Shortly after our glorious World Series victory, Pat Gillick stepped down as general manager and was replaced by Ruben Amaro. There was, understandably, some trepidation among discerning Phillies fans. Not only did this lead to long-time assistant GM and respected scouting guru Mike Arbuckle leaving the organization, but Amaro was initially under the tutelage of Ed Wade, who was by all accounts a big, stupid doo-doo head. With a season and two winters under his belt, there’s enough activity to fairly evaluate his work up to this point, and draw some conclusions about the kind of GM he is.

Today, I’ll be looking at how Amaro has handled arbitration, contract extensions, and re-signings. Going forward, my intention is to objectively evaluate Amaro’s decisions without relying on the gift of hindsight; that is to say, I’m attempting to judge the merits of transactions based on what was known at the time. It would hardly be fair to expect Amaro to know the future, after all. Analysis after the jump…

12/1/08: Declined to offer Pat Burrell, Jamie Moyer, and Rudy Seanez arbitration

My initial reaction was surprise, and disappointment. Getting draft pick compensation in return for departing free agents is an important aspect of the game, since it helps you reload your farm system. Of course, that only happens if you offer arbitration and the player declines. Obviously, Amaro wasn’t confident enough that these guys wouldn’t accept. Seanez probably would have, so even though he was Type B, I agreed with that. After some thought, I was okay with not offering arb to Burrell, either; with the grim forecast of the free agent market, he may well have elected to take a guaranteed $14-16 million for one season. But I was baffled as to why Amaro didn’t offer to Moyer. It would have been a positive outcome whether he accepted or not. If he did, we’d likely get him at $7 million or so for 2009, unless a contract was negotiated prior to arbitration. If he didn’t and he signed elsewhere, we’d have gotten two draft picks for a 46 year old pitcher.

1/7/09: Signed Moyer to a two-year, $13 million contract

After making a moderate error in not offering him arbitration, Amaro also made the mistake of giving Moyer a two-year deal. There didn’t seem to be any other suitors willing to go to a second year on our favorite geriatric hurler, so why did Amaro? I was unhappy with the second year before Moyer went out and shit the bed in the first half last season. I love Moyer. I want to see him pitch until he’s 50. I’ll always remember him taking the rubber from the pitcher’s mound after we won the Series. But sentimentality doesn’t change the fact that he’s really, really old. Going year-to-year with him was and is an immensely better idea than giving him a multi-year contract.

1/16/09: Signed Greg Dobbs to a two-year, $2.5 million extension

Dobbs was the best pinch-hitter in baseball in 2008. Of course, you have to take that with a grain of salt – specifically, a grain of salt called “sample size.” Everyone learned that lesson last year, when bad luck, injury and a small sample led to a below replacement-level season for him.  Still, his solid bat and average defense at third make him worth his salary.

1/18/09: Signed Cole Hamels to a three-year, $20.5 million extension

No-brainer here. Hamels had voiced his displeasure with his salary prior to the 2008 season, then went out and kicked the NL’s ass all season, adding one of the best postseasons by any pitcher in MLB history. He was a Super 2, and arbitration could easily have led down a rough road for the organization. Instead, Amaro got Hamels’ signature on this deal, which is almost exactly in line with the 40/60/80 arbitration model. The team was able to hold to their policy of not going beyond three years for pitchers, and Hamels can hit free agency at age 29 (the deal doesn’t cover his final arbitration season). This deal was universally praised as fair for both sides, and rightfully so.

1/20/09: Signed Ryan Madson to a three-year, $12 million extension

After Madson’s sudden increase in velocity during the playoffs, Scott Boras was making favorable comparisons to Mariano Rivera. Then, word broke that Madson had rejected a three-year offer. It seemed a foregone conclusion that Madson was gone as a free agent after 2009. The news of this rather team-friendly extension caught most of us by surprise as a result. He’s been a rock in the bullpen for most of his career, and is a valuable set-up man and emergency closer. Another nice deal for both sides.

1/22/09: Signed Jayson Werth to a two-year, $10 million extension

Arguably Gillick’s best acquisition, Werth had played his way into the starting RF job, and my heart, with a fantastic 5.3 WAR season. But with a history of injury and yet to prove he could handle a full season of starting, a short extension was prudent. This bought out Werth’s first season of free agency, and he only needed to be a league-average player to justify the money. Werth has proven that he’s one of the most complete players in all of baseball, fully deserving of my man-crush. His current deal is a ridiculous bargain, and he’s going to get paaaaiiiiid next winter by somebody. The only thing not to love about this deal is how short it is, but that’s hindsight talking.

