The promotion was announced just two days after Astros utility scrub Bill Hall declared Phillies starting pitcher Cole Hamels “a marked man.” When asked about the coincidental timing, Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. smugly declined to comment.

The popular game day promotion was last held on August 10, 1999 when the St. Louis Cardinals visited Veterans Stadium. At the time, club officials adamantly denied that the promotion had anything to do with J.D. Drew’s inaugural visit to Philadelphia.

In a separate announcement, the Phillies also declared the April 3rd game a “security holiday.” All security personnel will have the day off.

At the heart of this prediction is a set of probabilities that really contains no separation. I think the split of odds for Yankees/Red Sox/Rays looks something like 36/32/32. So you’ll notice I have the Yankees with the highest odds of winning the division (barely), yet I don’t have them making the playoffs. Odd right? If you look at the Sox and Rays and compare them to the Yankees you’ll notice two things. They aren’t quite as talented as the Bombers, and they are soooooooo much deeper. The Rays in particular are stacked with depth. When nothing really separates 3 teams, I fall back on depth as the tie breaker. The Yankees have an old roster and not much waiting to pick up the slack.

The NL is where I lost points last year.

• NL East: Philadelphia Phillies
• NL Central: St. Louis Cardinals
• NL West: Colorado Rockies
• NL Wild Card: Atlanta Braves

I thought that the East and Wild Card were a lock to be the Phillies and Braves and it played out that way. I also don’t feel too bad about picking the Cardinals. Everyone picked the Cardinals. Looking back, the Reds probably were not a better team. Sometimes shit happens. The real mess was the NL West where I ranked the Giants as an also-ran due to their terrible offense. The Giants were a pretty ordinary team in 2010, the rest of the NL West just really disappointed. I mentioned every NL West team except the Padres who required a Mets-like collapse to miss the postseason. The Rockies were fairly good though, at least I didn’t pick the Dodgers (who were the favorites at the time).

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/blog_article/jump-starting-a-virtuous-cycle/

There are some interesting notes about the Phillies run of success since signing Jim Thome in 2002. The Phillies are the winningest team in the National League, with 716 W’s (the Cardinals trail closely at 714 followed by the Braves at 699).

In addition to being the only team to reach the post season over the last four seasons, the Phillies have won 30 more games (371 wins) than any other NL team (Dodgers, 341 wins). The Yankees won 10 more games (381 wins), but the Phillies are tied second in the major leagues with the Angels (also 371 wins).

It’s easy to forget Jim Thome’s contributions to the Phillies. After all, he was long replaced by Ryan Howard by the time the memorable post season appearances cropped up. Yet Thome wasn’t the only piece to jump start the revenue machine of the Phillies. Let’s not forget the forgettable Kevin Millwood who spun a no hitter before wearing out his welcome. The excitement of acquiring the flamethrowing Billy Wagner was more memorable, especially the secret agent phase of his career when he infiltrated the NY Mets organization and brought it crumbling down from within. Even in leaving, Thome gave back to the Phillies in the form of Aaron Rowand who put up some nice seasons as a Philly before defecting to the left coast. The Phillies should also extend their heartfelt gratitude to the Dodgers, who handed over Shane Victorino and Jayson Werth for free.

One final bit of ephemera, Werth signed a seven year, $126 million deal. Thome signed a six year, $85 million deal in the winter prior to the 2003 season. If we assume a conservative 5% inflation rate on contracts, we find that in 2010 dollars, Jim Thome’s contract was worth $125.58 million.

Is it really so different?

2. Jarred Cosart

3. Jonathan Singleton

4. Trevor May – May turned in another absolutely dominant outing since the recent update. There’s no sign of the command issues that plagued him in Clearwater and if things stay that way, he’ll quickly find himself in the four star category competing with Cosart for top arm in the system.

