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The Phillies have announced that their Sunday, April 3rd game against the Houston Astros will be the first dollar battery day of the season. It is expected to be one of several in 2011.Various brands and types of batteries are expected to be available at most vendors ranging from tiny Triple-A batteries to those typically found in motor vehicles.

The promotion was announced just two days after Astros utility scrub Bill Hall declared Phillies starting pitcher Cole Hamels “a marked man.” When asked about the coincidental timing, Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. smugly declined to comment.

The popular game day promotion was last held on August 10, 1999 when the St. Louis Cardinals visited Veterans Stadium. At the time, club officials adamantly denied that the promotion had anything to do with J.D. Drew’s inaugural visit to Philadelphia.

In a separate announcement, the Phillies also declared the April 3rd game a “security holiday.” All security personnel will have the day off.

The Jayson Werth contract has unleashed a wide range of reactions and it seems everyone here at PLD has felt the need to chime in. Over at The Hardball Times Live today, you can find my own reaction. I think this should be of interest to many of our readers, yet unfortunately it’s property of THT and cannot be re-posted here. The meat of the article focuses on the Phillies circa 2003, a time when they were in a similar position to today’s Nats. The parallels aren’t perfect but they’re there.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/blog_article/jump-starting-a-virtuous-cycle/

There are some interesting notes about the Phillies run of success since signing Jim Thome in 2002. The Phillies are the winningest team in the National League, with 716 W’s (the Cardinals trail closely at 714 followed by the Braves at 699).

In addition to being the only team to reach the post season over the last four seasons, the Phillies have won 30 more games (371 wins) than any other NL team (Dodgers, 341 wins). The Yankees won 10 more games (381 wins), but the Phillies are tied second in the major leagues with the Angels (also 371 wins).

It’s easy to forget Jim Thome’s contributions to the Phillies. After all, he was long replaced by Ryan Howard by the time the memorable post season appearances cropped up. Yet Thome wasn’t the only piece to jump start the revenue machine of the Phillies. Let’s not forget the forgettable Kevin Millwood who spun a no hitter before wearing out his welcome. The excitement of acquiring the flamethrowing Billy Wagner was more memorable, especially the secret agent phase of his career when he infiltrated the NY Mets organization and brought it crumbling down from within. Even in leaving, Thome gave back to the Phillies in the form of Aaron Rowand who put up some nice seasons as a Philly before defecting to the left coast. The Phillies should also extend their heartfelt gratitude to the Dodgers, who handed over Shane Victorino and Jayson Werth for free.

One final bit of ephemera, Werth signed a seven year, $126 million deal. Thome signed a six year, $85 million deal in the winter prior to the 2003 season. If we assume a conservative 5% inflation rate on contracts, we find that in 2010 dollars, Jim Thome’s contract was worth $125.58 million.

Is it really so different?

1. Dom Brown

2. Jarred Cosart

3. Jonathan Singleton

4. Trevor May – May turned in another absolutely dominant outing since the recent update. There’s no sign of the command issues that plagued him in Clearwater and if things stay that way, he’ll quickly find himself in the four star category competing with Cosart for top arm in the system.

5. Sebastian Valle

6. Jiwan James

7. Jesse Biddle

8. Brody Colvin

9. Domingo Santana

10. Tyson Gillies – A run in with the law hurts his placement on the prospect list, but it doesn’t entirely strip away his skill. Now there is plenty of added uncertainty as to whether or not Tyson will make it to the big league club. He remains an undeniably better prospect than the large group I nominated as potential #11′s (you can add Harold Garcia to their ranks, a decent utility infield type prospect currently in AA).

And that is that, cocaine use does not mean he’s no longer a prospect, at least not yet. It’s certainly something worth following…

Let’s launch into it quick and dirty, the rating system is intuitive after all. One thing to note, everything after Singleton is really up to interpretation. These guys are all talented, young, and toolsy, but they also all have to learn a couple things to ever taste the bigs.

