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In what should have been an utter thrashing of a series, the Phillies managed just 13 runs against three of the worst starting pitchers in baseball (OK maybe Kennedy isn’t that bad) and one of the worst bullpen units. I was worried the D-Backs would get to Hamels and they did, but I never suspected that Benson would put up a reasonably decent start. I’m dumbfounded as to how that happened, but then again, Livan Hernandez hasn’t allowed an earned run yet so there’s plenty of room for blind squirrels and nut finding in the first month of the season. The second game didn’t go according to plan either. Figueroa battled through 5 innings to give the Phillies exactly what they needed from him. Ian Kennedy had a strong start for AZ, but the Phillies managed to outlast them. The final game more closely resembled what I expected from the series, with the Phillies and Diamondbacks trading blows until a victor emerged.

I have just a few observations to make. The Phillies are awfully thin at SS right now with Castro banged up. Valdez really isn’t a serviceable defender. Somehow the duo of Valdez/Castro has provided nearly league average offense since Rollins hit the DL. Both are poor hitters so every little bit of production we get from them is a blessing.

Howard does not seem comfortable at the plate right now. The observations I made about Howard earlier in the year have held true, his K% is nearly half his career rate at 17.5%(32.2% average). However, his ISO is down to .200 from a .304 average (and .292 the last two seasons) and his walk percent has crumpled to 3.6% after averaging 12.7% on his career. The current product has been a slightly below average hitter. The real problem is easy to see in his plate discipline data. He’s swinging at more pitches outside of the zone (35% compared to 26% career) than he ever has and he’s hitting way more of them (56% compared to 40% career) than ever before. He’s also hitting a whopping 91% of pitches in the strike zone compared to a career rate of 79%. If Howard can cut down on the bad pitches he’s swinging at, he should see his ISO jump. His walk rate will climb too, but so long as he’s connecting on practically everything that crosses the plate, he’ll have trouble getting it back above 10%. Howard seems to have made a real change to how he hits, there’s libel to be growing pains involved, but I’m hopeful he can improve his strike zone discipline back to career norms and turn this change into a net positive.

Chase Utley just doesn’t seem to be getting pitches. It’s possible scouts have noted Howard’s new approach and don’t fear him as much as they used to. That seems foolish to me, but as it stands Utley is walking 19% of the time. As long as Howard and Werth keep playing well, this is a good thing.

Our hobbled rotation seems to be doing alright. It looks like Figgy has positioned himself to take over Kendrick’s role on the team once Blanton returns. Speaking of Blanton, he threw 3 IP on Friday allowing 4 hits and a walk. I had to look the line up on Milb.com. I assume no news is good news here. He should be making his third and final rehab start on tuesday or wednesday and will be probably throwing about 75-80 pitches. I expect him back on the roster sometime towards the end of the weekend or the beginning of next week. It’ll be interesting to see who’s cut.

Today brings the first series preview piece of the 2010 season here at PLD. We plan on making this a regular feature so please give any relevant feedback. And before anyone points out the typo in the title (it’s pronounced like ‘Brahms’), it was an intentional allusion to our friends and frequent visitors at the ProSportsDaily Phillies forum.

After recovering from a heartbreaking loss to the Braves on Tuesday night, the Phillies regrouped around Field General Roy Halladay and took the series while stifling the Braves offense. Now they take their two game win streak to Arizona where the hitting friendly confines of Chase Field await along with an even friendlier array of re-tread pitching.

Friday Night: 9:40 PM

Cole Hamels vs. Kris Benson

Cole Hamels represents the lone “good” starting pitcher of the series. However, we know he can be a little prone to the long ball and Chase Field can only make matters worse. The Phillies and their fans will be hoping that Cole brings the stuff he used to shutdown the Braves. It’s tough to predict how the Diamondbacks will fare against Hamels. They have plenty of power in the lineup, but they also feature several players led by long ball threat Mark Reynolds who are among the league leaders at the swing and miss. If Hamels can stay aggressive, he might have a lot of success against this lineup, but don’t be surprised if things suddenly get ugly.

The Phillies for their part should massacre Kris Benson. Despite a seemingly solid start against the Padres, Benson struck out only 1 while allowing 6 hits (including a home run) and walking 4. Scouts lambasted his outing, calling his stuff mediocre at best. Internet pundits are wondering aloud when Billy Buckner will take Benson’s turn in the rotation. The Phillies stable of patient and powerful hitters should be able to outlast Benson’s mediocre stuff and pile on oodles of runs. If Benson can get through 5 IP without surrendering 6 or more runs, I’ll be absolutely amazed.