5. Sebastian Valle

6. Jiwan James

7. Jesse Biddle

8. Brody Colvin

9. Domingo Santana

10. Tyson Gillies – A run in with the law hurts his placement on the prospect list, but it doesn’t entirely strip away his skill. Now there is plenty of added uncertainty as to whether or not Tyson will make it to the big league club. He remains an undeniably better prospect than the large group I nominated as potential #11′s (you can add Harold Garcia to their ranks, a decent utility infield type prospect currently in AA).

And that is that, cocaine use does not mean he’s no longer a prospect, at least not yet. It’s certainly something worth following…

5 Star

1. Dom Brown, age 22 (.225/.227/.350 in 41 PA at MLB level) – So the former top prospect in the minors has had a rough first bounce with the big club. That’s forgivable in itself, he started the year in AA and he has only had the 41 PA. By now we’ve all had a chance to see why I was saying Brown is more like a 4.5 Star prospect than a true 5 star. In the OF he has a cannon and his range is good when he takes a clean route. He moves about the field like BJ Upton in large, loping strides. If he could learn to judge the ball a little better, he could play CF about as well as Werth can. At the plate we haven’t learned much about him and that is where he’ll need to show us something to break camp as a starter next year. Everything looks fine to me despite some general disappointment from the fanbase.

I suspect Dom’s slow start will convince Ruben to grab somebody to platoon with Francisco if Brown has a rough Spring. Hopefully he doesn’t think that’s Gload.

4 Star

2. Jarred Cosart, age 20 (3.79 ERA, 71 IP, 77K, 16BB) – Bad news with Cosart. An elbow injury has ended his season, although Chuck Lamar is hopeful he’ll be recovered for the fall league. This is something to keep an eye on, hopefully it’s something that won’t linger or recur.

3 Star

3. Jonathan Singleton, Age 18 (.296/.392/.487, 13 HR, 57K, 48 BB, 362 PA) – Last update I was mulling moving Singleton all the way up to 4 Star. Now I feel vindicated in keeping him in 3 Star territory (unfortunately). While it’s a great line for an 18 year old in the Sally League, it’s carried by his earlier unworldly mashing. He cooled off of late and in the last 10 games he has a meager .227/.239/.364 line. The plate discipline’s even flown out the door with 9 k’s and 1 BB. The power has cooled considerably as well. He remains a very good 1b prospect, but this serves as a nice reminder that we probably shouldn’t be making plans for the 18 year old with Howard locked up long term. Unless he picks things up now or has himself a nice Fall Season (I assume he’s heading there), he may open 2011 with a repeat at Lakewood.

Of course, there’s a decent chance that all we’re seeing is an 18 year old wearing down from his first full season in pro ball. Despite not playing with a team early in the season, extended Spring Training is just as tiring on a young athlete.

4. Trevor May, Age 20 (2.44 ERA, 48 IP, 67K, 18 BB since demotion): May experienced some serious issues with the walk in Clearwater, handing out 61 free passes in 70 IP. The 90 K demonstrate just how talented he is. Since he was shipped to Lakewood, he’s shown much better control, walking only 18 while still dominating the opposition. Perhaps May could benefit from spending some time under Halladay’s wing because he seems to have adopted the Justin Verlander method of pitching. May will get another shot at Clearwater next season in his age 21 season.

5. Sebastian Valle , Age 19 (.253/.297/.434, 25 2b, 15HR, 92K, 24BB, 423 PA): It’s been a nice full season for Valle who’s continued to demonstrate plus power for a young catcher along with iffy plate discipline. Scouts continue to show some concern about his true defensive position with the consensus being something along the lines of “I think he’ll stick behind the plate.” While it’s a positive comment, it leaves open the possibility that he won’t stick which would be devastating to Sebastian’s prospect status. He’ll move along to Clearwater next season where the Phillies will hope he begins to show some discipline.