2/8/09: Signed Ryan Howard to a three-year, $54 million extension

Howard’s situation has always been a sticky one for the Phillies. First, it was his agent requesting a trade after he spent two years tearing up the minors while stuck behind Jim Thome. Then, after his incredible 2006, the team awarded him a record amount for a player with under two years of service, but Howard wanted more. He won his first arbitration case after the 2007 season, setting a record for arbitration award. Meanwhile, his value was slipping: his OPS plummeted by 200 points from 2006 to 2008. But with his counting stats in healthy shape and another arbitration case looming, Amaro was understandably looking to get something long-term worked out. The problem is, they’re essentially paying Howard market value, or even above it, when theoretically they should be paying him 60-80% of it. The arbitrator in his first case really screwed the Phillies over with a landscape-altering decision, so you can’t really blame Amaro here. Still, all this did was guarantee Howard the amount of money he probably would’ve gotten in arbitration, anyway.

12/10/09: Declined to offer arbitration to Chan Ho Park

Unacceptable, any way you look at it. Park was a Type B free agent and pitched great for us, once we put him in the bullpen where he belonged. Another win-win situation: He accepts, you’re bringing back one of your best relievers at a decent salary; he declines (which he would have, since he wants to start) and signs elsewhere, you get a sandwich pick. He ended up signing with the Yankees, where he’ll have precisely zero chance of starting, for a bargain $1.2 million. I know we offered him much more than that initially and he declined, but why weren’t we in on him when the price dropped? Oh, right, because we blew almost $5 million on Chad Durbin and Danys fucking Baez. My distaste for this series of events will be discussed in another post.

1/21/10: Signed Joe Blanton to a three-year, $24 million extension

Blanton was due to hit free agency after this season until he signed this deal, which is a slight win for the Phillies. I’m probably a bigger Blanton fan than most, and while I don’t expect him to duplicate his excellent 2007, I think he’s capable of 3-3.5 WAR per season, especially if the rise we saw in his strikeout rate last year is legitimate. Even if he’s only slightly above average, as he’s been for most of his career, he’ll earn the contract. His salary is reasonable enough that he should fetch a decent return in a trade, if and when some young, cost-controlled talent emerges. It’s yet another market value deal on a team that already has too many of them, but ain’t nothin’ free.

1/21/10: Signed Shane Victorino to a three-year, $22 million extension

I like Shane Victorino. He’s averaged 3.5 WAR over the last three seasons, which puts him seventh among all centerfielders. So why don’t I like this deal? Three reasons. 1) Despite his obvious value, I think Vic is eminently replaceable. 2) Players with his skill set lose much of their value when their speed declines. 3) Given the current roster situation, this contract may well preclude us from extending Werth. I’d much rather pay Werth $13-15 million over the next few years than pay Victorino $7-9 million. Is this fair value? Sure. But, again, with so many market value contracts already on the payroll, we need cost certainty and control wherever we can find it. With Domonic Brown and Tyson Gillies relatively close to the majors, and guys like Anthony Gose and Domingo Santana in the lower levels, paying three outfielders eight figures probably isn’t going to happen. Unless Amaro’s planning on trading Raul Ibanez next winter (I’m crossing my fingers, but not holding my breath), Werth is probably gone. The organization could decide to weather an astronomical payroll in 2011, with almost $60 million coming off the books (Ibanez, Howard, Madson, Brad Lidge, Jimmy Rollins, Danys Baez, Brian Schneider, and Ross Gload will all be free agents), but I’m not sure how eager they’d be to do so.

1/24/10: Signed Carlos Ruiz to a three-year, $8.85 million extension

That’ll buy a hell of a lot of ice cream. Chooch is one of the better catchers in the NL. The jump in power (his ISO more than doubled from 2008) was nice, and his .780 OPS ranked third among starting NL backstops, on top of his well-regarded defense. He’s essentially a league-average player at a thin and demanding position, so the salary’s a bit of a bargain. As for the years, his age (31) is a slight concern, but we really don’t have anyone in the system who will be ready to take over for him before 2013, anyway.

So, Amaro has demonstrated a willingness to, and success in, locking up good players long-term. However, he’s been somewhat timid as far as offering arbitration is concerned, and it may have ended up costing the team draft picks. He has also overpaid slightly a few times, in years or salary. On the whole, though, he’s done pretty well for himself in this area, with only minor mistakes. His forays into the free agent market are a different story, however, and I’ll be looking at those in Part II.

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