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We’ve all encountered people whose reaction to baseball is “it’s boring.” To me, these people are lost causes. I’ll try to educate them if they’re willing to learn, but usually they aren’t. Of course, I’m not writing about these anti-fans today, I’m writing about a game that was legitimately and predictably boring as all hell.

The Yankees and Red Sox have a long and storied rivalry. They are two of the three best teams in baseball (Rays) so their day 1 matchup was seemingly a match made in heaven for the MLB. Wrong!

Almost every Yankees-Red Sox matchup has a couple key features:

• The two teams combine to use seemingly 20 relief pitchers (exaggeration)
• The game lasts at least 4 hours (not at exaggeration)

This matchup did not disappoint those hoping to see a typical ‘thriller.’ After spinning a beautiful 7 pitch opening frame, Josh Beckett settled into mediocrity and appeared to be done by the end of the 3rd. He dithered and dallied a little longer, averaging over 20 pitches per inning after the first. CC wasn’t a whole lot better. After slicing through the Red Sox order like butter for 5 IP, CC squandered a 5-1 lead in the 6th. It was one of the most boring innings I’ve ever witnessed.

Allow me to digress a moment. I watched last night’s game with a motley crew of Minnesota transplants last night. Among our number were a Yankees fan, a Mets fan, a Braves fan, a Twins fan, a Phillies fan (me), and a guy from Oklahoma. They don’t get real sports teams in Oklahoma, unless you count basketball as a real sport ( I don’t). Prior to the game, I voiced my theory that Yankees-Red Sox games are always the longest, most boring games of the season. The Yankees fan of course immediately objected (although he later agreed).

Ok now fast-forward back to the 6th inning. If I wasn’t stuffing my face with some friends from my college days, I would have up and left during that 6th inning. It was horrid. From the box score, it looks like it was exciting. For those of you who watched along with me, I’m guessing your eyes glazed over for 40 minutes while the game failed to progress. Or you finished 7 beers and got yourself nice and buzzy.

So I’m left to wonder. The MLB knows that this first Sunday night game is the welcome back to the season event. It also knows that Yankees-Red Sox games are long as all hell. Casual fans equate long with boring. So…MLB, was the boost in viewership worth reminding a large cadre of casual fans that baseball is sometimes boring? I would have preferred to see Cincinnati-St. Louis.

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Who else noticed ESPN’s ridiculous color coding of balls, strikes, and outs? Why the stop light theme (balls are green, strikes yellow, and outs red)? We made a game of it by quickly adopting new lingo. Some phrases and terms we used.

• (on any count, ex. 2-2): We have 2 greens and 2 yellows
• (on a full count with 2 outs): The count is color-full.
• CC is hoping to collect 3 yellows so that he can trade for a red

There were better ones, but I don’t remember them. If anyone knows where I can get a picture of it, let me know.

The few roster battles concluded rather predictably. Despite a poor spring, Juan Castro made the team as the utility infielder. Ross Gload was able to grab a spot on the bench despite much tastier treats floating around the waiver world.

The sole area of interest is pitching. Roster combatant Scott Mathieson was sent to minor league camp early once club officials determined he needed more time to work on his secondary stuff. With Romero and Lidge heading to the DL, that gave Kyle Kendrick, Antonio Bastardo, and Rule V pick David Herndon the chance to head north in the bullpen. Joe Blanton’s oblique injury opened the door for Kendrick in the rotation and Drew Carpenter in the pen. The final product looks like this:

C: Carlos Ruiz, Brian Schneider

1b: Ryan Howard, Ross Gload

2b: Chase Utley

SS: Jimmy Rollins, Juan Castro

3b: Placido Polanco, Greg Dobbs

LF: Raul Ibanez, Ben Francisco

CF: Shane Victorino

RF: Jayson Werth

SP: Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels, JA Happ, Kyle Kendrick, Jaime Moyer

RP: Ryan Madson, Danys Baez, Antonio Bastardo, Jose Contreras, Chad Durbin, David Herndon, Drew Carpenter

Disappointingly, this roster is not as strong as it could be, but hopefully it gets the job done. We’re just a few short hours away from Roy Halladay Day!

Every spring there are stories. You know the kind I’m talking about. So and so veteran is in the best shape of his life, so and so prospect has really figured things out, etc. It’s tough to read a single baseball story without stumbling across this theme.

In the world of fantasy sports, when you combine such a storyline with a strong 60PA showing in Spring Training, players start to get hyped. In this article I’ll examine some players who the common fan has developed some very unreasonable expectations for.

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Projected to hit .400/.600/.800 by PECOTA

*Warning: If you’re not a follower of fangraphs, BPro, THT, etc, then this post is not for you.

Nothing annoys me more than people who can’t stop felating their proprietary projection system. This annoys me especially when that proprietary system has a terrible recent track record. To be fully clear, I’m not complaining about authors who use a projection as part of their piece. If I’m writing an article about Carlos Ruiz, it might be useful to say that despite public sentiment, a wide range of projection systems expect Ruiz to be slightly worse in ’10 than he was in ;09.  And then I’d go on to cite why I agree/disagree, harp on the importance of catcher defense, and speculate about Chooch’s favorite flavor of ice cream.  That’s fine. No, what I’m complaining about is when that projection IS the piece.