6. Jiwan James, Age 21 (.280/.329/.372, 3 HR, 30SB, 17 CS, 111K, 30 BB, 516 PA): The first thing to remember with this ultra toolsy prospect is that he spent the first two season’s of his pro career as a pitcher. He converted back to the OF late last season making this his first full year as a pro position player. The tools are all there, although the power projects the least. He has a powerful arm and the range and speed of a potential plus defender in CF. His plate discipline has improved as the season continued, although he has considerable ground to make up yet. He has a similar ceiling to Dom Brown, except there’s years of distance between the two.

7. Tyson Gillies, Age 21 (Disabled): The good part of the Lee trade seems to have vanished from baseball, ostensibly due to an injured hamstring. I’ve yet to uncover anything, I think I’ll try to get in touch with the guys over at Phuture Phillies and see what they’ve heard.

8. Jesse Biddle, Age 18 (3.06 ERA, 32.1 IP, 39K, 9BB): Not a bad introduction to professional baseball. The Phillies local, first round pick has done well since joining the GCL and is angling for a full season assignment in 2011. There’s not much more to say right now, he’s good but he’s young. We’ll see how things go.

9. Brody Colvin, Age 19 (3.17, 122IP, 108K, 39BB): Colvin was expected to be a project, but he’s settled in nicely in the Sally League. There’s not much to update, he’s having a nice season and  should get a crack at continuing things in Clearwater next season.

10. Domingo Santana, Age 17 (.249/.342/.385, 5HR, 64K, 21BB, 190 PA for Short-Season Williamsport): We’ve covered Domingo’s earlier struggles as the Sally League’s youngest player. While he failed that particular challenge, he has gotten a taste of playing a full season’s worth of games. He remains young, even in the New York-Penn League, but not unheard of young. The power output is a bit disappointing but not unforgivable from one so young. He’s still striking out way too often, but his 33% rate is an improvement. Otherwise, his plate discipline has remained as he’s still drawing plenty of walks.

Bonus!

11. Kelly Dugan , Age 19, (.541/.630/.730 in limited action)/Others: Another ultra toolsy type, Dugan has butchered Rookie League pitchers in seven games. Of course, that doesn’t mean jack, but it’s encouraged me enough about him accessing his tools that I’ve listed him as #11.

Truly, the Phillies have a number of players worth consideration here. Austin Hyatt probably heads the pack of candidates for #11. He’s had himself a strong season despite lukewarm reviews from scouts. There’s still something to Phillippe Aumont and fellow former Mariner J.C. Ramirez has been solid but unspectacular this season (better than Aumont at least). Vance Worley looks like the next spot starter of the system, I’m not sure how he fits onto a Major League roster, but he will (just as Kyle Kendrick does). Relievers Scott Mathieson, Antonio Bastardo, and Michael Schwimer should be helping out at the ML level next season and could all be considered our 11th best. One thing to notice, of the 8 players I named as a potential #11, only Dugan is a position player.

When you’re a beat writer for the Kansas City Royals, it only takes one article to make them look ridiculous on three levels…

http://kansascity.royals.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20100813&content_id=13407730&notebook_id=13409752&vkey=notebook_hou&fext=.jsp&c_id=kc

Bloomquist expresses happiness for Guillen

“Jose is a unique teammate, and I mean that in a good way,” Bloomquist said. “I think sometimes he was misunderstood a little bit. One thing I know for sure about Jose is he wants to win and you’ve got to respect that about him. Sometimes he might say a thing or two that might not jibe very well with everybody else, but the bottom line is the guy wants to win. He’s a competitor and, above all else, I’ll take that any day of the week — a guy that wants to win.”

Willie Bloomquist, a teammate of Jose Guillen on both the Royals and the Mariners, was happy that Guillen landed with the contending San Francisco Giants.

“That’s what it’s all about — trying to get to the postseason,” Bloomquist said. “Especially with someone later in his career like him, it’s all about trying to get a ring and win the thing.”

Guillen, traded with cash on Friday for a player to be named, had his share of home runs and RBIs as well as a few controversies in his nearly three years with the Royals.

What I think Willie means to say here is that he’s glad there are still organizations like the San Francisco Giants who will acquire fringy veterans just for the sake of having them. Being a fringy veteran himself and of equally dubious utility, Bloomquist has to be heartened that there might be life (in baseball at least) after KC.

