In the interest of time, I will suppress my inner English major and not ridicule the grammar, syntax, or vocabulary present in these pieces. (Because there aren’t any of those things! Zing!)

…Sorry. Anyway, follow the jump.

Article the First: Ben Francisco is the Answer to Replacing Jayson Werth

Why not just use Francisco as the starter? …[He] was largely used as a pinch hitter… If he had chances to start every day, he could find a rhythm and become more productive than an off-the-bench player.

Francisco’s line in 2010: .268/.327/.441

Francisco’s career line, the bulk of which came as a frequent starter in Cleveland: .263/.329/.446

But, I get it. It’s not easy to be a bench player, and it’s not unheard of for a player to perform better when he gets consistent at-bats. It is at least conceivable that Francisco could improve if he got more than four or five plate appearances a week.

Comparing Francisco’s stats to Werth’s stats for 2010, we can see there is not a big difference in the ratio of their stats between these two players.

Werth in 2010: .296/.388/.532

That’s 150+ points of OPS. That is the difference between Evan Longoria and James Loney, or Ryan Howard and Jhonny Peralta, or Chase Utley and Jeff Francoeur last year. Simply put, it is the difference between being an elite player and being a fringe major-leaguer.

The article then extrapolates Francisco’s stats over a full season, which is flawed in a tremendous number of ways. The author produces a chart with the results, which show Werth as having markedly better numbers across the board, except in RBI where their totals would be pretty much identical, and concludes that…

If Francisco’s adjusted numbers proved to be his true production over the whole season, he would be a perfect replacement for Werth.

…citing “RBI-producing ability,” which is not a thing.

How can there be this paradox in [RBI] numbers? The answer to that question is that Werth struck out about 27 percent of the time he batted, whereas Francisco only struck out 19 percent of the time he batted. Therefore, it is clear that Francisco strikes out eight percent less frequently than Werth.

Another answer to this question is that Werth bats for a much lower average when runners are in scoring position than Francisco does. Werth’s batting average with runners in scoring position was only .186, whereas Francisco’s average with runners in scoring position was .306.

Francisco did indeed bat .306 with runners in scoring position last year. In a whopping 49 plate appearances. He also slugged .388. Also:

Werth career with RISP: .260/.386/.433

Francisco career with RISP: .246/.326/.377

Therefore, it is clear that Francisco really is not as good at Jayson Werth at hitting baseballs, no matter what situation is at hand. But if you were going to employ sample sizes so small that they are borderline useless, you could have pointed out that Francisco had a .284/.344/.557 line against lefties last year.

The article basically tries to make the point that Francisco is overlooked, which I can sort of agree with. If he is given the starting job in right field, it will not be a terrible thing. He will probably do what he has always done as a big league player, which is be an average hitter and mediocre defender. Whether Dom Brown can do better than that remains to be seen, although I’m of the opinion that it’s probably better to give our hotshot prospect a shake at starting, rather than a 29-year-old who has likely already peaked. Sit Brown or Ibanez occasionally against lefties and let Benny Fresh get some PT, and things should work out okay. But to posit Francisco as someone who can produce on Werth’s level is just nanners.

Source.

Hate Werth all you want for struggling with runners on last year, or seizing his one opportunity to get Oprah-rich at the same time Cliff Lee was leaving money on the table to come back. That’s your prerogative. But his absence in the lineup will be felt.

Article the Second: Is Joe Blanton Headed to St. Louis?

In the wake of Adam Wainwright’s injury, it’s natural to wonder if they might have an interest in acquiring the fifth Beatle of our rotation. Such a transaction wouldn’t be totally out of left field, either. But then:

I am talking about a deal where the Phillies would acquire Colby Rasmus in exchange for Blanton.

…Come again?

The Phillies would most likely have to include some money towards Blanton’s remaining salary.

Yes. And a shitload more.

The question is: Would the Phillies want Rasmus if the Cardinals were willing to include him in the deal?

