. It may yet turn out that Amaro got the better of this deal, particularly since Seattle is almost definitely not going to be able to keep Lee after this season. A few delusional Phillies fans are crossing their fingers that we’ll sign him back, and while that would really make the trade a win for us, it ain’t gonna happen. We’re hamstrung in 2011 as it is without trying to fit another $20 million or so into the equation. Plus, Lee’s almost definitely going to get offers of five or more years.

As for what we gave up for Halladay, it’s important to keep in mind that we got four (potentially five) years of Doc for those prospects, not a seaason and a half. So, while it stung to lose both Drabek and Taylor in the same deal, it was an acceptable loss. If Drabek, D’Arnaud or Brett Wallace (whom the Jays traded Taylor for almost immediately) pan out, the Jays got a nice haul for their ace. It certainly wasn’t anywhere close to the rape job Amaro pulled on the Indians, that’s for sure.

So, as we come to the end of this long-winded evaluation of Ruben Amaro, Jr., what conclusions can be drawn? Amaro has shown a knack for avoiding arbitration with fair or team-friendly contracts. He’s shown that he can be rather single-minded and aggressive in his pursuit of players he’s targeted, which is a double-edged sword. He’s shown an unfortunate tendency to overpay, in money and years, for fungible assets. He’s shown a reluctance, or refusal, to take a calculated risk and allow the market to develop in hopes of getting a better deal in free agenct. Ultimately, what you get is a GM who falls squarely in the middle tier. His flashes of brilliance aren’t enough to put him among the best in the business, but his blunders aren’t egregious enough to excoriate him as the second coming of Ed Wade. Phillies fans should continue to hope that Amaro will minimize his mistakes going forward, while not being surprised if and when he does not. He may not be doing everything in the best way possible to ensure this stay on the mountaintop will last well into the decade, but we’re still bearing witness to a golden age of Phillies baseball. Let’s enjoy it as much as we can.

All bets are off if he lets Werth walk without an offer and Our Beard and Savior signs with the Yankees. In that case, I will probably be found at the front of the mob outside his office, brandishing a pitchfork and a flaming torch. I’m just sayin’.

Obviously a fascist

In an online forum, the purpose of a moderator is to keep everything from going to shit.  What that should mean is squelching the trolls and dumbass kids who fail to contribute even a modicum of positive influence on the forum.  A good forum will have many good users who weed out the bad by constantly making them look foolish.  A person can be made to look dumb only so many times before he/she goes elsewhere.  I like to think that Chris, Ruckus, Liney, and I are that type of user on our particular forum.  We do a lot of good in our forum teaching others how to think critically about baseball and the Phillies.

Which brings me to why I’m annoyed.  I created a thread explicitly to contain our blog’s thoughts.  The idea was to keep things in one place.  We get the benefit of a little promotion while the forum gets the benefit of not having our crap spread around 10 different threads. 100% less “I can answer your question but I’m just going to link you to my blog article” is a good thing.  And of course, because this post has happened, you probably have figured out that thread has been closed.  I don’t blame the particular mod in question for blindly following the rules, what I’m bothered by is people applying arbitrary rules that they have no stake in.  It doesn’t matter to this particular mod if the Phillies forum has a thread that promotes a blog.  He doesn’t use the Phillies forum.  Shouldn’t it be up to the discretion of the Phillies moderator to close threads in the Phillies forum?  I sent this to the mod who closed the thread.

The express purpose of the thread was to make the forum better. A number of PSD Phillies forum users are followers of the blog and like to remain updated. By allowing us use of a thread, we’re able to keep other threads uncluttered. Otherwise our work would be linked into whatever thread was appropriate and discussed there. I see this as detracting from the forum because it changes our post behavior. By keeping updates in one place, we the bloggers can continue to post in other threads as we usually would and the forum goers have the option of following our blog or not.

