Every spring there are stories. You know the kind I’m talking about. So and so veteran is in the best shape of his life, so and so prospect has really figured things out, etc. It’s tough to read a single baseball story without stumbling across this theme.

In the world of fantasy sports, when you combine such a storyline with a strong 60PA showing in Spring Training, players start to get hyped. In this article I’ll examine some players who the common fan has developed some very unreasonable expectations for.

Jason Heyward:

Jason Heyward is really friggin’ good at baseball. It’s true, if he stays healthy he’s going to be a thorn in the Phillies side for years to come. He’s also 20 years old. How often do 20 year olds dominate in the major leagues? Basically never. Yet fantasy owners from all over have jumped on the Heyward bandwagon, hoping for a legitimate upper echelon 5 category contributor out of the man.

Why should we temper our optimism? As mentioned, Heyward is but a wee lad in baseball years. He has physical maturation and skill development ahead of him still. He also has a propensity for injury that further amplifies his youth. Not only is he possibly injury prone, he has barely seen any advanced pitching. We also need to consider Heyward’s teammates. Nate McLouth and Melky Cabrera are solid centerfielders. Matt Diaz is very sluggly when batting against south paws. Even the reserves are the type of guys you’d like to get some innings every now and then. The end lesson is that Heyward is going to be hard pressed to get 600 PA. He’s going to face a quality of pitching he’s never seen before, sometimes he will succeed, more often he will fail. The end product in 2010 is likely to look very much like a league average OF. And that would be a great season. How many other players can claim to have been ML average at age 20?

If you’re in a keeper league, by all means, target Heyward as he should develop into a dominating force three years from now and today may be the only chance you’ll ever have to draft him. If you’re in a standard league, start looking for Heyward around the same time you would look to Drew Stubbs, Vernon Wells, or Travis Snider.  Odds are he won’t be there, but that works to your benefit; another owner took a 20th round talent in the 11th.

Stephen Strasburg:

Heyward isn’t the only youngster being overhyped. Stephen Strasburg is legit. Unlike Heyward, Strasburg could jump into the league and roflstomp all over everyone’s shit. His ridiculous repertoire of plus-plus pitches all feature plus control. So why’s he on the overhyped list? It all boils down to playing time. Strasburg starts the year in AA where he’s like to get called up sometime in early May. Around mid-August, you have to start to wonder when the Nats are going to shut him down in an effort not to overburden him. So what we’re looking at is a pitcher who will be somewhere between slightly above league average and rookie Mark Prior for about 140 IP.

Again, if you’re in a keeper league this is probably you’re one shot to get him. If you like him, go bananas for him.  In a standard league, if you can get him after pitchers like Shields, Baker, and Scherzer are gone, then go for it. Otherwise there will be guys who can give you more of the same quality of performance available.

Chris Coghlan:

When a player wins rookie of the year, he is often expected to improve the following year. Sometimes that happens and sometimes that player played off his ass his rookie season. I’m pretty sure we’ll see the latter with Chris Coghlan. I’m seeing him being taken in the early teens while I’m snagging Drew Stubbs, Kyle Blanks, Jay Bruce, and other comparable players in the 20′s.

Coghlan is a doubles power type who’s hitting atop his lineup. He has the ability to bat anywhere between .280 and .310. If you’re in an OPS league, he figures to plug a high .700′s figure in there for you which further reduces his value. Coghlan should be very effective at scoring runs and is a wildcard when it comes to steals. His minor league track record suggests he could swipe up to 35 despite showing little appetite for base theft last season. His power is very middling for an OF and his RBI numbers will be very low. When drafting, think of him as a Runs heavy Franklin Gutierrez. If you draft Coghlan, hope that the Marlins deal Dan Uggla at the trade deadline. As a 2b, Coghlan is a much more valuable property.