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Does Central PA really deserve that?

Hi everyone, today is your chance to help fancy-pants saberist Tom Tango.  Tom likes to poll fan opinion on things because it turns out that when you poll a whole bunch of novices about something, their average prediction is often more accurate than an expert.   Today Tango wants the fans to predict playing time for their favorite teams.  Below is the link to the Phillies prediction page, it’s pretty intuitive from there.  So take 2 minutes and make your best guesses.

http://www.tangotiger.net/survey/index2.php?teamid=143&team=Philadelphia%20Phillies

…this is a featured headline on their ‘Official’ homepage:

Francouer Walks Twice, Injures Hamstring, Pride. Mets Staff Says Out 2-26 Weeks

LINK

The comments actually have people talking about how great a ballplayer he is.  Sure, if you compare Jeff Francoeur to me , he’s a damn good ballplayer.  When you compare him to say…I don’t know, actual major league players…he’s definitely well below average.  Mets+Jeff Francouer+website= Mega Fail

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this is the kind of beard we don't need

I’ve yet to personally see the guy pitch, but fans seem to think Rule V pick David Herndon has decent stuff and could hold a spot on the roster.  It’s not likely he stays, but this article will attempt to lay down the path to keeping him.  First, a brief explanation of the Rule V mechanism.

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Because Chris insists my posts begin with a picture

Using baseball analytics in a blog setting is hazardous work.  Hell doing any statistical analysis in any setting is rife with danger.  No, not the palpable danger of an axe murderer on the loose.  Or the kind that arises when you’re stuck on a jungle island with a bunch of hungry dinosaurs during a hurricane and the power’s out because Newman from Seinfeld was being a dick.  No, the danger is much more mundane, it’s data presentation and the conclusions that are drawn from the data.  I’m currently putting the finishing touches on a post about Roy Halladay and Johan Santana.  There’s no doubt in my mind that Doc is better than Johan.  The numbers support me, scouting data supports me, many non-Mets/Twins/Phillies/Blue Jays fans agree with me (you know, the fans without any stake in the argument), yet the malaise of uncertainty lurks.

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This is meant to be a quick companion to Chris’ WAR series to give you the general gist of what that stat is and how it’s used. An in-depth explanation will probably come some time in the semi-distant future, for now this is just meant to help you understand what that WAR number means.

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Moyer, mulling over changes to his AARP member benefits

Last update I cited comments from Rich Dubee saying Kyle Kendrick would have to take the 5th starters job from Moyer.  Moyer is not helping his case after getting lit up in a ‘B’ game. It’s impossible to find meaning in spring training statistics because there are too many bad players in camp or vets working on things. Moyer especially is known to work on things like throwing only cutters or changeups. That said, Moyer has yet to appear in Grapefruit League action while KK has compiled 9 scoreless frames on 4 hits, 0 bb’s, and 2 k’s.  Neither candidate is a very attractive choice for the rotation, but it’s very possible that Kendrick would be the more consistent option.  As long as he limits walks, he could have decent success in the Joel Pineiro/Most-Twins-Pitchers vein.  I still expect Moyer to start the season in the rotation regardless of how both he and KK do this March.  Just don’t be surprised if Moyer has a short leash.

Drew Carpenter’s micro-sample looks tantalizing with 8 IP, 5H, 1BB, 1R, and 9K.  Scouts complain about his across the body motion, suspect control, and mediocre secondary offerings, but I’m reminded a little of another dimmed prospect who our evaluators pretty much gave up on.  I’ve advocated him as a potential #5 pitcher all off season after he succeeded against AAA hitters last season. A team deeper in SP would convert him to the pen now, but I think he’s probably more useful to us if we keep him stretched out.

The Phillies cut a number of players from camp recently.  Most notable are potential 5th OF Quintin Berry, the Cliff Lee trio, and Scott Mathieson.  Berry was never a candidate for a bench spot this spring and the trio all still have plenty of work to do on the farm.  Mathieson is a little more surprising, but it makes perfect sense.  He’s lost a lot of developmental time to injury and has never had great secondary stuff.  He will head back to minor league camp and AAA to work on his control and repertoire.  The Phillies will look to add him to the ML roster when his stuff dictates it.

Finally, on the relief front, Brad Lidge is confident he will make opening day, but J.C. Romero is set to join the club 7-10 days after the start of the season.  That makes the current opening day bullpen Lidge, Ryan Madson, Antonio Bastardo, Danys Baez, Jose Contreras, and Chad Durbin.  The Phillies still have Mike Zagurski, Sergio Escalona, and Rule V pick David Herndon in camp.  I wouldn’t be surprised if Kendrick or Carpenter went north with the team as the temporary mop-up man while Romero recovers.  My guess is they will choose between Escalona and Zagurski so as to carry two lefties. They could also opt to break camp with another bench player, probably John Mayberry Jr. who’s having a fine camp or 34 year old Cody Ransom, who, despite a despicable glove, would actually probably be an improvement to Juan Castro.