Saturday Night: 9:10 PM

Nelson Figueroa vs Ian Kennedy

Last week, I suggested the Phillies try Figueroa in Kendrick’s spot in the rotation. An injury to JA Happ took that idea off the table (and a no run, 8 IP effort from KK bought him another game’s worth of breathing room). Now the guy Chris Coste called the second best starter at Mets Spring Training gets his turn in the Phillies rotation. It’s tough to figure what Figgy will bring to the table, but he seems to be pitching well with his mediocre stuff. This one has the potential to get real ugly folks but Nelson has a decent enough chance to skate through 5-6 adequate innings.

After my predicted trouncing of Benson in game 1, the Phillies face a pitcher who’s better than his numbers indicate. Ian Kennedy has decent enough stuff to pitch in the middle of an NL rotation and occasionally silence good lineups. He’s going to have a lot of problems with Utley, Howard, Werth, Ibanez, but the rest of the lineup is banged up enough that he might be able to pitch around those guys and squeeze through a quality start. A couple mistakes to the wrong players and his night could get real short, real fast. After my predicted slaughter of Benson, the DBacks are going to be leaning heavily on Kennedy to get them at least through the 7th. This should work in the Phillies advantage and could manifest in another slug-fest.

Sunday Night: 5:10 PM      (Yes I call 5:10 ‘night time’)

Kyle Kendrick vs Rodrigo Lopez

I mentioned the Saturday night game could get ugly right? This one’s bound to be a mess. Kendrick and his inability to miss bats matches up terribly with a team that’s all power when they happen to run into the ball. I’m not sure what else there is to say about it. The Diamondbacks offense looks much better than the anemic Braves unit, so we could see a repeat of Kendrick’s two outings against the Nationals. Thankfully…

We could see a repeat of Kendrick’s two outings against the Nationals. Rodrigo Lopez is yet another baaaad pitcher. This year he’s throwing way fewer fastballs than last, but all four of his offerings are worse than mediocre. Again, I expect to see the Phillies patiently out wait the inferior pitcher and tee off on mistakes. However, if anyone is going to pull a Tim Reading (or more recently Nate Robertson) and shut down the Phillies offense with bad stuff, it’s going to be Lopez.

This should be an entertaining, if not potentially frustrating, series to watch.

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On the injury front, Jimmy is taking BP left handed and continuing to recover quickly. It appears like he’ll be set to return about a week after he’s eligible to come off the DL, which is a week before the super optimistic timetable suggested. At this point, I’m wondering if the strain really was a grade 2 because he should not be this far along yet.

JA Happ’s injury (a strained forearm), is considered very minor. He’s expected to be activated from the DL as soon as he’s eligible. This has a chance to linger all season so let’s hope it heals up nice and clean now. If it lingers, it’s something he’ll probably work through with occasional skipped starts.

Joe Blanton makes his second rehab appearance today. I’m sure Phillies.com will have something available on the outcome. The important thing is that he doesn’t feel his oblique.

UPDATE:

It sounds as though the injury to JA Happ might be more serious than originally supposed. This from injury expert Will Carroll:

The Phillies don’t think that Happ will be out that long, but Ruben Amaro Jr.’s quote of “weeks, not months” leaves a lot of wiggle room. The quotes that David Murphy got in this notebook show that this is more than just a simple strain or at least the Phillies are treating it that way. Happ’s elbow is at risk here, so he will go through a full strengthening program over the next couple weeks, which makes it unlikely we’ll see him on a rehab assignment until the middle of next month. Missing weeks instead of months is certainly preferable, and catching the problem here, prior to having the stress transferred to the ligaments, is also a good sign. There’s a reason the Phillies took home the Dick Martin trophy last year. Nelson Figueroawill make a spot start in place of Happ, but with Joe Blanton close to a return, it shouldn’t affect the pen too much.

Every once and awhile we’re reminded of the dark episode from recent past that still haunts the MLB. Today we’re likely to witness 2010′s first player suspension for PEDs. Will Carroll of Baseball Prospectus broke the story late last night/early today. So far, sources have leaked that a player unsuccessfully appealed testing and a decision to suspend him has been reached. The player is a pitcher and the drug of choice was NOT amphetamines. That’s all we know right now. The announcement is expected today, but could be delayed.

Keep your eyes and ears open. When this happens it will be all over ESPN. Unless it’s a Phillie, NL East rival, or major player of note, you won’t be getting any further reactions from me. But do stop back for some fun and games in the coming days.