That’s the question? Would the Phillies want Rasmus – a 24-year-old who hit .276/.361/.498 last season, can play any of the three outfield spots at an above-average level, and is under team control for the next four seasons – for their fifth starter? A fifth starter who they most likely at least tried to deal all winter long? A fifth starter who is making $17 million over the next two seasons?

The problem lies… in the fact that Rasmus hits from the left side of the plate…

Yes, Rasmus is a lefty. But the Phillies have the oldest roster in the majors, and the most expensive outside of Boston and New York. Acquiring a young, cost-controlled player like Rasmus for an expendable (although more valuable than most think) piece like Blanton is a win across the board. Getting Rasmus would allow the Phillies to do any number of things. They could trade Raul Ibanez or Shane Victorino. They could trade Brown. They could even flip Rasmus himself. You don’t shy away from adding cheap talent. You do it, and you worry about making the logistics work later.

After throwing out a bunch of numbers regarding Rasmus’ ability to hit southpaws, the author concludes:

I think it would make sense for the Phillies to accept a deal of Rasmus for Blanton (plus cash) if the opportunity arises.

So does anyone who has ever thought a single thought about baseball. Unfortunately, the other teams have a silly habit of liking deals which also make sense for their club. Unless Ruben Amaro has some sort of humiliating photo of John Mozeliak we’re not aware of, this trade will never, ever happen.

The Lakewood BlueClaws saw fit to throw us a bone.

I’ll just leave this here.

H/T to the BlueClaws and @tonyisdynamic.

I stand before you today, humble, and I do that very thing.

Soooorrrrrrryyyyyy.

You may recall that back in April, when news of the Ryan Howard extension broke, I wrote a post on this blog excoriating Ruben Amaro, going so far as to call for his dismissal as general manager. This came on the heels of an offseason that, outside of acquiring Roy Halladay, I viewed as poorly handled. From the dubious Cliff Lee trade to the Danys Baez signing, I felt Amaro was making avoidable, if minor, mistakes that would jeopardize the Phillies’ chances in future seasons. The Howard extension was anything but minor, and I promptly, in the parlance of our times, lost my shit.

Let me make one thing perfectly clear: My opinion of that contract has not changed one iota. I still believe everything I wrote about it at the time, and I dread the last few years of it. My suggestion that Amaro deserved to lose his job over the deal, however, was overly harsh and hasty.

I do not make this assertion simply because Amaro engineered a mulligan on one of his biggest blunders and returned Cliff Lee to the fold late last night. Nor am I ready to completely absolve him for his various mis-steps, or anoint him one of the best in the business. I remain concerned about the future of this franchise, and about the sustainability of Amaro’s approach. I am merely retracting a statement made in the heat of the moment, and reaffirming the conclusions I ultimately reached in my evaluation of his tenure back in March.

I don’t plan to stop judging his performance, and I expect to endure a fair amount of criticism for that. Perhaps the afterglow of last night’s unexpected signing will fade, perhaps not; right now, however, Amaro is a king in the city of Philadelphia. To speak ill of him, even in an objective manner, will inspire backlash. To this I say: Shit happens. Do what you gotta do, I’ll do what I gotta do. Just know that I do it out of love for my team. Yet as critical as I have often been of Amaro, I have always taken pains to give him ample credit for his successes, of which there have been several. And the more I look at the overall picture, the more I think Amaro just might have a plan for the future.

NO WAI!

The Lee signing, like any long-term, big-money contract, is risky. There is no denying that. The Phillies broke their longstanding policy of going beyond three years with pitchers (and, increasingly, any player) and made him one of the richest pitchers in the history of the game. Even with Lee taking considerably less money and one less guaranteed year than either the Yankees or Rangers offered him to come back to Philly, he’s still a 32 year old pitcher with potential back problems getting paid serious “fuck you” money for the next several seasons. If the sixth year option vests, he will be getting paid a staggering $27.5 million for his age 38 season, the highest salary of any pitcher in MLB history.