Further, for those users that do like to follow us, an updates thread provides a richer PSD experience. There hasn’t been any negative feedback in the thread from the Phillies forum goers.

I ask that you reconsider your decision to close the thread. A dedicated thread keeps things much neater and tidier. Further, it keeps everyone involved happy. Please consider re-opening it.

His response:

A thread specifically dedicated to a blog is not what we allow. If the thread is about a Philly related topic and refers to blog it is fine. But threads referring to the blog specifically are not what we want.

sigh I don’t understand.  I try to make things as simple as possible and they want it done the hard way.  I guess the forum will now become an extension of our blog.  Hello Prospects Thread.  Allow me to introduce you to The A Team’s Top 10 Prospects…

Douche of the Day: Billy Wagner

On the day he is scheduled to pitch against us in a spring training exhibition, lets all take a step back and reflect on just how much of a douche he really is.

https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0ArCib-AD2n2VdHRfdDBrMGdrdVdIRkRhTEVUN2dIOWc&hl=en

A number of simple observations should jump out.  First, the Phillies are heavily committed to 2011.  Only 4 players are set to come off the books in Moyer (8m), Werth (7m), Durbin (2.15m), and Dobbs (1.35m).  Pay raises are set to eliminate those savings.  An additional 4.95 mil could come off the books if options to J.C. Romero (4.5m/.25m buyout) and Juan Castro (.75m/.05m buyout) are declined.  With only about 2-7 million to spend on four to six roster spots, 2011 looks like it will be a very boring offseason to be a Phillies fan.  Hopefully the club will make it a shorter and sweeter offseason with a Championship.  Looking ahead, you’ll probably notice that things open up a bit in 2012.  This will be looked at more in depth tomorrow.

For those of you hoping to retain Jayson Werth, the 2011 payroll certainly bodes ill.  This is especially concerning since Ruben and Montgomery have publicly hinted at a firm payroll ceiling around 140 mil for opening day rosters.  Creative options to retaining Werth will be explored in a few days.

Honk Honk

Their offseason will be known more for their non-moves to fix their holes, than their actual transactions.  No Joel Pinero, no Jon Garland, no Ben Sheets, no John Lackey.  Yes, they signed Jason Bay, but unless he can pitch every fifth day, his impact is going to be fairly neutral.  The pitching staff that had a combined 7.3 WAR (only above the Padres, Nationals, and Brewers) will again rely on a post-surgery Johan Santana, John Maine, Mike Pelfrey, Oliver Perez, and a fill-in youngster.  So here we go, after the jump…

Additions (‘09 WAR):

• C Chris Coste (-.2)
• C Henry Blanco (1.1)
• P Kelvim Escobar (.1)
• LF Jason Bay (3.5)
• P Ryota Igarashi
• CF Gary Matthews Jr. (-0.8)
• 1B Mike Jacobs (-.6)
• C Rod Barajas (.6)
• P Kiko Calero (1.4)

Subtractions (‘09 WAR)

• 1B Carlos Delgado (.8 / 3.0 in ‘08)
• SS Ramon Martinez (-.6)
• P J.J. Putz (.1)
• OF Gary Sheffield (.3)
• P Tim Redding (.1)
• OF Corey Sullivan (.2)
• OF Jeremy Reed (-.3)
• P Brian Stokes (0)

Totals: (5.1) – (.6ish) = +4.5 wins

All in all, it was actually a decent offseason for Los Mets.  And trust me, I use the word “decent” lightly.  Decent, as in… not a complete clusterfuck.  The impact of most of their signings outside of Bay is completely negligible (and even his is iffy).  A few thoughts popped into my mind while staring at this screen for the past few hours, trying to wrap this up in a way that’s only fitting for the Metropolitans.

First:  What’s with the catcher fetish? They added three catchers, and only one of them is actually better than the incumbent Omir Santos.  One can only assume Omar’s having a little too much fun behind closed doors.