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UPDATE:

The man of the hour is Edinson Volquez. Word on the street is the substance is similar to the one used by Manny. I’ll leave my personal opinions of PED users for another day and focus on a rumor I’ve seen in a couple different outlets: Volquez’ suspension is set to begin immediately.

Yep, despite being on the 60 day DL until sometime between late July and early September, it’s rumored that Volquez’ suspension will run concurrent with his rehab stint and will be over long before he is set to return to action. If true, I’m not sure anyone can claim this makes sense. I’ll be out looking for more concrete information in this regard and I’ll let you know when I find it.

In the meantime, assuming it is true, rest assured that public backlash will see to it that Volquez is the only one to benefit from this asinine policy. A PED suspension is supposed to do several things. It’s supposed to take 50 days of availability away from the team. The team is compensated for this by not having to pay the player over this period (Volquez makes a “measly” $445,000). The player also loses 50 days of service time and gets considerable negative publicity. In this case, the club is not being punished at all and Volquez will hardly be affected in the short term. I’ll comment on long term effects when I update the veracity of this rumored suspension rule.

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Update #2:

It appears that Volquez will be eligible to return from suspension on June 15. He claims that the drug he used was prescribed by a Dominican doctor to “help him make a family”. Volquez will lose 50 games of his salary which works out to a little bit under $140,000. Long term, he loses 50 days of service time which will affect future contract negotiations. Whether or not testing positive affects his future bargaining position beyond that depends on how well he pitches when he returns. He will probably earn less money than he could via arbitration.

Word on the street is that JA Happ is getting skipped over for his next scheduled start. Will Carroll has this to say on the subject in his regular Under The Knife column:

Whether or not you believe in/there’s evidence for the Verducci Effect, there is definitely something to the “playoff hangover.” (Then again, without a study on this in place, I guess the nitpickers will be in comments telling me I’m wrong.) Happ is an interesting case, in that he was shifted to the pen for the playoffs and therefore, would be under slightly less stress than someone like Cole Hamels, who has done it two offseasons in a row. Or is it? We know there’s a multiplier somewhere, a sliding scale that would tell us how much stress a pitcher is under in various relief situations. Happ’s early-season struggles might be explained by this, but until there’s more evidence, it’s best to keep looking while noting this “hangover.” Happ will throw on the side Monday and a determination on the DL will be made after that. Sources tell me that the Phillies really don’t know, but with Joe Blanton still a bit off, this injury stack has the chance to throw the staff off. What might save them is the presence of Roy Halladay and the schedule. BP’s Tommy Bennett took a look at the schedule and thinks the Phils will only need a 5-slot guy once in the next two weeks. Blanton should be back by then, if not Happ.

This is bad news bears fellas (and ladies). With Blanton coming back around May 3rd, a DL stint from Happ is something the Phillies can to swallow, but it definitely puts the pressure on them to scrounge up more starting pitching. I think the case to get Figueroa some starts has now become too obvious and pressing to be ignored. We’ll see what Charlie and friends do in the coming days, I’ve heard no formal announcement on tomorrow’s starter although the Phils site lists Kendrick. I’m still hopeful they’ll see the light.

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In another injury related note, Will Carroll is hearing that Jimmy Rollins’ calf may be healing faster than expected. At least that’s what Jimmy is telling the trainers. We’ll see if that moves his estimated return date up from the mid-range 6 weeks to the optimistic 4 week estimate most news sources have been reporting.

What to do about Kyle Kendrick? The short answer? Demote him.

In two starts against the Nationals, Kendrick has incinerated faster than a protesting Buddhist monk. There’s no need to dig into the gory details, Kendrick has pitched poorly. With KK’s already exceedingly fungible talent level, two bad starts like this are enough to oust him from the starting five, possibly for good. Like forever-ever.

What do the Phillies do about his turn in the rotation? For now they can afford to stand pat. Kendrick’s usual turn to play on the hill just so happens to fall on an off day. So perfect world scenario, they skip that start and activate Joe Blanton for the next one. That’s relatively pain free from a roster stand point and with Blanton’s rehab progressing smoothly, he could very well be ready to spin 5 frames by the 24th. If he’s not ready, recent waiver grab Nelson Figueroa is capable of providing adequate starts.