All that is fairly obvious. But what does it mean, for 2011 and beyond?

2011

As it stands, the Phillies have about $160 million committed to 20 players, with Lee’s deal being backloaded. This does not include Ben Francisco or Kyle Kendrick, who are arbitration-eligible. Joe Blanton, who is owed $17 million split evenly over the next two seasons, is being shopped. The Phillies may look to deal him for a righthanded-hitting outfielder to platoon with Raul Ibanez and Dominic Brown in the corners, in addition to salary relief. Ibanez might also be a trade candidate, but with the outfield already thin and the market for the 38-year-old probably likewise, it’s doubtful he’s going anywhere. A quality backup for Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley would also be a welcome addition to the roster, but there don’t appear to be many options on that front.

2012

Assuming Blanton is traded – which is likely, but not certain – the Phillies will have around $100 million committed to eight players. Roy Oswalt, Brad Lidge, and Dennys Reyes have options. Oswalt’s is a lock to be exercised barring catastrophe in ’11. As long as Reyes doesn’t completely embarrass himself this season, his option probably gets picked up as well. I can’t fathom Lidge’s option being exercised at $12.5 million. They may try to bring him back on a cheaper deal. Ibanez and Baez won’t be back. Gload and Schneider most likely walk as well. Cole Hamels’ strange extension after the 2008 season didn’t buy out his last year of arbitration, and he figures to see a raise into the $12-14 million range. Lastly, Jimmy Rollins. This year is important in gauging how much he has left in the tank and what kind of offer he’ll get, but with no real prospects at shortstop and few interesting names in free agency, it’s hard to imagine the Phillies letting him walk unless he’s abjectly awful this year or demands an outrageous contract. His defense alone justifies keeping him on a reasonable salary.

2013

Here’s where things get really interesting. Lee, Halladay, Howard, and Utley are the only commitments, albeit at a total of $85 million. Ruiz, Polanco, and Contreras have options for a combined $13 million, though it’s entirely possible that none of them will be picked up, considering their ages. Hamels hits free agency, and is likely to be looking for a deal similar to the ones signed by CC Sabathia and Johan Santana, given his age and handedness. Oswalt’s contract expires, and he’s claimed that he’ll retire when it does. Even if not, his age, build and likely salary demands probably preclude a return. Victorino’s deal also ends.

2014

We’re down to Lee and Howard, with a $20 million option on Halladay that almost has to be exercised if his arm hasn’t fallen off. Utley will likewise be retained if he still has a pulse, and maybe even if not. You could probably prop him up out there at second, Weekend at Bernie’s-style, and he’d be league-average at worst.

2068 Opening Day second baseman.

Obviously, there will be plenty of acquisitions, departures, injuries, and unforeseen developments in the interim, but looking at how the next few years (the realistic window for this aging core) are laid out makes the front office’s strategy pretty obvious. Consider the farm system. It doesn’t feature much in the way of MLB-ready talent – basically, Dom Brown and that’s it – but to quote one scout, nobody has more talent in A-ball right now. The continued development of guys like Jonathan Singleton, Jarred Cosart, and Brody Colvin is absolutely crucial to the Phillies’ future. If enough of those prospects pan out, that infusion of cheap talent should occur right as the current core declines and/or departs. With luck, some savvy and continued commitment to a high payroll from ownership, it’s conceivable that the Phillies could actually avoid a rebuild/retool/mediocrity phase and continue their run of success. Is it likely? Probably not, especially if the front office continues to add high-priced veterans at the expense of minor leaguers and they have a bad draft or two (entirely possible, given their penchant for taking upside and tools over polished products).

In summation, the future may not be as totally fucked as some once believed. Or, it might. But for right now, the Phillies have a rotation that deserves to be in the discussion of the best in MLB history, and a great chance to win another championship or two in the next three years. Sometimes it’s hard to remember the days when nobody wanted to play in Philadelphia, but those days weren’t so long ago. Even as a critic of Amaro, as someone who expects nothing less than excellence and isn’t afraid to bitch when he’s disappointed, I can sit back and marvel at the transformation of this franchise, and be happy.