Smelly Fingers

Second: Is this team pitching optional? I’m all for improving the bullpen, but you’re relying on a Japanese import, Kiko Calero, and some random “prospects” to keep your pen together at the back end, with FRod to close.  And the starters are just a mess.  Too many question marks to not go out and get another starter… but they decided to stick with Oliver Perez (who is laughing all the way to the bank), John Maine (who has regressed the past two seasons), and Mike Pelfrey (and his fantastical 1.62 BB/K in ‘09).  Johan’s going to be Johan, obviously, but what are the odds the other schmucks are going to show up this year?  It’s like the island of misfit toys out on the mound in Queens.

Third:  How hysterical is it going to be watching Jason Bay out in LF? Brad Hawpe’s going to have a run for his money for the “Worst Fielder Alive” award.  You could put a cardboard cutout in left field that would end up with a better UZR than Bay.

Fourth:  What can you expect from Reyes, Wright, and Bay? I’ll start with Reyes, because he’s the tricky one.  While he’s been a 5+ WAR player the previous three years, he also has to stay on the field in 2010 to make any sort of impact.  I’d expect a slightly down year from Reyes as he works out the kinks from his recent medical struggles.

Thankfully for the Mets, DWright shouldn’t be as balls awful as he was in 2009.  Everything went downhill.  His power vanished (10 HR, .140 ISO), his fielding hit rock bottom, and his bat was missing more balls than ever in the strike zone (80.4 contact%, 26.2% K rate).  Certainly wasn’t expected, and shouldn’t completely reoccur this year.  While CitiField will still have that shrinking effect to his power numbers, like steroids on Canseco’s testicles, it will still be a fairly ho-hum year.  As his contact% goes back to normal, his inflated BABIP (.390 in ‘09!) and K rate should go down as well… but down expect the power numbers to magically reappear.

As for Bay… this could be a disaster.  He’s a terrible fielder (-11.5/-18.4/-13 UZR the past three years), and is going to the Bermuda Triangle of ballparks.  While he’ll still be solid at the plate, I’d expect a decline in power to the 25-28 HR range, and the rest depends on the protection that David Wright and Carlos Beltran (eventually) can provide.

Fifth and final: So where do they stand in the NL East? I have to stick them in fourth.  While they’re going to be improved from last season, I just don’t seen them getting past the Bravos and Fishies.  They didn’t improve their defense in their ginormous park (hell, they probably just downgraded with Jason Bay), they didn’t improve their starting pitching, and they added a power hitter

He stole half of this list

It’s that time of year when everyone is publishing lists of all kinds and sizes and varieties.  We at Long Drive didn’t want to fall by the wayside so here is our own list: The 2010 Top 10 Phillies Prospects!  Some of you may recognize this as a slightly edited version of the list I posted on PSD.  I spruced things up a bit by using a 1-5 star ranking system which I will briefly explain in a moment.  We also did a solid 2 minutes of collaborating.  I  included a player’s upside and downside and 2010 age.  All these player evaluations come with the qualification if healthy. These projections are a median expectation.  The upside/downside is provided to indicate certainty.  And check out the links…there’s some video or stats pages for most of the guys.

One final note before I plunge into things.  James at Phuture Phillies recently published his Top 30 prospects list.  His work is far more ambitious than mine.  I highly recommend reading it AFTER mine.  We have differing opinions on a couple things, mostly he’s just more bullish on Gillies and Singleton than I am and less bullish on Brown and Valle.

The ranking system:

• 5 star – Future All-Star/Elite talent.
• 4 star – MLB average to above average talents.  Players who will consistently put up between 2-4 WAR most healthy seasons.
• 3 star – MLB role players.  These guys may or may not be starters but they will usually be between .5-2.5 WAR per season.
• 2 star – Replacement level/Organizational soldier.  These guys will probably have fringe MLB talent and will struggle to become more than the 25th man on a roster.  Sometimes these guys are briefly useful and sometimes they fool everyone.
• 1 star – Really? is this ever going to show up on a top 10 list?  A 1 star athlete has no semblance of talent or projectability.  When a player is listed with 1 star downside, that means there is considerable risk of him being a complete bust.

