You have to care about what the market does because it determines to a significant extent what you are able to do with your roster in the future. You have to spend cash, assets, and roster spots smartly; it’s what keeps good teams at the top. The more you waste, the less you have to work with, and a lack of flexibility is asking for trouble.

Ibanez got three years and no-trade protection. If there’s even a possibility that those were unnecessary – and we don’t know for sure, obviously, but I’m inclined to believe that they were – than those decisions have to be criticized. Especially since those factors may lead to us losing Werth, who is our best player outside of Utley.

As I said at the beginning of this series, I’m fully appreciative of our run of success. I simply want to see it continue for as long as possible, and I’m concerned that Amaro’s methods may ultimately make that difficult as time goes on. I give the man credit for what he does right, but I expect a high level of performance from my GM.

Either way, it definitely is a great time to be a Phillies fan. We’ve come a long way from Ed Wade. Thanks for reading, and for the comments!

If the Phils had the resources of the Yankees, Lee would still be here. If they make it to another WS I don’t know why anyone would talk about overpaying. Amaro will have done his job better than every other GM out ther including Stienbrenner and Epstien (if he is still the GM in Boston). He’d have done it with a smaller payroll, he’d be more efficient. If you get to the WS year after year, who cares what the market is doing? Why would you have to care? Yes, it might blow up in Amaro’s face, but, its still a great time to be a Phillies fan. Thanks for an excellent blog!

I also mentioned in the conclusion of the post that aggressive pursuit of players you’ve targeted can be a strength, but a complete unwillingness to ever take a calculated risk is a flaw, particularly when coupled with an insistence upon overpaying.

It’s precisely because we don’t have the resources the Yankees do that Amaro’s M.O. is going to end up hurting us eventually. You can’t make a habit of impatience and overpayment and expect to keep getting away with it.

But if you’d prefer, here are Ibanez’s OPS marks against lefties in 2006 and 2007: .663 and .650. So at the time of the signing, we had one season in his career that suggested he could hit lefties well, and several that suggested he couldn’t. That deserves to be treated as an outlier until it’s demonstrated again. Ibanez did it again in 2009, so perhaps he is a rare case of a guy finally figuring out lefties at 37 years old. It would certainly be a welcome development, for me. Maybe he can pass that knowledge on to Howard.

As for Ibanez being “penalized for having a higher average,” that’s ridiculous. Singles count toward SLG, too, remember; in fact, they make up the largest part of it. And as much as I dislike home/away splits, Ibanez actually hit better at Safeco in four of his five seasons in Seattle. The big difference between him and Burrell in OPS/wOBA is due to Burrell being much better at getting on base, despite his lower average.

Remember, we’re evaluating these moves with what we knew at the time. Amaro doesn’t get credit for being a genius because Ibanez had a career season and Burrell had his worst year ever. And committing eight figures to a guy who will turn 39 during the final season of his contract – not to mention giving him a no-trade clause – is most definitely a risk. I acknowledged in the article that not offering Burrell arbitration was ultimately the right decision, but you’ll never get me to say offering Ibanez that kind of money and years, in that market situation, was a smart move.

Burrell was a good player for the Phillies for many years. But, he would have received approx. $16M if he was offered and he accepted arbitration. It was time to move on from Pat the Bat and bring in some new blood. Ibanez was the best fit for this team, in my opinion. A 3 year/$10M per year contract was not that significant a risk, in my opinion. And, I believe his performance last year helped to prove that. He rebounded in September and in the playoffs last year. I look forward to him putting up solid numbers again this year. Burrell, on the other hand, can’t be given away at this point.

Oh, regarding the larger sample size being better, not when the data is stale. Comparing stats when these players were 25 years old is not relevant. Prior year stats and recent trends are much more relevant and should be weighted as such. Ibanez’s stats vs. LH hitters as an example. His performance in 2009 validated, to me at least, that 2008 was not a fluke. Good players do adapt as they progress in their careers.

OPS

2004: Burrell .821; Ibanez .825
2005: Burrell .892; Ibanez .792
2006: Burrell .890; Ibanez .869
2007: Burrell .902; Ibanez .831
2008: Burrell .875; Ibanez .837

wOBA (properly weighted version of OPS)

2004: Burrell .354; Ibanez .351
2005: Burrell .384; Ibanez .344
2006: Burrell .381; Ibanez .359
2007: Burrell .391; Ibanez .356
2008: Burrell .374; Ibanez .356

ISO (isolated power, SLG – BA)

2004: Burrell .199; Ibanez .168
2005: Burrell .222; Ibanez .156
2006: Burrell .245; Ibanez .227
2007: Burrell .246; Ibanez .188
2008: Burrell .257; Ibanez .186

Seems pretty clear to me that Ibanez represented an obvious downgrade at the time.

You make a fair point about the “lefty lean,” which is generally overblown. Also, Utley’s platoon split is virtually nonexistent at this point. But that sort of thing can prove to be important in situations where small samples are given tremendous weight – say, the postseason. Still, I’d like to see those numbers if you take away Werth’s production, since he absolutely crushes southpaws and is merely average against righties. Because if Werth leaves, that’s what we’re looking at – and the Ibanez contract will be a big reason why, if/when he walks.