5 Star

1. Dom Brown, age 22 (.225/.227/.350 in 41 PA at MLB level) – So the former top prospect in the minors has had a rough first bounce with the big club. That’s forgivable in itself, he started the year in AA and he has only had the 41 PA. By now we’ve all had a chance to see why I was saying Brown is more like a 4.5 Star prospect than a true 5 star. In the OF he has a cannon and his range is good when he takes a clean route. He moves about the field like BJ Upton in large, loping strides. If he could learn to judge the ball a little better, he could play CF about as well as Werth can. At the plate we haven’t learned much about him and that is where he’ll need to show us something to break camp as a starter next year. Everything looks fine to me despite some general disappointment from the fanbase.

I suspect Dom’s slow start will convince Ruben to grab somebody to platoon with Francisco if Brown has a rough Spring. Hopefully he doesn’t think that’s Gload.

4 Star

2. Jarred Cosart, age 20 (3.79 ERA, 71 IP, 77K, 16BB) – Bad news with Cosart. An elbow injury has ended his season, although Chuck Lamar is hopeful he’ll be recovered for the fall league. This is something to keep an eye on, hopefully it’s something that won’t linger or recur.

3 Star

3. Jonathan Singleton, Age 18 (.296/.392/.487, 13 HR, 57K, 48 BB, 362 PA) – Last update I was mulling moving Singleton all the way up to 4 Star. Now I feel vindicated in keeping him in 3 Star territory (unfortunately). While it’s a great line for an 18 year old in the Sally League, it’s carried by his earlier unworldly mashing. He cooled off of late and in the last 10 games he has a meager .227/.239/.364 line. The plate discipline’s even flown out the door with 9 k’s and 1 BB. The power has cooled considerably as well. He remains a very good 1b prospect, but this serves as a nice reminder that we probably shouldn’t be making plans for the 18 year old with Howard locked up long term. Unless he picks things up now or has himself a nice Fall Season (I assume he’s heading there), he may open 2011 with a repeat at Lakewood.

Of course, there’s a decent chance that all we’re seeing is an 18 year old wearing down from his first full season in pro ball. Despite not playing with a team early in the season, extended Spring Training is just as tiring on a young athlete.

4. Trevor May, Age 20 (2.44 ERA, 48 IP, 67K, 18 BB since demotion): May experienced some serious issues with the walk in Clearwater, handing out 61 free passes in 70 IP. The 90 K demonstrate just how talented he is. Since he was shipped to Lakewood, he’s shown much better control, walking only 18 while still dominating the opposition. Perhaps May could benefit from spending some time under Halladay’s wing because he seems to have adopted the Justin Verlander method of pitching. May will get another shot at Clearwater next season in his age 21 season.

5. Sebastian Valle , Age 19 (.253/.297/.434, 25 2b, 15HR, 92K, 24BB, 423 PA): It’s been a nice full season for Valle who’s continued to demonstrate plus power for a young catcher along with iffy plate discipline. Scouts continue to show some concern about his true defensive position with the consensus being something along the lines of “I think he’ll stick behind the plate.” While it’s a positive comment, it leaves open the possibility that he won’t stick which would be devastating to Sebastian’s prospect status. He’ll move along to Clearwater next season where the Phillies will hope he begins to show some discipline.

6. Jiwan James, Age 21 (.280/.329/.372, 3 HR, 30SB, 17 CS, 111K, 30 BB, 516 PA): The first thing to remember with this ultra toolsy prospect is that he spent the first two season’s of his pro career as a pitcher. He converted back to the OF late last season making this his first full year as a pro position player. The tools are all there, although the power projects the least. He has a powerful arm and the range and speed of a potential plus defender in CF. His plate discipline has improved as the season continued, although he has considerable ground to make up yet. He has a similar ceiling to Dom Brown, except there’s years of distance between the two.