Kendall’s longevity celebrated by Royals

Just before Jason Kendall took the field for the 2,014th time as a catcher on Friday, the Royals honored him for his perseverance and longevity.

Kendall was presented with a plaque of a full-sized, blue-and-gold catcher’s mask, a framed jersey bearing the No. 2,000 and a montage of photos from his games. The Kauffman Stadium crowd saw video highlights from his years with the Pirates, A’s, Cubs, Brewers and Royals.

This response could get pretty lengthy. I could focus on Kendall’s lack of talent. I could question the decision of every franchise post A’s to play him. I could even rip the Royals for cutting All-Star John Buck so that they could add Kendall for two years. Maybe I’d note that Kendall’s played a whopping 107 of those games as a Royal.

But my real question is…Why did they wait until game 2,014 to honor him for #2,000? At first I thought to myself, there must be some explanation, perhaps they were away? Nope, home for game #2,000 (and 2,001 in case they were worried he would slip and fall before the game). The only explanation I can conceive is that the Royals didn’t realize it until it was too late and then decided “Oh, we should honor him.”

I wonder if the photo montage included his broken ankle…

DeJesus to be honored for Heart and Hussle

Left fielder David DeJesus will be back on the field on Saturday night — but just long enough to receive an award before the game against the Yankees.

DeJesus is the Royals winner of the Heart and Hustle Award presented by the Major League Baseball Player Alumni Association. The award will be presented by former Royals outfielder Brian McRae.

As goofy as it sounds, the award is given to a player on all 30 teams so I won’t get into a rant about unnecessary awards. I wonder if Carl Crawford is disqualified because he’s too good to need to Hussle?

What I find comical is that the Royals had to reach to their disabled list to pick a viable candidate. Their team is that devoid of Heart and/or Hussle.

2,014 game player Jason Kendall was also considered for the award but was found not to have hussled in games 1,487 and 1,993.

3 Star Athletes

4. Trevor May, Age 20, NEUTRAL: Keeping May up at #4 was a tough choice. His stuff is fantastic with some scouts calling it the best in the system, but he’s plagued with walks, racking up 47 in 56.2 IP. It’s his 78 K’s over that period that show just how good his stuff is, but I wonder if he isn’t trying too hard to get those strike outs. The issue here is simple, the control has to improve. If it does, the Phillies could have a great arm to pair with Cosart. If it doesn’t they’ll be hoping they can squeeze some relief innings out of him. 4 Star upside, 2 star downside.

5. Sebastian Valle, Age 19, NEUTRAL: Like with May, Valle doesn’t feel like a #5 but I’m not quite ready to upgrade some of the guys I like below him. Right now he’s merely surviving the Sally League while continuing to show good power for a 19 year old catcher by bashing 8 home runs. There’s not much else new to say about him, the defense remains a passing concern, but we’re not going to know if it’s a true issue until he fills out. As a reminder, Valle isn’t a prospect if he isn’t catching.

6. Tyson Gillies, Age 21, NEUTRAL: Gillies was on the DL from May 10th to June 15th so he hasn’t done anything to warrant a change in ranking. When he went on the DL he was just starting to pick things up so he’s one to keep an eye on. In his one game back, he went 1-5 with an SB. He still has 4 star upside

7. Phillippe Aumont, Age 21, STOCK DOWN: Le sigh…Aumont went from showing some encouraging signs of life to imploding. Downgrading him to #7 is probably an overreaction on my part given his physical tools, but I’m concerned that he’s more than a little bit broken right now. Word on the street is that the fastball isn’t the heavy sinker the Phillies thought they were buying. Aumont was recently demoted to Clearwater where’s he’s had two appearances out of the bullpen. This is frustrating to watch…