Above: Phillies' fanbase.

Word ’round the campfire is that the Phillies are still in on Lee and looking for a new home for Joe Blanton.

Ken Rosenthal confirmed less than an hour ago that the Phillies are the infamous “mystery team” we’ve been told is skulking about in the shadows behind the Rangers’ and Yankees’ high-profile courting of the free agent lefty. Jon Heyman reported that the team was shopping Blanton not long after. And yes, I checked to make sure both tweets came from the legitimate accounts of the reporters in question, because unlike Michael Kay, I am capable of fact checking.

I expect this to result in a crippling case of blue balls for the fans, but the fact that this is even being reported would suggest that there’s legs to it. I don’t know how to feel about it. Obviously, a rotation of Doc-Lee-Oswalt-Hamels is just retarded, but it’s also expensive, aging and we don’t know what it would mean for the rest of the roster – not just in 2011, but in the future. There are simply way too many variables and not enough concrete information to even begin speculating on this.

Begging your pardon, but: What the fuck is going on?

Twitter, in and of itself, encompasses many of these questions. As its influence has grown, more and more members of the mainstream media have embraced the site and used it as another way to beat others to the punch with rumors, breaking news, and rapid reactions. It is a different beast, and rules for dealing with social media are less universal and well-established than those for traditional media. Last night’s Twitter controversy was merely the latest in a series of similar clashes between traditional media and technology.

The rough timeline: Ryan Petzar, late of TheFightins and Long Drive, created a fake account for Sports Illustrated’s Jon Heyman. Thanks to Twitter’s font, substituting a lower case l for the I in Heyman’s handle (@SI_JonHeyman) made it appear identical to the genuine article. Petzar posted that Zach Greinke had been traded to the Phillies for Ross Gload, Antonio Bastardo and two unnamed minor leaguers. It fooled an incredible amount of people, from other bloggers to major media types like Yankees broadcaster Michael Kay, who reported it on-air during a radio show. The fallout featured Heyman referring to Petzar as “some sick fake person” on his actual Twitter account, and sites like Crossing Broad climbing atop their soapboxes to decry Petzar’s actions.

Artist's rendering.

Again, such an incident is hardly unprecedented. Washington Post writer Mike Wise deliberately lied on his Twitter account in August, claiming Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger had been issued a five-game suspension. Despite Wise’s claim that he was attempting to prove a point about the nature of Twitter and the ethics of news reporting, he ended up with a suspension of his own for his troubles. For his part, Petzar has adamantly denied that his motive was to make a statement, claiming instead that he did it “for a laugh” and because he was “bored”.

Intent aside, Wise’s point was made again last night by an individual with no real repercussions to fear: The media today is so frantic to set themselves apart from the herd that they frequently disregard the basic tenets of their profession. Had anyone paused to independently verify the false report before they put it forth as established news, this never would have happened. The sanctimonious responses of various people do not change that, and were eminently predictable. Any time such a large number of people are made to look foolish, there’s a rush to mount the high horse and belittle the perpetrator.

The argument has been made that because the impersonation was more or less indistinguishable from the real thing, that it somehow absolves the reckless reporting. It does not, and the facsimile was actually quite easy to spot with a single click. Had anyone – literally anyone – actually checked the origin of the report, rather than blindly re-posting it, they would have seen that the tweet in question was the only one on the account. Heyman, in his role as a Sports Illustrated columnist, has posted thousands of news items on his Twitter, and has a “verified account”. On top of that, the rumor couldn’t have been more absurd: A reserve, a LOOGY, and two minor league players for a pitcher a season removed from a Cy Young award? Not even Dayton Moore is that stupid. Yes, stranger and dumber things have certainly happened, but this should have been an obvious prank. That it became anything more is an indictment of  the journalistic responsibility of the reporters involved, and arguably symptomatic of a larger problem in American media.