7. Tyson Gillies, Age 21 (Disabled): The good part of the Lee trade seems to have vanished from baseball, ostensibly due to an injured hamstring. I’ve yet to uncover anything, I think I’ll try to get in touch with the guys over at Phuture Phillies and see what they’ve heard.

8. Jesse Biddle, Age 18 (3.06 ERA, 32.1 IP, 39K, 9BB): Not a bad introduction to professional baseball. The Phillies local, first round pick has done well since joining the GCL and is angling for a full season assignment in 2011. There’s not much more to say right now, he’s good but he’s young. We’ll see how things go.

9. Brody Colvin, Age 19 (3.17, 122IP, 108K, 39BB): Colvin was expected to be a project, but he’s settled in nicely in the Sally League. There’s not much to update, he’s having a nice season and  should get a crack at continuing things in Clearwater next season.

10. Domingo Santana, Age 17 (.249/.342/.385, 5HR, 64K, 21BB, 190 PA for Short-Season Williamsport): We’ve covered Domingo’s earlier struggles as the Sally League’s youngest player. While he failed that particular challenge, he has gotten a taste of playing a full season’s worth of games. He remains young, even in the New York-Penn League, but not unheard of young. The power output is a bit disappointing but not unforgivable from one so young. He’s still striking out way too often, but his 33% rate is an improvement. Otherwise, his plate discipline has remained as he’s still drawing plenty of walks.

Bonus!

11. Kelly Dugan , Age 19, (.541/.630/.730 in limited action)/Others: Another ultra toolsy type, Dugan has butchered Rookie League pitchers in seven games. Of course, that doesn’t mean jack, but it’s encouraged me enough about him accessing his tools that I’ve listed him as #11.

Truly, the Phillies have a number of players worth consideration here. Austin Hyatt probably heads the pack of candidates for #11. He’s had himself a strong season despite lukewarm reviews from scouts. There’s still something to Phillippe Aumont and fellow former Mariner J.C. Ramirez has been solid but unspectacular this season (better than Aumont at least). Vance Worley looks like the next spot starter of the system, I’m not sure how he fits onto a Major League roster, but he will (just as Kyle Kendrick does). Relievers Scott Mathieson, Antonio Bastardo, and Michael Schwimer should be helping out at the ML level next season and could all be considered our 11th best. One thing to notice, of the 8 players I named as a potential #11, only Dugan is a position player.

My gig at The Hardball Times doesn’t leave much scope for mercilessly panning major league teams. So from time to time I’ll come here to give you updates of the laughable from around the league…

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We’re jumping back in at #4 today. Some of these updates are briefer than others…

3 Star Athletes

4. Trevor May, Age 20, NEUTRAL: Keeping May up at #4 was a tough choice. His stuff is fantastic with some scouts calling it the best in the system, but he’s plagued with walks, racking up 47 in 56.2 IP. It’s his 78 K’s over that period that show just how good his stuff is, but I wonder if he isn’t trying too hard to get those strike outs. The issue here is simple, the control has to improve. If it does, the Phillies could have a great arm to pair with Cosart. If it doesn’t they’ll be hoping they can squeeze some relief innings out of him. 4 Star upside, 2 star downside.

5. Sebastian Valle, Age 19, NEUTRAL: Like with May, Valle doesn’t feel like a #5 but I’m not quite ready to upgrade some of the guys I like below him. Right now he’s merely surviving the Sally League while continuing to show good power for a 19 year old catcher by bashing 8 home runs. There’s not much else new to say about him, the defense remains a passing concern, but we’re not going to know if it’s a true issue until he fills out. As a reminder, Valle isn’t a prospect if he isn’t catching.