8. Jiwan James, Age 21, STOCK UP: James is a personal favorite of mine and epitomizes the Phillies prospect profile. Jiwan spent the better part of two years in the system as a pitcher before converting back to OF. He couples great speed with a powerful arm, raw power at the plate, and decent contact skills. His plate discipline still leaves a lot to be desired. After a very slow start to the season, James has heated up in June, catching multiple comments from prospect maven Kevin Goldstein. He’ll need to show his June success is the result actual improvement rather than natural variation. If he does he could become one of our top prospects very quickly as his tools rate out as similar to Dom Brown’s. It’ll probably be a bumpy, slow climb up the organizational ladder for James. Jiwan has 5 star upside if you squint although he could crash and burn against advanced pitching. I look at James as one of those Garrett Jones/Raul Ibanez type players who don’t figure things out until late in their careers.

9. Brody Colvin: Age 19, STOCK UP: Statistically, Colvin hasn’t been particularly impressive with a 4.54 ERA, 24 BB’s to 63 K’s in 69.1 IP. He jumps onto the list because he’s made some incremental improvements with his control in recent outings without sacrificing the strike outs. The Phillies aren’t likely to push Brody, but he has the foundations of a mid rotation pitcher down the road. Keep an eye on him, but he’s a long long ways away.

10. Domingo Santana: Age 17, NEUTRAL: Santana was sent to extend spring training after being over matched as the youngest player in the Sally League. Look for him in the New York Penn League soon. His bat seemingly has a large hole in it, though his plate discipline draws positive reviews. As he ages, he should get better bat control and develop strong plate skills.

By way of reminder, the ranking system is a pretty straight forward 1-5 star system. 5 stars is elite, 4 stars is good to great MLB regular, 3 stars is useful but not spectacular prospect, 2 stars is organizational soldier, and 1 star = non-prospect.

5 Star Athletes

1. Domonic Brown, age 22, STOCK UP: Brown is in the midst of an almost slump going 11 for 39 in his last 10 games. It’s probably a good sign that I’m calling a .766 OPS performance “an almost slump”.  Aside from that little update, there isn’t much new to say. Brown is continuing to impress scouts by showing power. He’ll will be considered MLB ready if he can continue to display this 25 homerun pace after a promotion to AAA. I assume that promotion is forthcoming. Knowing the Phillies, they will find a way to block him until mid-2011. Even with the power development, he still looks like a 4.5 Star prospect…

4 Star Athletes:

2. Jared Cosart, age 20, STOCK UP: Cosart has continued to battle a blister on his throwing hand. So long as it doesn’t become a Josh Beckett situation this is fine. It actually forces the Phillies to limit his workload at a time when they might be tempted to push him. He has 3 starts in June and has combined to pitch 20 innings while allowing 4 runs. He continues to show good strike zone numbers with 18 k’s against 6 walks in those starts. I haven’t gotten any new reports on his offspeed stuff so he’s still a 5 star upside, 3 star downside pitcher. If his secondary stuff develops, he has a good chance of being a mid-rotation pitcher or better. With his impressive 73/15 K/BB ratio in 63.2 innings, a promotion to Clearwater is probably on the horizon.

3 Star Athletes

3. Jonathan Singleton, age 18, STOCK UP: This is the oversight I mentioned. As a 17 year old in rookie ball, Singleton showed great plate discipline with 18 walks and 13 strikeouts in 119 PA’s. The power was underwhelming (but not entirely absent) with just two homeruns and nine doubles. He ended up with a triple slash of .290/.395/.420 which is a nice debut.

The Phillies recently decided to challenge Singleton by assigning him to low A Lakewood. Unlike fellow youngster Domingo Santana, Singleton has absolutely dominated the level. In 32 games (137 PA) he’s mashed and bashed his way to a .405/.496/.698 line with seven bombs, 21 walks, and 24 strikeouts. His battering of the Sally League has earned him nearly daily mention in Kevin Goldstein’s Prospect Watch. The Phillies are usually aggressive with their prospects in the lower levels so continued dominance from Singleton might result in a late season promotion to Clearwater. Singleton is flashing a 5 star bat right now and I was tempted to file this under the 4 star category.