5 Star Athletes:

The only big fish left...

1. Domonic Brown, age 22: We’ve all heard the ridiculous Darryl Strawberry comp, but Dom Brown is still a true 5 star/ A- rating prospect. He projects to have mid 20s homerun power with peak years in the 30’s although he could end up short of that if he stops developing. He’s mobile with slightly better than Chase Utley speed but worse instincts on the basepaths.  His plate discipline isn’t spectacular, but neither is it entirely lacking.  A lot of people are talking about a 2011 debut and it could happen with a big 2010, but I personally would like to see a 2012 debut so that he has more time to mature.  The total package should combine to be an all star level bat with slightly above average defense in an OF corner.  Start getting excited if you haven’t already.  Brown has 4 Star downside.

3 Star Athletes:

2. Sebastian Valle, age 19: I’m not much of a doubter when it comes to Valle’s ability to stick behind the plate. He has the athleticism for it and most of the doubts come from scouts who don’t watch him and loosely throw that designation around any time they hear a prospect only recently donned the tools of ignorance. The most recent reports have indicated that his defensive improvement is encouraging.  Valle looks like a 19 year old and he will become a little stouter as he fills out his 6′ 1” frame.  He has another 3 or 4 years of learning to do behind the plate to make up for his recent transfer to the position, but his stick could be big league ready much sooner. Expect him to take over for Ruiz when the time comes.  4 Star upside, 2 star downside.  If he’s moved off catcher, he’s not a prospect.

3. Anthony Gose, age 19: Gose is a similar athlete to Tyson Gillies with two exceptions: he strikes out a lot more and he’s more polished on the bases and in the field. He’s as fast as Gillies which is saying something and features superior defense in the central pasture. Analysts seem to focus on Gose (and Gillies) being a potential future leadoff. It’s tough to say who has a better chance of developing into one, but I think Gose has the higher ceiling and a better chance of developing into a long term MLB regular. Expect a faster Shane Victorino out of this guy. Despite an apparently weak ISO of .094 as an 18 year old in the Sally League, scouts seem to think that he can develop gap power.  His place in the big leagues depends on him developing that power potential and/or cutting down on the strike outs.  I think he’ll be a 2 hole or 6-7 hole who adds more value with his glove than his bat. The floor would seem to be 4th OF.  He’s another 4 star upside, 2 star downside guy.  His glove will get him on an MLB bench if his bat fails to.

4. Trevor May, Age 20: I like what the kid has done to date numbers wise, although this is the first guy on the list I haven’t really seen play at all. He figures to be a fast-rising back of the rotation starter. He pitched very well in his age 19 season in the Sally League and will probably open ‘10 there with the goal of promoting him by mid-June.  2 Star downside, but he should be able to find his way into the pen at the very worst.

5. Domingo Santana, Age 17: I agree with Matt Hagen, Domingo Santana really stands out for me. He had a fantastic age 16 season in the GCL. Santana has a lot more to prove at this point despite playing well above his head in ‘09. His 6 bombs in 37 pro games are promising but he could have real strike out issues if he fails to improve that 37.3 K% or .34 BB/K ratio.  His upside is franchise outfielder and his downside is invisible franchise soldier (5 star upside, 1 star downside). The #5 ranking signals the mere adequacy of the remainder of the system as player’s this far from relevance ideally wouldn’t be taking up space on a top 10 list, much less find themselves smack dab in the middle of it.