6. Tyson Gillies, Age 21, NEUTRAL: Gillies was on the DL from May 10th to June 15th so he hasn’t done anything to warrant a change in ranking. When he went on the DL he was just starting to pick things up so he’s one to keep an eye on. In his one game back, he went 1-5 with an SB. He still has 4 star upside

7. Phillippe Aumont, Age 21, STOCK DOWN: Le sigh…Aumont went from showing some encouraging signs of life to imploding. Downgrading him to #7 is probably an overreaction on my part given his physical tools, but I’m concerned that he’s more than a little bit broken right now. Word on the street is that the fastball isn’t the heavy sinker the Phillies thought they were buying. Aumont was recently demoted to Clearwater where’s he’s had two appearances out of the bullpen. This is frustrating to watch…

8. Jiwan James, Age 21, STOCK UP: James is a personal favorite of mine and epitomizes the Phillies prospect profile. Jiwan spent the better part of two years in the system as a pitcher before converting back to OF. He couples great speed with a powerful arm, raw power at the plate, and decent contact skills. His plate discipline still leaves a lot to be desired. After a very slow start to the season, James has heated up in June, catching multiple comments from prospect maven Kevin Goldstein. He’ll need to show his June success is the result actual improvement rather than natural variation. If he does he could become one of our top prospects very quickly as his tools rate out as similar to Dom Brown’s. It’ll probably be a bumpy, slow climb up the organizational ladder for James. Jiwan has 5 star upside if you squint although he could crash and burn against advanced pitching. I look at James as one of those Garrett Jones/Raul Ibanez type players who don’t figure things out until late in their careers.

9. Brody Colvin: Age 19, STOCK UP: Statistically, Colvin hasn’t been particularly impressive with a 4.54 ERA, 24 BB’s to 63 K’s in 69.1 IP. He jumps onto the list because he’s made some incremental improvements with his control in recent outings without sacrificing the strike outs. The Phillies aren’t likely to push Brody, but he has the foundations of a mid rotation pitcher down the road. Keep an eye on him, but he’s a long long ways away.

10. Domingo Santana: Age 17, NEUTRAL: Santana was sent to extend spring training after being over matched as the youngest player in the Sally League. Look for him in the New York Penn League soon. His bat seemingly has a large hole in it, though his plate discipline draws positive reviews. As he ages, he should get better bat control and develop strong plate skills.

In the third installation of this series, I’m going to attempt to improve my selections and redress a past oversight. I’m also going to split things up so that the numbers can remain current. Today is #s 1-3.

By way of reminder, the ranking system is a pretty straight forward 1-5 star system. 5 stars is elite, 4 stars is good to great MLB regular, 3 stars is useful but not spectacular prospect, 2 stars is organizational soldier, and 1 star = non-prospect.

5 Star Athletes

1. Domonic Brown, age 22, STOCK UP: Brown is in the midst of an almost slump going 11 for 39 in his last 10 games. It’s probably a good sign that I’m calling a .766 OPS performance “an almost slump”.  Aside from that little update, there isn’t much new to say. Brown is continuing to impress scouts by showing power. He’ll will be considered MLB ready if he can continue to display this 25 homerun pace after a promotion to AAA. I assume that promotion is forthcoming. Knowing the Phillies, they will find a way to block him until mid-2011. Even with the power development, he still looks like a 4.5 Star prospect…

4 Star Athletes:

2. Jared Cosart, age 20, STOCK UP: Cosart has continued to battle a blister on his throwing hand. So long as it doesn’t become a Josh Beckett situation this is fine. It actually forces the Phillies to limit his workload at a time when they might be tempted to push him. He has 3 starts in June and has combined to pitch 20 innings while allowing 4 runs. He continues to show good strike zone numbers with 18 k’s against 6 walks in those starts. I haven’t gotten any new reports on his offspeed stuff so he’s still a 5 star upside, 3 star downside pitcher. If his secondary stuff develops, he has a good chance of being a mid-rotation pitcher or better. With his impressive 73/15 K/BB ratio in 63.2 innings, a promotion to Clearwater is probably on the horizon.

