Is this the end of the Utley we know and love?

Following up on an interesting article published a week ago by The Good Phight (http://www.thegoodphight.com/2010/9/2/1665092/as-chase-utley-goes), it made me ponder some of Utley’s ups and downs this past year. While some can be blamed on his injuries, he’s mysteriously taken a strikingly different approach at the plate this year, that’s limited his offensive production. His OBP is around his career average, but his slugging has dropped nearly 70 points from last year, wOBA is almost 40 points below his prime years, and his ISO is down 60 points from last year.

Is this the decline in Chase that we’ve been unfortunately expecting with his age/injury history? Or is it simply injuries taking their toll this year, with a bounceback 2011? Let’s look at the stats, shall we?

The advanced stats point to Utley’s sudden urge to swing out of the strikezone. As a result, he’s striking out less, and hitting more crap on the ground. While his 25.9% swing rate out of the zone isn’t terribly above his career average of 22.1%, his 76.9% contact percentage outside of the zone is 12.4% above his career norm. His swing rate at pitches in the zone is down, as well as his contact percentage in the zone since he’s swinging at junk.

It doesn’t help that’s all pitchers are throwing him, either. Only 44% of pitches he’s seen have been in the zone, a career low.

It’s quite possible that his lack of success is part of neverending cycle. The more crap you swing at, the more crap the pitcher throws. Utley’s lack of playing time this year and pressing during injuries all are viable opinions as to the sudden drop in production.

Put simply, he’s swinging and making contact with more crap.  More contact on those pitches = more groundballs, less strikeouts, less home runs/doubles/triples, less RBI, etc.  If and when Chase gets healthy, it’s hard to argue that he won’t return to the same Chutley approach that’s made him successful since filling Captain Big Head Placido Polanco’s shoes.

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