Archive for April, 2010

Ryan Howard has been taking a dump all over bad pitching 1 week into the season. What we’ve seen thus far has been a visual treat. The strike outs are down and the damage is waaaay up. The results have been devastating to opposing pitchers. He’s authored a 1.256 OPS on the back of a .469 ISO!!! and .360 BABIP. That’s all good for an unworldly .513 wOBA. For reference, Barry Bonds’ peak season featured a .546 wOBA. Howard even made the lefty shift look real foolish by smashing a line drive single where the SS is “supposed” to play.

It's the big yellow one (chart courtesy of texasleaguers.com)

Of course, anytime you analyze one week’s worth of data, the “small sample size” warning comes into play. That’s where scouting moves to the forefront. From watching the past 7 games, I’m comfortable saying that something is different, and dare I say it, improved? Might this have to do with the aforementioned Bonds? Our favorite Smash and Bash lefty met up with the surly Ruler of Roids over the offseason to work on his swing. Beyond moving closer to the plate to improve his plate coverage, his swing just looks better. It’s easy to see that he’s staying on the ball more this year than in the past.

So what’s been measurably different in this one week? You might be wondering about those large ISO and BABIP numbers I reported earlier. Howard’s previous peaks in both numbers came in his MVP season when he had a .346 ISO and .356 BABIP. That BABIP was matched in his RoY campaign (.354) and has since dropped to .328, .285, and .325 from ’07 through ’09. Let’s ignore all this for a moment though, after all, the argument here is that a change has occurred. A change in plate approach could explain higher than expected BABIPs and ISOs.

What’s the next thing to look at? Howard has seemed to be more patient hasn’t he? Thankfully we have great data for that. Below are graphs of his swinging strikes in this season and April of ’09.

As you can (or can’t) see, there’s not much difference in what Howard is swinging at. He’s still fishing for the ball below the strike zone and off the plate outside. The one large difference I notice is the prominence of low sliders in his 2009 chart. He has yet to face many pitchers with good sliders this season. Let’s head over to fangraphs to see what his plate discipline numbers tell us.

In way of a quick explanation, stats with a Z in front refer to “in the strike zone” and those with O are “outside the strike zone”.  Looking at this chart, a number of striking observations jump out. Howard is swinging at the same percentage of pitches in the zone and out of the zone as he always has. What has changed are his contact rates. He’s hitting almost everything he swings at in the strike zone and he doing more with pitches outside of the strike zone too. The result is he’s swinging and missing less than half as much as he used to. That’s just ridiculous.

Now to counterbalance that point, Howard has faced some pretty damn awful pitchers over the first 7 games with Roy Oswalt being the lone “good” pitcher faced. The teams in question have also been short on the LOOGYs that usually kill Howard in the late innings. Also, these numbers are ridiculous. So undoubtedly they will decline toward league and career norms as the season wears on and he runs into pitchers with better stuff.

Getting back to his ISO and BABIP, when you see a guy who hits the ball as hard as Howard does coupled with a strike out rate around 12%, .469 and .360 really aren’t all that preposterous. IF Howard can maintain something like these ridiculous contact rates, an ISO in the high 300′s and a BABIP north of .330 are not out of the question. And with those kind of numbers, Howard is going to be making tons of real and fantasy noise all throughout the season.

Going forward, we as fans should be looking at two things: is he actually better at making contact this year? and is he trading power for contact rate (and is the tradeoff worthwhile)?

So far so good for Howard and the Phillies, let’s hope they can beat the injury bug and stay hot.

Authors Note: I’d be very interested to see how Howard fared against the John Lannon’s, Craig Stammen’s, and Felipe Paulino’s of the world in the past. Maybe what we’re seeing is almost all bad pitching. That’s a hint for any guys from Fangraphs, THT, or elsewhere who stumble upon this humble analysis. Thanks to TexasLeaguers.com and Fangraphs.com for their great resources.

Ok, I couldn't find a picture of his soft cast...deal with it.