3 Star Athletes

3. Jonathan Singleton, age 18, STOCK UP: This is the oversight I mentioned. As a 17 year old in rookie ball, Singleton showed great plate discipline with 18 walks and 13 strikeouts in 119 PA’s. The power was underwhelming (but not entirely absent) with just two homeruns and nine doubles. He ended up with a triple slash of .290/.395/.420 which is a nice debut.

The Phillies recently decided to challenge Singleton by assigning him to low A Lakewood. Unlike fellow youngster Domingo Santana, Singleton has absolutely dominated the level. In 32 games (137 PA) he’s mashed and bashed his way to a .405/.496/.698 line with seven bombs, 21 walks, and 24 strikeouts. His battering of the Sally League has earned him nearly daily mention in Kevin Goldstein’s Prospect Watch. The Phillies are usually aggressive with their prospects in the lower levels so continued dominance from Singleton might result in a late season promotion to Clearwater. Singleton is flashing a 5 star bat right now and I was tempted to file this under the 4 star category.

The Phillies have suffered through what has nearly been 5 straight shutouts. Were it not for a perfect game and Cameron Maybin’s antics afield, the Phillies could be in the midst of one of the worst 5 game losing streaks of history.

As bad as that sounds, it’s not like the offense is broken. There’s a lot of angles to approach illustrating that, I’m going to take the easiest and link you to some other articles:

-Bill Baer at Crashburn Alley advises patience while citing research from JC Bradbury (basically, slumps happen)

-Pat Andriola at THT Live wonders if we’re trying too hard to contextualize a random occurrence

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Some of you have noticed my post rate is way down. I’m in the midst of moving from Minnesota to D.C. I’ve also started writing for The Hardball Times Live. I’m excited about the opportunity to write about league wide activities. If you head over to the THT Live page you can find my articles about Buster Posey and Stephen Strasburg. The Carlos Santana profile will be published tomorrow. I will still be posting here as needed.

May has some of the better stuff in the Phillies system, but he’s a long way from harnessing it, as inconsistent and at times sloppy mechanics lead to widely varying velocity, break and command.  So far in the Florida State League, the 20-year-old has been putting it all together, sitting consistently in the low 90s while touching 94 mph, showcasing two much-improved secondary pitches in his curveball and change, all while striking out 39 in just 24 innings.  He’s walked 12 and hit a pair of batters, so the control is still shaky, but this has the potential for a major step forward.Back in March (really back in January) I put together a top 10 prospects list. As we know, the status of prospects is a fluid thing. I think things have changed enough that it’s time for an update.

The ranking system is pretty straight forward and is described below. All evaluations come with upside/downside projections and of course rely on the player remaining healthy. For this update, I’ll note any status changes from the previous list in a stock up/stock down format.

The ranking system:

• 5 star – Future All-Star/Elite talent.
• 4 star – MLB average to above average talents.  Players who will consistently put up between 2-4 WAR most healthy seasons.
• 3 star – MLB role players.  These guys may or may not be starters but they will usually be between .5-2.5 WAR per season.
• 2 star – Replacement level/Organizational soldier.  These guys will probably have fringe MLB talent and will struggle to become more than the 25th man on a roster.  Sometimes these guys are briefly useful and sometimes they fool everyone.
• 1 star – Really? is this ever going to show up on a top 10 list?  A 1 star athlete has no semblance of talent or projectability.  When a player is listed with 1 star downside, that means there is considerable risk of him being a complete bust.

5 Star Athletes:

1. Domonic Brown, age 22, STOCK UP: Brown remains King of the Hill by authoring a .347/.402/.607 triple slash with the Reading Phils to date. Scouts were just beginning to seriously worry that Brown’s power ceiling might be lower than they thought after popping only one homerun in April. He’s since allayed those fears by hitting 3 in the early part of May. There’s not much else to say about Brown, he’s dominating non-Strasburg pitcher’s in AA and it’s only a matter of time until he’s promoted to AAA. Brown still has 4 star downside.

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