As to the claims that the reputations of Twitter and blogs are now “slightly sullied,” I can only muster derisive laughter. Not only is Petzar not even currently affiliated with a blog, this isn’t the first time that someone has successfully pulled off a hoax that fooled the media and/or the public, and it won’t be the last. From a Polish newspaper including an image of the infamous Pedobear as a mascot for the 2010 Winter Olympics to Orson Welles’ famous War of the Worlds broadcast, media history is fraught with instances of overreaction and gullibility. Besides, it’s not as if the professional media has a spotless record. People like Jayson Blair and Stephen Glass plagiarized, distorted and fabricated multiple times for respected news institutions – and those are just two examples of guys who got caught. To posit that one person, unaffiliated with any media outlet, making a joke on the Internet has diminished the credibility of either blogs or Twitter is presumptuous and fallacious at best, and says a lot more about the person making the accusation than it does about anything else – namely, that they can’t take a joke.

One would hope that things like this would result in reporters and citizens alike being a little more diligent and cautious, but it’s only a matter of time until this happens again. And when it does, the sanctimony won’t be far behind.

Happy trails, man. Happy trails.

Seven years, $126 million. Wow.

The Phillies will receive the Nationals’ second-round draft choice and a sandwich pick. They will not receive the first-rounder, since it is protected.

It’s something we all knew was coming, no matter how much some of us might have tried to deny it.

I can’t possibly be mad at Werth for leaving. He gave us four awesome seasons. Then he got an insanely lucrative offer, and this was his one and only shot at a huge payday.

I think the Phillies are going to sorely miss his production next year, but even if not, I’m going to miss having my favorite player on my favorite team.

At least now I can, and will, buy a Werth jersey without breaking the bank. So I got that goin’ for me. Which is nice.

So, Jayson, thanks for the memories. Hitting three homers against the Blue Jays. Stealing all three bases on Russell Martin. All the big postseason hits that helped us win a World Series and two NL pennants. That glorious beard. I hope you’ll get a warm reception each of the many times you’ll return to Philadelphia as an opponent over the rest of the decade…but I sincerely doubt it.

Enjoy your money. And fourth place.

Sincerely,

Still Your Biggest Fan

Fear not: This blog yet lives, and plans are in motion to make it bigger and better than ever. Thankfully, since we’re all fuck-ups, that won’t take much effort at all. I’ve taken the liberty of spearheading this little revival, and I have a lot of ideas that will probably fail in spectacular fashion, if they happen. As to that, to quote Bart Simpson, we can’t promise we’ll try…but we’ll try to try.

All levity aside, we’re actually pretty excited about some stuff we have planned. You’ll see some new faces contributing to Long Drive beginning this month, and the hope is there will be more added as time goes on.

Fuck the Giants.

Kisses,

TR

Seriously, who over the age of eight uses "Cody" as a name?

Better team/good guys win, despite another home run from this overachieving cuntwheeze.

I hope Doc strikes him out in Game 5 to end the series. Fuckface.

Oswalt was a G, Jimmy finally remembered this is the postseason, and Polly did work. Jonathan Sanchez did his best LOLiver Perez impression before settling in, but the almighty Giants bullpen shat themselves for the second time in 10 days.

We got this.

Larry Bowa spent the last three seasons coaching third base for the Los Angeles Dodgers, which means he saw the San Francisco Giants up close in 54 games.

Hubert P. Gackenwigler spent the last 37 years watching every Giants game on TV with his eyes pressed right up against the screen, which means he saw them close up in approximately 14 million games.

Ever the baseball junkie, Bowa also pays close attention to the Phillies, the team for which he starred at shortstop from 1970 to 1981 and managed from 2001 to 2004.

Ever the baseball junkie, Gackenwigler also pays close attention to the Phillies, and every other team in the major leagues, because he has absolutely no life and no chance of getting laid with a name like Hubert P. Gackenwigler.

