Also donuts. OM NOM NOM

The major angles being covered on the Phils’ rotation in spring training are Roy Halladay being ridiculously good at baseball, Cole Hamels’ return to form after a nightmarish postseason, and the competition for the final spot. Receiving minor attention is J.A. Happ’s quest to build on his overachieving rookie year. Nobody is really talking about Joe Blanton, however. I understand why: He’s viewed as a steady workhorse, a guy who will give you a solid, unspectacular 200 innings every year. Guys like Blanton are sort of like oxygen – it’s important, but you generally don’t notice it until it’s gone. As our third starter, he’s a pretty vital cog, and will be through 2012, thanks to the extension he signed  in January – and a close look at his 2009 performance raises a lot of interesting questions about what we can expect from our favorite Kentucky-fried righty going forward. Check it out after the jump.

Coming into last season, I expected good things from Blanton. His 2007 (3.50 FIP, 5.6 WAR) was unlikely to be repeated, or even approached, but I anticipated a better year than the one he’d put up in 2008. In April, he posted a disgusting 8.41 ERA and 6.00 FIP, averaged just five innings per start, and gave up six homers in only 20 1/3 innings; however, he also struck out nearly a batter per inning and his command was solid. The primary culprits for this “horrendous” start: a ridiculous .420 (!!!) BABIP and 22.2 HR/FB percentage. While many fans were quick to panic, I remained confident that Blanton would bounce back – and intrigued by his sudden leap in K rate.

On May 26, Blanton started a home game against the Marlins with an ERA of 7.11. He went seven shutout innings, striking out 11 batters, a career high, and only the second time he’d reached double digits in a game. Blanton pitched at least six innings in all but two of his next 14 starts, allowing more than three runs only once. His final 23 starts, he had a 3.16 ERA, but again, a deeper look at his play yielded some interesting results:

Looking at monthly splits is a tricky proposition, of course; there’s so much opportunity for craziness in such a small sample that it’s difficult to draw any real conclusions. As any sabermetric enthusiast knows, there are only a few things a pitcher can truly control: strikeouts, walks, and home runs. Blanton’s strikeout rate steadily dropped each month before spiking in September. His walk rate also shot up in the final month, after plunging below 2 in the previous two months. His homer rate spiked again in June, but was otherwise more or less normal. The steady decline in strikeouts would seem to indicate that his early prowess in that area was unsustainable, yet his worst month in that regard was still well above his career rate coming into the season.

A quick look at his Pitch F/X data gives us something of an idea, though. His velocity is pretty consistent with previous years. His contact and swing rates didn’t change dramatically. The biggest change was the effectiveness of his fastball, which was 17 runs worse than it had been in 2008. But Blanton, after four scoreless innings against the Tigers today, credited his changeup. “It was a really big pitch for me. It’s a big pitch in today’s game – it really keeps hitters off balance. Last year, I used it against righties and lefties both and it helped me out in a lot of situations when I didn’t have a good curveball or a good slider. I was able to get them out on changeups and it helped out a lot last year.” Blanton’s changeup was indeed more effective last year than ever before, worth 11 runs above average, and his slider was much improved over the previous season. However, in 2007, his slider was one of the best in baseball, his changeup was almost as good as this past year, and he had a plus fastball – yet his K/9 was a pedestrian 5.48 that season.

WTF, Chubs?

Confusing, no? I was about ready to throw my hands up, Buddy Boy style, when I remembered Occam’s Razor: The simplest explanation is usually the correct one. Perhaps Blanton owes his extra strikeouts to the simple fact that he moved to the National League. Sure enough, the big guy fanned 9 hole hitters 38 percent of the time, easily his highest rate against any spot in the lineup (Next highest: 24.4 percent of No. 3 hitters, though they OPSed 1.000 against him.) His K/9 with the Phils in 2008 was 6.75 – not the pace he set in April and May last year, but more or less in line with the other months. Without any other reasonable explanation that can be proven, it can be concluded with relative confidence that JoeBla’s just taken advantage of the lack of a DH over here, where we play real baseball.

Overall, Blanton’s K/9 last season was 7.5, nearly a 50 percent increase over his previous career high. Is it sustainable? Not entirely. But a 7.00 K/9 is above average, and not unreasonable to expect. Assuming Blanton’s elevated homer rate regresses to the mean, he should turn in a FIP around 4 and and an ERA slightly below that. That’s roughly a 3.5 WAR season over 200 innings, or over a win better than his production in 2009. No, Blanton won’t likely be partying like it’s 2007. But fortunately for us, he doesn’t have to be an ace.

This weekend, I’ll take a closer look at what you should expect from J.A. Happ this year.

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