As bad as that sounds, it’s not like the offense is broken. There’s a lot of angles to approach illustrating that, I’m going to take the easiest and link you to some other articles:

-Bill Baer at Crashburn Alley advises patience while citing research from JC Bradbury (basically, slumps happen)

-Pat Andriola at THT Live wonders if we’re trying too hard to contextualize a random occurrence

______

Some of you have noticed my post rate is way down. I’m in the midst of moving from Minnesota to D.C. I’ve also started writing for The Hardball Times Live. I’m excited about the opportunity to write about league wide activities. If you head over to the THT Live page you can find my articles about Buster Posey and Stephen Strasburg. The Carlos Santana profile will be published tomorrow. I will still be posting here as needed.

The ranking system is pretty straight forward and is described below. All evaluations come with upside/downside projections and of course rely on the player remaining healthy. For this update, I’ll note any status changes from the previous list in a stock up/stock down format.

The ranking system:

• 5 star – Future All-Star/Elite talent.
• 4 star – MLB average to above average talents.  Players who will consistently put up between 2-4 WAR most healthy seasons.
• 3 star – MLB role players.  These guys may or may not be starters but they will usually be between .5-2.5 WAR per season.
• 2 star – Replacement level/Organizational soldier.  These guys will probably have fringe MLB talent and will struggle to become more than the 25th man on a roster.  Sometimes these guys are briefly useful and sometimes they fool everyone.
• 1 star – Really? is this ever going to show up on a top 10 list?  A 1 star athlete has no semblance of talent or projectability.  When a player is listed with 1 star downside, that means there is considerable risk of him being a complete bust.

5 Star Athletes:

1. Domonic Brown, age 22, STOCK UP: Brown remains King of the Hill by authoring a .347/.402/.607 triple slash with the Reading Phils to date. Scouts were just beginning to seriously worry that Brown’s power ceiling might be lower than they thought after popping only one homerun in April. He’s since allayed those fears by hitting 3 in the early part of May. There’s not much else to say about Brown, he’s dominating non-Strasburg pitcher’s in AA and it’s only a matter of time until he’s promoted to AAA. Brown still has 4 star downside.

4 Star Athletes:

2. Jarred Cosart, age 20, STOCK UP: When I profiled Cosart in March, I ranked him 7th while saying that I thought he would either be #2 or not on the list at all next year. Right now it looks like the first part of that statement is more accurate. As a 20 year old in the Sally League, Cosart has dominated competition over 23.1 IP with 29 K’s, 5 BB, and 16 hits allowed. He has impressive command for a youngster but scouts describe his secondary stuff as raw. His blistering fastball is simply too good for the level. Speaking of blisters, he’s currently having a minor problem with a recurring blister. It’s something to watch, although Josh Beckett is the only guy I can think of who was ever seriously hampered by a blister. Right now, Cosart’s develop awaits further development of his secondary stuff. The Phillies could opt to leave him in low A to toy with weaker hitters or they could aggressive promote him until he reaches a level where he’s forced to develop the offspeed stuff. The Phillies are generally aggressive so expect the latter approach. Cosart has 5 star upside, but I don’t really see him reaching it. If his secondary stuff doesn’t come along, he’s a 3 star pen prospect.

3 Star Athletes:

3. Phillippe Aumont, Age 21, STOCK UP: This is a weak stock up. Aumont has shown flashes of brilliance mixed with mediocrity. I’m still pessimistic about his ability to stick in the rotation, but less so than a month ago. I can see why scouts get excited about him. His fastball is downright filthy with almost splitter like movement at times. Seriously, it’s disgusting. His breaking ball flashes plus but still hangs waaaaay too often from what I’ve seen and been told. He’s still battling through some mechanical changes which seems to be showing up in the stats line. His most recent outing was a 1.2 IP, 4 run, 3 hit, 5 walk affair. The outing before that was a 6 IP, 4 K, 2 BB, no hitter. At this point, I’m tempted to say the only thing holding him back is his command and control. Pitchers who feature fastballs as bottom heavy as Aumont’s tend to have difficulty finding the strike zone. I no longer see Aumont as the closer of the future. If he develops enough to be closer quality, he’s going to be of much greater use in the rotation. Conversely, if his development arrests, he won’t be more than a hard throwing middle reliever. 4 star upside, 2 star downside.