6. Phillippe Aumont, Age 21: Aumont is the closer in waiting, but it remains to be seen if he can close. His control and command are minuses currently and his secondary offerings have inconsistent reports. What is clear is that they need a lot of work. While being tabbed for the pen, Aumont will almost certainly be shuttled back into the rotation to work on his durability, pitch selection, location, command, and effectiveness. It looks like a long laundry list of things to fix, but Aumont has a floor/ceiling ranging from low leverage reliever to top of the rotation starter (in the unlikely world where everything clicks). He will be a big league contributor someday if he can avoid the injury bug.  The Phillies will need to work hard to fix a lazy follow through which indicates that his power generation may rely too heavily on his arm rather than the whole kinetic chain.  To that end, they’ve asked him to go back to his pre-draft three-quarters arm slot hoping that will clean up a number of issues*.  Given that, it’s possible that there’s actually potential for another couple ticks of velocity on an already hard thrower…I’ll give him a 4 star ceiling but that feels generous.  You’ll find Aumont on a lot of Top 100 prospects lists, but I can’t help but wonder if those authors and the scouts they talk to are still in love with the 18 year old monster oozing with potential that was drafted in 2007.

*Note: Large mechanical changes significantly increase injury risk

7: Jarred Cosart Age, 20: There’s not much to say about Cosart due to his brief run in the GCL this season at age 19. He should get an aggressive assignment to the Sally League to open ‘10 and could even earn a promotion to high-A. He’s a fantastic athlete who at worst case scenario could convert back to his OF/3B/1B roots and start over again if things aren’t clicking by his age 23 season.  2010 will be a big year in his hunt for prospectdom.  Next year I expect him to either be #2 or not on this list. He has to work a bit on his mechanics, but has reportedly made strides since turning pro. 5 star upside, 2 star downside.

wha???

8: Tyson Gillies, Age 21: I talked about Gillies some in the Gose comments. Gillies has leadoff potential and plus plus speed, but his bat plays like Juan Pierre’s. OK, that’s some undeservedly strong hyperbole, but Gillies won’t develop any consistent sock in that bat unless he radically changes his slappy plate approach.  He needs to improve his power and his efficiency on the bases to be more than a 4th OF for a championship caliber club like the Phillies. However, he is likely to be the kind of 4th OF that you won’t mind starting for long stretches of time if the injury bug bites. I imagine a role like the one Michael Bourn would have played for us had we kept him, perhaps with a smidge more pop.  Gillies has steep upside if he can learn to drive the ball better, perhaps as high as 5 stars, but I’m very pessimistic of that happening hence the #8 ranking.  Like Gose, his glove and speed will get him a bench job if the bat doesn’t come around, so his floor seems to be as a 2 star player.  We’ll find out very soon how much of Gillies’ offense last year was him and how much was High Desert.  If he retains most or all of that ability and shows 10 homerun promise, he should be #3 on this list.

2 Star Athletes:
9:JC Ramirez, Age 21: Ramirez has the frame, fastball, and projectability of a #2-3 starter, but his secondary offerings and command are fairly weak. He relies on a heavy fastball that could play up even more in the bullpen and I think his ultimate destiny lies there. Like Aumont, expect the Phils to try to give him every opportunity to figure things out as a starter before converting him to relief. Expect some improvement over last year as he’ll move from one of the best run scoring environments in baseball to pitcher friendly Clearwater or perhaps even a slightly aggressive promotion to the neutral Eastern League.  3 Star upside, probably a future pen arm.

10: Antonio Bastardo, Age 24: Bastardo’s 10th ranking reflects the fact that he is an MLB player now, not that he has any special skills or ability. He’s a guy who at worst should be an effective LOOGY and at best is a swingman who specializes in high leverage relief when not starting. I fully expect Bastardo to be the type of lefty who can throw full innings in leveraged roles. He looks like JC Romero with a few more hits and a few less walks to me. I really wanted to leave him off the list entirely, but couldn’t find a guy to bump him with. He’ll hold his own in the pen this year and will be a long term fixture in the bullpen if he can shake the injury bug. No upside/downside.

Brian McCann spotted a penis.