But there’s a thorn in my always impeccable logic. The above idea is sound, there’s no doubt of that. Skip Kendrick and either activate Blanton or use Figueroa. But it begs the question, why is Kendrick still on the roster? It could only mean three things: they either intend to NOT skip his start, they intend to leave him in the bullpen, or they simply haven’t thought it over enough to be ready to make a roster move.

If either of the first two options are the answer, this is yet another example of the dangerous ‘trust’ that Charlie places in marginal athletes. From a statistical analysis standpoint, KK is an adequate SP despite his Nats-aided immolation early on. However, while statistical analysis is a great way to approach this problem in the off-season, there’s something to be said for going with the hot hand. Especially when you’re talking about which 6th starting pitcher to toss out there. Figueroa has certainly performed better thus far, Chris Coste even endorsed him as the 2nd best pitcher on the Mets Spring Training roster. Kendrick has flopped, he has no track record of success, and he has options so there’s no reason to stick with him.

However, the third option, that we don’t know who to activate,  is certainly plausible. There isn’t a single pitcher in Lehigh worth rostering over Kendrick. Detritus like Brandon Duckworth, Mike Zagurski, and John Ennis are eminently ignorable. Drew Carpenter has struggled in the early going and Scott Mathieson is not yet ready for promotion. Personally, I’d activate John Mayberry Jr or Quentin Berry for a few days, but perhaps the Phils want the extra pitcher lounging in the pen for extra-super-serious mop up duties.

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On a related topic, I’m seeing a lot of people discussing Pedro Martinez, Jarrod Washburn, and various guys rumored to be traded. With Blanton returning shortly, such talks are probably premature. However, if Moyer struggles again, it might be worth examining our options more closely.

That said, the two most popular targets of fan desire seem to be Pedro and Washburn. Neither player is in a rush to sign. Pedro is waiting to find a club that needs his services AND is a near lock to reach the post-season. He probably has a strong preference for a team that will almost certainly use him in the playoffs. The Phillies fit that bill, but Pedro gains nothing but signing hastily.

Washburn on the other hand is rumored to be holding out for a second guaranteed year. With Boras on his side, I doubt Washburn softens that particular demand until around the All Star break. As we saw in my payroll series, the Phillies don’t have the resources to guarantee Washburn a second year.

Ultimately I don’t expect either player to sign anytime soon.

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Random stat: prior to editing, ‘certainly’ appeared in this post 7 times. I need to work on that. Any other critiques of my work are more than welcome.

Ryan Howard has been taking a dump all over bad pitching 1 week into the season. What we’ve seen thus far has been a visual treat. The strike outs are down and the damage is waaaay up. The results have been devastating to opposing pitchers. He’s authored a 1.256 OPS on the back of a .469 ISO!!! and .360 BABIP. That’s all good for an unworldly .513 wOBA. For reference, Barry Bonds’ peak season featured a .546 wOBA. Howard even made the lefty shift look real foolish by smashing a line drive single where the SS is “supposed” to play.

Of course, anytime you analyze one week’s worth of data, the “small sample size” warning comes into play. That’s where scouting moves to the forefront. From watching the past 7 games, I’m comfortable saying that something is different, and dare I say it, improved? Might this have to do with the aforementioned Bonds? Our favorite Smash and Bash lefty met up with the surly Ruler of Roids over the offseason to work on his swing. Beyond moving closer to the plate to improve his plate coverage, his swing just looks better. It’s easy to see that he’s staying on the ball more this year than in the past.

So what’s been measurably different in this one week? You might be wondering about those large ISO and BABIP numbers I reported earlier. Howard’s previous peaks in both numbers came in his MVP season when he had a .346 ISO and .356 BABIP. That BABIP was matched in his RoY campaign (.354) and has since dropped to .328, .285, and .325 from ’07 through ’09. Let’s ignore all this for a moment though, after all, the argument here is that a change has occurred. A change in plate approach could explain higher than expected BABIPs and ISOs.

What’s the next thing to look at? Howard has seemed to be more patient hasn’t he? Thankfully we have great data for that. Below are graphs of his swinging strikes in this season and April of ’09.

As you can (or can’t) see, there’s not much difference in what Howard is swinging at. He’s still fishing for the ball below the strike zone and off the plate outside. The one large difference I notice is the prominence of low sliders in his 2009 chart. He has yet to face many pitchers with good sliders this season. Let’s head over to fangraphs to see what his plate discipline numbers tell us.