So Bowa is certainly qualified to offer a scouting report on the National League Championship Series, which begins Saturday night with the Phils hosting the Giants in Game 1 at Citizens Bank Park.

So he is certainly qualified to…you get the idea.

Bowa will be in front of his television for every game. He believes this will be a must-see series, mostly because of the two starting pitching staffs.

This is in stark opposition to every other baseball fan, all of whom have boycotted the series because they believe it will be “weak city”.

“I don’t know that I’ve ever seen two staffs this deep in the same series,” Bowa said Wednesday. “Their 1-2-3s are both outstanding. That’s six guys who can shut you down. And their No. 4 guys aren’t chopped liver.

“Now, you look at the Pirates,” Bowa continued, chomping on a cigar. “Chopped Liver was their No. 2 starter, after Paul Maholm and before the fat guy from What’s Happening? Terrible rotation. That’s why they lost so many games. You can learn a lot, talking to me.”

“With Halladay, the scouting report is always don’t let him get into a rhythm,” Bowa said. “It’s the same thing with Lincecum. If you don’t get to those guys early, they can settle in and it can be really tough. With Lincecum, you can often tell how good he’s going to be early. Sometimes his control can be off early.

“The early bird gets the worm. Early to bed, early to rise. Early Wynn. Early bird specials. The fucking crack of dawn. Go to their houses in the middle of the night and punch them in the face while they’re sleeping. Get to them early.”

Control has been a problem for Sanchez – he led the NL with 96 walks this season – but lately he has done a better job of harnessing his pitches. Witness his win over Bowa’s Dodgers on September 16: 12 strikeouts, no walks in seven innings. Witness his gem against Atlanta in the Division Series: 11 strikeouts, one walk in 7 1/3 innings.

Witness his final start of the regular season against the Padres, with a division title and playoff spot on the line: five strikeouts, five walks in five innings. Witness his previous start against the Diamondbacks: six strikeouts, four walks in six innings. Witness his no-decision against San Diego on September 10: four strikeouts, seven walks in five innings.

Can I get a [motherfucking] witness?!?!!

“If he’s throwing strikes, he could be a big X-factor,” Bowa said of Sanchez. “You really have to concentrate and make him throw strikes.”

If he is doing his job well, he could positively affect events in which he does his job. You, the opposition, really have to concentrate and make him do his job well, because this will lead to you winning games.

“They have a good fielding percentage, but it’s very deceiving,” he said of the Giants’ league-best .988 mark. “They have no range. They’ll catch it when you hit it to them, but they’re not a great defensive team.”

Giants’ UZR: Second in the majors. Giants’ UZR/150: First. Giants’ RngR (range runs above average): Second.

BRR (Bowa Range Rating): El Zilcho.

“You can’t sit around and wait for three-run home runs against these staffs,” Bowa said...“You can’t wait for five-hit innings because they’re [sic] pitching is too good.”

If, however, you are playing baseball against a team with mediocre pitching, this is what you should do, according to Bowa’s book, Larry Bowa’s Guide to Winning 49 Percent of the Games You Manage:

1. Wait for five-hit innings. Do not attempt to make them happen. Just sort of stand around on the field, waiting patiently.

2. Wait for three-run homers. Again, do nothing. If you and/or your teammates become restless, play hopscotch in the batter’s box.

3. ?

4. Profit.

“The Phillies have a better lineup and more speed,” Bowa said. “But Huff and Uribe come up big with men on base.”

Not that this really matters all that much, but:

(OPS: Overall/Runners On/RISP)

Huff:.891/.889/.885 (also, .892 with the bases empty)

Uribe: .749/.799/.776

That’s just purest extract of clutch. Legendary clutchness. Clutchy old sonsabitches. If you cut these dudes open, you’d see this where their hearts should be.

Christ, can Saturday night just get here already?

