Commentary: Phillies 30/30

For those unaware – and you poor, wretched souls who don’t get the channel – MLB Network is once again producing a series called “30 Clubs in 30 Days.” All throughout March, they’ll be examining a new team every afternoon, discussing everything from offseason transactions to news from spring training. Yesterday’s episode focused on the Phillies, and I thought it might be cool to do a running diary of the show, Bill Simmons-style. Follow me ATJ for the step-by-step commentary.

5:00 - Jesus, that opening sequence is annoying. The music, the quick cuts, the graphics…bleargh. Hopefully this isn’t a harbinger of events to come.

5:01 – First look at the crew. We’ve got the voice of The Show, Matt Vasgersian, whose work is usually solid. There’s John Hart, former GM and current senior advisor in Texas; I guess senior advisement is unnecessary during spring training. Hey, there’s Mitchie-poo! I always forget he does studio work for MLBN.

5:02 – Almost the first thing out of Hart’s mouth: “It’s a great time to be a Phillies fan.” You’re goddamned right it is, John.

5:03 – I can never decide if Hazel Mae is attractive or not. She seems a lot sexier at the moment than usual, but that’s probably because she’s talking about Roy Halladay.

5:07 – Mitch Williams just called Polanco “the best 2-hole hitter in baseball.” Sure, if you exclude Pedroia, Crawford, Ichiro/Figgins, Nick Johnson, Michael Young, Adam Jones…are we entirely sure Mitch is aware that the American League exists?

5:09 – At the first commercial break, there haven’t really been any surprises. Not surprising; this series is more for casual fans or fans of other teams. I seriously doubt MLB Network could bring anything up in analysis of the Phillies that would surprise me, given the level of my obsession. Most of the first segment was spent talking about Halladay, naturally.

5:10 – Great commercial for The Show featuring cover boy Joe Mauer. The guy who plays the Sony spokesman always completely nails his delivery in every ad.

5:15 – Studio guys just finished a solid interview with Jamie Moyer, who, by the way, pitched three scoreless in a “B” game against Toronto yesterday. The fifth starter spot is one of the few up for grabs right now. Moyer’s probably the front-runner, but Kyle Kendrick has a real shot.

5:18 – Their breakdown of the rotation was almost cursory, mostly a discussion about Hamels’ disappointing ’09 being the result of getting caught up in the hype after his ridiculous postseason run in ’08. Predictably, no mention of his unlucky BABIP or the fact that his peripherals suggested he was pitching just as well as ever. No discussion of Happ’s likely regression, even from a non-saber perspective of “Dude came outta nowhere, who knows what he’ll do next year?”

5:20 – During an interview with Hazel Mae, Lidge cites the bullpen’s strong performance in 2008 and emphasizes the importance of not only his health and return to form, but J.C. Romero’s.  As the closer, and coming off a historically awful (though unlucky) season, Lidge will be the one scrutinized, but Romero is a crucial cog as well.

5:22 – They’re overstating our lack of lefty reliever depth as a problem. Bastardo’s numbers against LHB last year were pretty awesome (only 8.1 innings, but a double digit K rate and 3.34 FIP despite a .400 [!] BABIP work for me). Romero should be fine. Moyer might be the insurance policy, especially if Kendrick beats him for the last spot in the rotation. And serviceable LOOGYs aren’t tremendously difficult to come by.

5:23 – Jayson Werth’s beard looks even more glorious on TV than in pictures.

5:25 – One of those commercials for that Golden Corral restaurant just came on. They disturb me. First of all, I’d never even fucking heard of this place until the last year or so, when commercials suddenly appeared en masse out of nowhere. Second, they always say you can get their buffet or whatever the hell it is for “around” 10 bucks. What is the reason for this vagueness? Finally, the idea of getting that much seafood for that cheap makes me dubious of its quality.

5:27 – On to the offense now. One of the guys, I think Mitch, said that Rollins has been “a big part of the Phillies’ offensive success the last few years.” Well, he was much less a big part of our success last year than a big hindrance. What with that sub-.300 OBP out of the leadoff spot.

5:33 – In the past minute, Williams and Hart have twice used Gold Gloves as a valid measurement of defense, said that the Phillies “play the game the right way,” and said that Utley has had “issues” in the field. I’ll take the occasional sailed throw if it comes with by far the best defense of any second baseman. The fact that Utley’s never won a Gold Glove is another in an avalanche of reasons why that award is a joke.

5:36 – Commercial for 2K10 is actually decent. Shame the same can’t be said about the game. MLB 2K10: Rated S for “Shitty.”

5:39 – John Hart just said that Domonic Brown will “probably” start the season in the minors. Considering we have three outfielders worth between three and five wins apiece and a fourth outfielder who would probably be at least average as a starter, as well as the fact that Brown has had all of 147 AB above High-A, “probably” is an understatement of probably retarded proportions.