In way of a quick explanation, stats with a Z in front refer to “in the strike zone” and those with O are “outside the strike zone”.  Looking at this chart, a number of striking observations jump out. Howard is swinging at the same percentage of pitches in the zone and out of the zone as he always has. What has changed are his contact rates. He’s hitting almost everything he swings at in the strike zone and he doing more with pitches outside of the strike zone too. The result is he’s swinging and missing less than half as much as he used to. That’s just ridiculous.

Now to counterbalance that point, Howard has faced some pretty damn awful pitchers over the first 7 games with Roy Oswalt being the lone “good” pitcher faced. The teams in question have also been short on the LOOGYs that usually kill Howard in the late innings. Also, these numbers are ridiculous. So undoubtedly they will decline toward league and career norms as the season wears on and he runs into pitchers with better stuff.

Getting back to his ISO and BABIP, when you see a guy who hits the ball as hard as Howard does coupled with a strike out rate around 12%, .469 and .360 really aren’t all that preposterous. IF Howard can maintain something like these ridiculous contact rates, an ISO in the high 300′s and a BABIP north of .330 are not out of the question. And with those kind of numbers, Howard is going to be making tons of real and fantasy noise all throughout the season.

Going forward, we as fans should be looking at two things: is he actually better at making contact this year? and is he trading power for contact rate (and is the tradeoff worthwhile)?

So far so good for Howard and the Phillies, let’s hope they can beat the injury bug and stay hot.

Authors Note: I’d be very interested to see how Howard fared against the John Lannon’s, Craig Stammen’s, and Felipe Paulino’s of the world in the past. Maybe what we’re seeing is almost all bad pitching. That’s a hint for any guys from Fangraphs, THT, or elsewhere who stumble upon this humble analysis. Thanks to TexasLeaguers.com and Fangraphs.com for their great resources.

Injury expert Will Carroll does a nice regular piece called Under The Knife behind the paywall at BaseballProspectus.com. Carroll has access to numerous resources so yesterday I shot him an email trying to dig up new information on Rollins and Werth. Turns out the injury expert has nothing more in depth than I had.

By now, most of you probably know there is no new information. The Grade II calf strain was confirmed via MRI and the soft cast is a precaution. Calf strains of this nature typically take 4-8 weeks to heal, although a 3-4 week time table is still being suggested from many sources. I think the safe assumption is to expect him to take 4-5 weeks before getting back to baseball activities and another week of rehab and games before rejoining the Phillies..

The news on Werth is equally non-existent. Yesterday I speculated on PSD that Werth’s comments sounds like a hip flexor strain. Sure enough the Phillies announced that Werth had a strained hip flexor. These sorts of strains are very minor. If you’re playing an active sport like football or soccer, it’s something you can play through at 90% with minimal discomfort. In a stop and go game like baseball, it’s harder to keep the blood flowing and the muscle loose, making the injury more painful and disruptive. If the diagnosis is correct, it’s something that Werth is capable of playing through. Nevertheless, this is how cascading injuries occur, which is something the Phillies should be keen to avoid. I expect to see Werth back in the lineup by Friday at the very latest and he should be available for PH duties all week. Going forward, expect Werth to be spelled by Francisco every so often for a month or two.

There is of course the chance that he’s pulling a Chase Utley on us, but I think that’s very doubtful considering the time of year and his contract status. If this does turn out to be a larger problem, Ben Francisco can fill in ably. John Mayberry would likely join the team as the right-handed pinch hit threat.

The early injuries hurt, but it’s not yet time to panic folks. Things are getting pretty thin around here though…

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UPDATE: Rollins has been officially placed on the DL. Wilson Valdez will take his spot on the roster.

I’ve just about had it. The Cliff Lee deal has been lambasted by thousands of fans, ESPN analysts, bloggers, Curt Schilling, and now Jimmy Rollins. Everyone acts like Ruben has silently hidden from the media when questioned over this. In reality, he’s probably one hundred times more frustrated than I am about the repeated criticism. Let’s break down what happened again so we can see the logic.

• Phillies trade 3 advanced prospects (and highly touted Jason Knapp) for Cliff Lee
• Phillies determine they can’t sign Cliff Lee to the kind of contract they want
• Phillies determine they CAN sign Halladay to that kind of deal
• Phillies consider trading 3 advanced prospects for Roy Halladay
• Phillies realize that would leave them with 1 advanced prospect
• Phillies need advanced prospects to be competitive in 2011 and beyond
• Phillies decide to use Cliff Lee to add 3 advanced prospects

Does everyone follow the logic? The Phillies wanted to lock up an ace to pitch in front of Cole Hamels. Cliff Lee was not that guy. Roy Halladay was. And as we saw in the payroll series, the Phillies are desperate for cost controlled talent. If you add high priced veterans to an utter dearth of advanced prospects, what you get is the Cubs or Mets. Does any fan want to watch the Phillies turn into the Cubs or Mets? I didn’t think so.