The Phillies made short work of the Cincinnati Reds in an opening round sweep, though they were not exactly what one would call dominant, with the obvious exceptions of Roy Halladay and Cole Hamels. The offense scored just 13 runs, and got a big hand from the Reds’ atrocious defense (seven errors in three games, including four in Game 2). If Jay Bruce hadn’t misplayed that fly ball in the 7th inning of Game 2, it might have been a very different series. But that happened. If nothing else, that should have been yet more proof positive that the playoffs are a crapshoot. Cincinnati’s defense was a strength all season long, and Bruce was their best fielder according to UZR. It only takes one mistake in such a short series to radically alter the course of events, and the Reds made a few more for good measure. Joey Votto and Scott Rolen combined for two hits and 10 strikeouts in 21 at-bats. Weird things happen, and that’s why winning in the playoffs is almost as much about avoiding bad bounces as it is skill.

Before we get into the nitty-gritty of the NLCS, a tip of the cap to the Reds and their fans. The parallels between them and the Phillies of a few seasons ago continue to amaze me. In 2007, we returned to the playoffs after a 14-year absence, only to be sent home winless by the Rockies. Cincinnati waited 15 years for the same fate, and even worse, got no-hit in their first game. You got some bad breaks, your guys didn’t execute when they needed to, you ran into a more talented team on a hot streak. It happens. Don’t get discouraged. You’ll be back.

I’m taking a slightly different approach to analysis here. Rather than a blow-by-blow account of each facet of the game, what follows are essentially the matchups, factors, and numbers I feel will prove most crucial in the series.

Tiny’s Blister

Not to be confused with Tiny Lister, AKA Deebo.

Tim Lincecum has a blister on his pitching hand that resurfaced during his dominating 14-strikeout performance against the Braves last week. He’s reportedly received “extensive treatment” and it’s both “not a big deal” and “under control,” but this is certainly something to keep an eye on, for obvious reasons. As it stands, we’re in line for one of the best pitching matchups in recent memory with Doc and Big Time Timmy Jim toeing the rubber in Game 1, and there’s no unit of measurement small enough to separate the two aces right now – unless Lincecum is at less than 100 percent.

Dirty Sanchez

The Giants announced that Jonathan Sanchez and Matt Cain will swap places in the rotation for the NLCS. This is a rare smart move by Bruce Bochy. Sanchez induces more groundballs, strikes out more batters, and has a much better track record against the Phillies than Cain. Chase Utley (1.192 OPS in 18 PA) and Shane Victorino (.904, 16) have hit him well, but the likely starting lineup has an aggregate .517 OPS against him in 133 PA – and that includes those two guys. Small sample size caveats aside, getting Sanchez into the action earlier seems like a good play, especially if the Giants manage to take Game 1. That would put tremendous pressure on the Phillies to avoid an 0-2 hole heading to San Francisco.

The key is how the Phillies’ hitters approach Sanchez. He’s always been wild, with a career 4.6 BB/9, but his stuff is usually good enough to counter that. While he’s been the beneficiary of some BABIP luck this season, with a mark 40 points below his career average, we cannot count on a regression to the mean in only one or two games. The Braves managed to work only one walk against him in the Division Series, and part of that was a lack of discipline at the plate. The Phillies generally put up crooked numbers against high-walk guys like Sanchez, but he’s always a threat to pitch a gem.

To Rest, or Not to Rest

Charlie Manuel hasn’t announced the rotation yet. Doc starting Game 1 is a foregone conclusion, but there are a few different paths he could take beyond that. The two main questions: Which of Oswalt and Hamels starts Game 2, and does Joe Blanton get the call in Game 4?

Let's hope his cell isn't on silent.

I’d guess that Hamels will go in Game 2. He’s historically struggled at AT&T Park (6.12 ERA, 1.76 WHIP in four starts) and in day games (4.27, 1.35), and while it’s questionable how much those numbers really matter, you can bet Charlie’s well aware of them. In addition, Hamels has probably earned the right to move up in the rotation after his virtuoso performance in Game 3 following Oswalt’s rough turn in the second game. As much as was made of Oswalt’s sterling track record at Citizens Bank Park, it’s worth noting that he’s allowed seven homers in 46 innings there, as opposed to only 14 in 170 innings elsewhere. In a series in which runs are sure to be at a premium, that could prove significant.