4. Trevor May, Age 20, STOCK UP: I liked May back in March and I still do. May has been ridiculous in A+. He currently has 39 K’s in 24 IP, good for 14.6 K/9. His walk rate is still too high (12 bb, 4.5 BB/9), but it looks better after yesterday’s dominant 6IP, 6 hit, 10 K, 1 bb performance. Despite the control problems, the Phillies might be forced to promote the 20 year old before long. Honestly, I still don’t know much about his stuff, but between the mediocre command and ridiculous strikeout rate, I can intuit that the stuff for greatness is there. I’ll try to get more info on him from BPro’s Kevin Goldstein* when I get the chance. I’m thinking 4 star upside for now with 3 star, high leveraged reliever as the downside. He could quickly leapfrog Aumont if he can improve the control.

UPDATE: I got the following info from KG:

May has some of the better stuff in the Phillies system, but he’s a long way from harnessing it, as inconsistent and at times sloppy mechanics lead to widely varying velocity, break and command.  So far in the Florida State League, the 20-year-old has been putting it all together, sitting consistently in the low 90s while touching 94 mph, showcasing two much-improved secondary pitches in his curveball and change, all while striking out 39 in just 24 innings.  He’s walked 12 and hit a pair of batters, so the control is still shaky, but this has the potential for a major step forward.

5. Sebastian Valle, age 19, NEUTRAL: Valle is bordering on downgrade territory but I’ll give him a pass based on youth and position. There’s still some grumbled concern about Valle’s ability to remain behind the plate, but most scouts seem optimistic. It probably helps that Valle isn’t a prospect at any other position so he can either learn to master the tools of ignorance or he can forget about the majors. As a 19 year old in the Sally League, he’s on the young side and showing it in the early going. His 21 K against 5 BB are discouraging and I may have been just a tad over-aggressive when I predicted his bat would be MLB ready in 2 years. I still think that 4 year projection I ultimately settled on seems right, so as long as he stays healthy the Phillies could have a pretty smooth transition from Ruiz to Valle.

6. Tyson Gillies, Age 21, STOCK UP: The stock up rating has everything to do with me miss-ranking him and nothing to do with his performance to date. After a strong spring training, the Phillies decided they agreed with me and set out to eliminate his Juan Pierre slappy approach. I haven’t really gotten to see him play this year so I can’t report how that’s going. I can tell you his plate discipline numbers are nothing short of disappointing (21K against 4 BB) and he’s had little opportunity to flash his speed on the bases with 1 steal in 3 attempts. The steals are more worrying than the plate discipline since he managed 60 walks against 81 K’s last year. He’s currently in the midst of a 10 for 26 with 2 BB/4K stretch so it’s possible that either things have finally clicked, he changed back to his previous approach, or some positive regression has finally set in. In any case he has a lot of room between where he’s been and his ceiling so we could see his stock rise dramatically as the season goes on. 4 star upside, 2 star downside.

7. Domingo Santana, age 17, NEUTRAL: Santana is currently the youngest player in the Sally League by a wide margin and is plainly over-matched. I imagine this is partly by design, I expect the Phillies want to get Domingo a full season of ball. As such, I think we’ll see him in Williamsport once their season opens up. There have been some encouraging signs from Santana. The power is still there, he has 2 bombs in 78 abs. However he’s struck out 36 times against 18 walks. He’ll need to work on the holes in his swing but he has the makings of good plate discipline and scouts agree. He’s a long way out still, and his upside/downside remains unchanged. It’s nice to see him forced down the list by people leapfrogging him.

