Disaster Averted

By now, everybody knows how I feel about Ruben Amaro. Disdain threatened to evolve rapidly into seething hatred if, as was rumored earlier this month, he attempted another ill-advised “three-team” deal to acquire pitching and ship out Jayson Werth.

Well, here we are on July 29th, and the situation has worked out better than any sane, rational Phillies fan could have hoped. Werth isn’t going anywhere, and Amaro deserves credit for getting Roy Oswalt for pennies on the dollar. Granted, he was dealing with Ed Wade, so it wasn’t exactly a triumph of intellect, but I can’t be as harsh toward his many failures without giving the man credit for his successes. Not without being a Mets fan giant hypocrite.

Ed Wade (Artist's rendering).

Seriously, folks, this could’ve been so much worse. Word ’round the campfire was that the Astros wanted Jonathan Singleton, that they wouldn’t kick in a significant amount of cash, and that Oswalt wanted his $16 million option for 2012 guaranteed as a provision for waiving his no-trade clause. Any and all of that would have been terrible for the Phillies.Instead, Amaro sold high on J.A. Happ, packaging him with outfielder Anthony Gose and shortstop Jonathan Villar. Both show potential, especially Gose, but are a long way from helping a major-league club. Mostly important, neither is Singleton, Cosart, Colvin, May, etc. On top of that, Houston is paying nearly half of the $23 million due to Oswalt through next season; the 2012 option remains, though it’s now a mutual instead of a club option.

I’m on record as being something of a Happ fan, but this trade is pretty much a steal. Happ’s value will only diminish from here on out: His performance last year was unsustainable, and though he’s probably still a solid #4, he’s also arbitration-eligible next year. Meanwhile, the farm takes only a slight hit and we’re paying Oswalt $12 million for ~45 starts, not including postseason. So, we thank the Happopotamus for his service, and present him with some jorts while “Kiss from a Rose” plays softly in the background.

The Phillies now have approximately $150 million committed to just 16 players next season, though the bulk of the money received from the Astros in this deal will probably be applied to the 2011 payroll. Even if we plan on letting Werth walk – and that seems more apparent every day, sadly – either ownership will have to raise our budget, or peoples is gettin’ traded. There really aren’t a ton of options as far as trades, though. Raul Ibanez has finally started to hit, and one of his notorious streaks could increase his value to the point where the Phillies could dump him for a non-prospect without paying much of the $12 million owed to him. Joe Blanton is a candidate to be moved, but he’s making $21 million over the next two seasons. Even if he continues his recent turnaround, will there be a market for him at that price? Brad Lidge has negative trade value at this point. Victorino could be moved, but there’s nobody in-house to replace him. Halladay, Hamels, Rollins, Howard, Utley…not going anywhere. Nobody else signed next year would provide significant salary relief, if traded.

I simply don’t see any way around raising payroll next season, for better or worse. For now, though, let’s enjoy the spoils of another deadline swindle by Amaro.

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