Let’s take this from Ruben’s perspective. Most fans seem to think that the General Manager’s job is to put together the best roster possible. That’s not exactly correct. A GM’s job is to make the ballclub money. The biggest weapon in the GM’s arsenal is the MLB roster. The better the roster, the more money people are willing to pay to see it play. So it is in Amaro’s best interest to field a team today that is likely to compete in the playoffs. Today’s Phillies roster is such a team, even without Cliff Lee.

Ruben also needs to worry about future revenues. Looking at what the Phillies have on paper, they MUST find some cost controlled all-star talent or else they risk being surpassed by the Braves. And as friendly as the fans are today, how long do you think they will financially support a .500ish ballclub? I’m setting the over/under at 50 games. With only Dom Brown, Kyle Kendrick, Antonio Bastardo, Drew Carpenter, and Scott Mathieson as plausible minor league contributors, it’s obvious more talent was needed. Especially since four of those names are rather fringy.

With every passing day, I’m happier with the haul we got from the Lee deal. The injuries Lee’s suffered couldn’t entirely be predicted, but he’s never been the picture of health. Tyson Gillies appears to be a very exciting player in the Shane Victorino mold. Aumont and Ramirez should both factor in at the ML level, whether or not they’re back of the rotation types or front of the bullpen fixtures is still up for interpretation. We also got $8 mil of payroll flexibility. For all that we lost 1 season of Cliff Lee and (probably) a late first and supplemental first round pick.

Cliff Lee, like it or not, was expendable. The Phillies should enjoy the same level of success in the regular season without him. Sure, they may take a 5% hit per round to their playoff chances, but if that’s the price for a competitive roster in 2011, 2012, and beyond, then I’ll take it.

Ruben and the Phillies finally went and did something that I thought they had forgotten they could do, they used the waiver wire. What with Ross Gload, Juan Castro, and Drew Carpenter polluting the roster (among others), a roster move of this sort has been long overdue. I’m thrilled it happened.

I’m not so thrilled with the bounty though. Nelson Figueroa is a 35 year old, mediocre pitcher. Better options have been seemingly available like Chad Gaudin. Figueroa is likely to take the equally mediocre Drew Carpenter’s spot on the team, providing garbage innings and an arm to throw at opposing teams should more of the ‘quality’ starters get hurt. His presence on the team is likely to be brief. As Blanton, Romero, and Lidge return to the team, three of Figueroa, Bastardo, Kendrick, and Herndon have to go elsewhere. All three alternatives are better than Figgy.

In the short run, this is a fine move, it gives the Phils more depth at SP while Blanton is out. It’s a nifty little use of the 25th spot on the roster. Now Ruben has to keep his eyes open for something tastier.

We’ve had one full day of baseball and I’ve seen enough to know who will be making the postseason. I considered making this a probabilities thing where I say the Phillies have a 95% chance to win the division and the Braves have a 5% chance, but where’s the fun in that. So without further ado, my picks for the 2010 playoffs:

• NL East: Philadelphia Phillies
• NL Central: St. Louis Cardinals
• NL West: Colorado Rockies
• NL WC: Atlanta Braves

As you can see, in the NL I’ve ruffled no feathers. The Rockies are becoming the trendy pick over the Dodgers by analysts. I honestly have thought all offseason that the Dodgers could find it difficult to win 85 games, much less the division. The Diamondbacks are not entirely dismissable in that division, despite having some weaknesses. The Giants need to do something about that Brokeback Offense. Adding Aubrey Huff and Mark DeRosa does not qualify as “doing something.”

Everybody and their mom has the Cardinals winning the NL Central, so my pick there isn’t surprising. What probably would surprise you is that if I broke it down by percentages, I think the Cards have maybe a 40% chance to win the division. I like the Brewers a lot more than the rest of the baseball world and have them barely trailing with a 35% chance to take the cake. The rest of the odds are split between the Cubs and Reds.

Occasionally people come up to me and ask, are you worried about the Braves? And in all honesty I am not. I think both the Phillies and Braves are teams capable of putting up 90+ wins and I think that more than guarantees them playoff berths. In my eyes, these two clubs are the class of the NL in 2010 so the disadvantage of facing the “better” playoff team in the NLDS is rather unintimidating.

AL after the break:

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