2 Star Athletes

8. JC Ramirez, age 21, NEUTRAL: Ramirez has been better than his 4.40 ERA suggests, yet not so much for his stock to go up. He’s done everything you could ask him to do and not a bit more, striking out nearly 9 per 9IP (28K in 30.2 IP) and walking only 7. He’s also allowed a hit per inning. I have no updates on his stuff or mechanics at this time. By virtue of performing adequately, Ramirez should head off to Reading before long. I’m not sure if I see him as a starter or reliever at this point, but like Aumont, the Phillies will give him every chance to develop. For the record, he’s just a tiny step forward from being a 3 star prospect which just so happens to be his upside.

9. Leandro Castro, age 21, STOCK UP: Lakewood’s outfield might have the most upside of any unit in the game with Domingo Santana, Jiwan James, and Anthony Hewitt patrolling the grounds. Castro has silently been better than all of them. While his tools are significantly less flashy, he makes up for it with decent polish. Castro looks like a 4th OF type with tools similar to Ben Francisco. He’s on this list thanks to a quick start in Lakewood, I’m not sure he has any upside/downside at this point. His absolute upper ceiling is a Coco Crisp type player, but I expect much much less out of him. Don’t be surprised if he vanishes entirely from future updates.

10. Antonio Bastardo, Age 24, NEUTRAL: I couldn’t decide on Bastardo or Mayberry Jr for this slot so we’re going 11 deep today. Bastardo remains an MLB ready reliever and will be back at some point this season. In his brief stint with the big club he showed some uncharacteristic control issues. Long term I still think he’s a better lefty reliever than JC Romero and isn’t necessarily a LOOGY despite his penchant for lefty on lefty violence.

11. John Mayberry Jr, age 26, STOCK UP: I’ve dismissed Mayberry Jr as a prospect in the past, but he’s pushed his way back into the discussion. In the early going with Lehigh, Mayberry’s plate discipline has improved to the point where he can be considered a Ben Francisco quality 3.5 OF. He still has big power that could translate to prolonged periods of MLB average hitting although he’s more of a 0 to 1 WAR player. Still it’s nice to see him developing enough to be a part of future plans. There’s a chance he suffers some negative regression, but these trends are a continuation of what I observed in spring training. He currently features a 298/.382/.532 triple slash but between a .383 BABIP and the AAA pitching, that probably translates to a .240/.330/.440 line.

Other Mentionables(In no particular order):

Anthony Hewitt, OF, STOCK UP: The much contested former first round pick is showing signs of figuring some things out. The output is still pretty ugly but the progress is undeniable.

Anthony Gose, OF, STOCK DOWN: Gose has failed to improve in any facet of his game thus far. His improved ISO is mostly thanks to several triples. He could quickly rebound into the 3 star category but I need to see his plate discipline show signs of improvement. I did a quick update a few days ago and criticized his 7 steals in 11 attempts. In the 3 days since he stole 7 bases and was caught once upping his totals to 14 in 19 attempts.

Nicolas Hernandez, SP, STOCK UP: Hernandez is a tall lefty who’s making a mockery of the Sally League. He’s edging towards old for the league and I wouldn’t be surprised if he sees a promotion before his next start. I need to see this continue in Clearwater before I consider moving him onto the list. He could debut as high as #6 if he keeps pitching like this.

Jiwan James, OF, NEUTRAL: James has yet to put things together in the Sally League. Although he’s already 21, he’s developmentally behind his peers since he lost 2 years to pitching. His raw skills are comparable to Dom Brown with some blinding speed thrown in for good measure. So far, none of that has come together, but this is the kind of guy who builds franchises if he figures things out. Funny how the Phillies stockpile those types.

Brody Colvin, P, WATCH

Jonathan Pettibone, P, WATCH

Scott Mathieson, P, WATCH

Austin Hyatt, P, WATCH

Heitor Correa, P, WATCH

Jonathan Villar, SS, WATCH

Jeremy Barnes, SS, WATCH