5:41 – During his interview with Hazel Mae, Ryan Howard said that he thinks he can hit .300 again, and that he “feels like [he's] hit .300 every year,” when you account for all the hits he’s lost to the shift. I sure wish official scorers and umpires saw things the same way, but unfortunately, balls hit into the shift still count as outs.

5:42 – All-time homegrown Phillies team, according to MLB Network…only two real surprises. First, Ryne Sandberg over Utley. Yes, Sandberg was a Phillies prospect, but he  played a whopping four innings in a Phillies uniform before he was traded to the Cubs. Never mind the fact that Utley, by the time he retires, will rank as a top-10, and possibly even top-five, second baseman in baseball history. The other thing is less a gross oversight than a sad truth, as Ricky Bottalico is the best homegrown closer in team history. Yeah, closers and saves are dumb and have only really existed since the 70′s, but Ricky Bottalico should never be considered anybody’s best anything.

5:47 – Another indication of just how shitty most of the 127-year history of our beloved Fightins has been: There’s a segment of the show called “Prime 9″ which covers the top nine moments in franchise history. Our #9: Game 1 of the 1950 World Series…which we lost. Awesome.

5:48 – Moon Shot at #7, Rollins’ Game 4 double last year at #6. I’d switch ‘em up, personally. Both were incredible, but that Matt Stairs homer was majestic. Jonathan Broxton is filthy, and I have no idea how we’ve wrecked his shit in successive postseasons. Personally, I’d be scared to even enter the batters’ box against that guy: Not only does he have a heater that can hit triple digits, but I can never shake the feeling that he’s always about to charge the plate and try to eat whoever’s at bat. That probably would’ve been a better strategy against Rollins last year. Broxton’s about eight times his size. Jimmy would never have had a chance.

5:49 – Schmidt’s 500th is #4. The homer itself isn’t that amazing, other than being a milestone, but Harry’s call takes it to a whole other level. Absolutely nails it.

5:51 – The top two on the list are Lidge and McGraw’s championship clinching strikeouts. The studio guys all seem to think that McGraw’s should have been ranked #1. I can’t really agree, if only because I wasn’t alive to see it, whereas I was drunk and delirious in a bar packed with Phillies fans when Lidge blew away Hinske to bring home the city’s first championship in my lifetime. One of the best moments of my life.

5:53 – Pretty lackluster interview with Schmidt. He manages to spend a full minute talking about Polanco’s move to third without actually saying anything.

5:58 – Projections/predictions to cap the show. BP’s got us winning 90 games and finishing six games ahead of the Braves. All three in the studio pick the Phils to win the East for the fourth straight year, but nobody offers an opinion on how likely we are to defend the league pennant again.

What do you think?

All in all, a rather pedestrian hour. I didn’t expect much. I like MLB Network a lot, but they’re still a media outlet for the casual fan, and so they aren’t going to do much in the way of advanced analysis. Also, like I said before, the likelihood of them bringing up anything I don’t already know or haven’t thought about is essentially nil, since I’ve spent all offseason pouncing on any Phillies-related material I can find. It’s tough for a studio show to tell us much that we don’t already know, with the instantaneous nature of the Internet.

It won’t exactly be instantaneous, but the eagerly-anticipated second part of my Ruben Amaro evaluation series will be up before the weekend is out. In the meantime, check out A Team’s post today about position battles.

10 Responses to “Commentary: Phillies 30/30”

  • maxL:

    Personally, I’m fascinated the talking heads even know what Baseball Prospectus is, let alone heed its predictions. They are a rather simple bunch when it comes to stats, after all.

  • The best was how appalled Bob Costas was that there is a stat that said Ryan Howard was better defensively in ’09 than Teixeira. He was not willing to accept it.

  • maxL:

    Wow, Texeira was -4.1 in UZR/150 last year. Unexpected.

  • 1B is a hard position to judge, since most of the pressure is put on not fucking up at balls being played right at you. Tex isn’t a fantastic 1B in the ways of lateral movement, which is much of what UZR judges players on.

    I’d rather have a 1B that can catch a ball hit/thrown right at him, than being able to make diving stops away from the bag, which are fairly hit or miss.

  • maxL:

    Yes, well, UZR is the one fielding metric that I actually understand, so that’s generally the one I refer to.

  • Oh, completely understood.

  • Post#1/MaxL,

    Unfortunately, BP’s ability to predict anything is for shit right now. Their PECOTA system was improperly translated to spreadsheet form which means everything’s off a bit. They’ve brought Clay Davenport (the inventor of PECOTA and WARP among other things) back fulltime to try to fix the issue/appease subscribers.

  • The moral of the last post is I’d rather they used CHONE or Oliver predictions. Or you know, not worried about predcting.

  • For the record, CHONE’s defensive projections are beyond worthless. Elvis Andrus worth -1.0 runs? Michael fucking Young a 0.0? Bitch, please.

  • maxL:

    Whatever, I’m a casual stat-head, I use Fangraphs, anyway.

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