As for Blanton, that picture pretty much says it all. He hasn’t pitched in a game since October 3, or started a game since September 29. If he does get the ball for Game 4, that’s three weeks between starts, which is something to be mildly concerned about. But assuming rust isn’t a problem, Blanton can certainly be trusted, despite his lackluster overall numbers. He was a different pitcher in the second half – the team lost just one of his last 11 starts, and he only allowed one run in that game. The long ball remains a problem for him, but the Giants’ park should help neutralize that to an extent.

I don’t think there’s any question that we’ll see Blanton start Game 4. If the last two postseasons have taught us anything, it’s that Charlie and Rich Dubee aren’t big fans of pitching guys on short rest. Lord knows if anybody would be an exception to that rule, it’d be Doc, but Hamels and Little Roy would have to start on short rest as well, and that’s about as likely as Blanton turning down a free doughnut buffet. Charlie and Doobs seem pretty content with throwing each of their three horses twice and trusting Blanton to keep the team in a game.

As for the Giants, my guess is they’re in pretty much the same boat. Sure, having Lincecum start three of seven games sounds appealing, but he’s never pitched on short rest, and he’s also already dealing with an injury, albeit a minor one. With Cain, Sanchez and Madison Bumgarner also in the fold, why risk it? If they drop the first three games, they may panic and toss Timmy out there, but at that point, we’d be in the driver’s seat anyway.

The Mark on Cain

Not that one.

Of the three big guns in the Giants’ rotation, Cain is the weakest link, at least against the Phillies. He’s never beaten us in five starts, posting an ugly 6.23 ERA; however,  in his only game against us this year, three of the five runs he allowed were unearned. The big number is seven – how many homers he’s allowed in 26 career innings against the Fightins. That’s three times his career HR/9 rate of 0.81. As I said earlier, switching him and Sanchez is an intelligent decision, since AT&T Park suppresses home runs, especially against lefties (HR park factor of 82, according to StatCorner). It comes with a downside, however, that being Cain would be the guy for a possible Game 7 in Philly.

Hey, Guess What? The Giants’ Offense Doesn’t Suck (Probably)

It used to, sure. Then they upgraded from Bengie Molina to Buster Posey behind the plate, and from Aaron Rowand/some other loser to newly resurgent Pat Burrell in left, and Aubrey Huff decided to have a career season, and Andres Torres became a 6 WAR player overnight, and suddenly the Giants had a fully functional major-league lineup. Still, there are holes. Freddy Sanchez is pretty lousy. So are Edgar Renteria, Juan Uribe, Mike Fontenot, and “Fat Fucking Asshole Who Murders Fantasy Teams Kung Fu Panda” Pablo Sandoval, which basically covers any combination Bruce Bochy starts at third and short.

Hello. My name is Inigo Montoya. You killed my fantasy team. Prepare to die.

Since returning from appendicitis, Torres has an OPS around .500, Huff has fallen off a bit as the year’s progressed, and we all know how streaky Pat can be. The Giants were largely shut down by the Braves pitching staff, and it was only the Herculean efforts of Brooks Conrad’s glove to give games away that led them to victory.

Check out the look on Heyward's face.

Atlanta’s pitching was certainly nothing to sneeze at, but it wasn’t on our level, and San Francisco mustered a whopping 11 runs in four games. Adjusting for CCE (Coefficient of Conrad Errahs), the Giants scored approximately negative six runs per game in the Division Series. Their lineup isn’t as pathetic as most people believe it is, but it’s also nothing to fear, especially for a team with Halladay, Hamels, and Oswalt on the roster.

The Bottom Line (Presented by Stone Cold Steve Austin)

Fuck the Giants.

Phillies in six (maybe five, with a few bounces).