Injury expert Will Carroll does a nice regular piece called Under The Knife behind the paywall at BaseballProspectus.com. Carroll has access to numerous resources so yesterday I shot him an email trying to dig up new information on Rollins and Werth. Turns out the injury expert has nothing more in depth than I had.

By now, most of you probably know there is no new information. The Grade II calf strain was confirmed via MRI and the soft cast is a precaution. Calf strains of this nature typically take 4-8 weeks to heal, although a 3-4 week time table is still being suggested from many sources. I think the safe assumption is to expect him to take 4-5 weeks before getting back to baseball activities and another week of rehab and games before rejoining the Phillies..

The news on Werth is equally non-existent. Yesterday I speculated on PSD that Werth’s comments sounds like a hip flexor strain. Sure enough the Phillies announced that Werth had a strained hip flexor. These sorts of strains are very minor. If you’re playing an active sport like football or soccer, it’s something you can play through at 90% with minimal discomfort. In a stop and go game like baseball, it’s harder to keep the blood flowing and the muscle loose, making the injury more painful and disruptive. If the diagnosis is correct, it’s something that Werth is capable of playing through. Nevertheless, this is how cascading injuries occur, which is something the Phillies should be keen to avoid. I expect to see Werth back in the lineup by Friday at the very latest and he should be available for PH duties all week. Going forward, expect Werth to be spelled by Francisco every so often for a month or two.

There is of course the chance that he’s pulling a Chase Utley on us, but I think that’s very doubtful considering the time of year and his contract status. If this does turn out to be a larger problem, Ben Francisco can fill in ably. John Mayberry would likely join the team as the right-handed pinch hit threat.

The early injuries hurt, but it’s not yet time to panic folks. Things are getting pretty thin around here though…

_______

UPDATE: Rollins has been officially placed on the DL. Wilson Valdez will take his spot on the roster.

Ahhhh Mets fans. Never imitated, never duplicated, always delusional. As a Pro Sports Daily regular, I see a lot of ridiculous statements being thrown around by Mets fans. It is my self-appointed job to keep these crazies in check from time to time. The purpose of my post is to warn the loyal PLD readers of the asinine Mets fans that you may encounter. The subject will be the opinion of Mets fans on John Maine.

Clear out Mets fans, it's gonna get ugly.

Flashback to 2006: After the back-of-the-rotation prospect was traded to the Mets for Kris Benson and his wife, John Maine burst onto the scene, boasting a 6-5 record, with a 3.64 ERA, and 1.12 WHIP in 15 starts. Mets fans were poised to go into O.O. mode (Overrating Orgasm). The following posts were taken in a span from Spring 2007 to Spring 2008.

John Maine- 220 IP 3.1 ERA 218 Ks 1.2 WHIP and a record of 21-6

This is getting good…

17-8 3.25 ERA

This was in response to me asking how he was going to replicate his .223 BABIP from 2006. As you can see, he countered with a very sound argument. Moving right along…

Johan Santana-22-4 2.09 265 k’s 230 innings 33 GS
Pedro Martinez-17-8 2.82 210 k’s 190 innings 30 GS
John Maine-17-10 3.10 185 k’s 210 innings 31 GS
Oliver Perez-18-11 3.04 220 k’s 205 innings 32 GS
Orlando Hernandez 10-8 3.30 130 k’s 150 innings 21 GS

ALRIGHT HOLD UP. I realize the Maine focus (see what I did there?) of my post is not Orlando Hernandez, but HOLY HELL! I think it is worth mentioning that El Duque made his final big league appearance on September 30, 2007 (Yes, THAT memorable game), which happened six months before this post. That means he finished JUST 10 wins and 21 starts short of reaching this bold prediction!

Can anything stop our hero from a HoF career? Yes, reality.

The John Maine story takes a sad turn, after the jump…

One year ago today, Harry Kalas died in the booth an hour before a game between the Phillies and Nationals.

I was on my way to class at the University of Pittsburgh when I heard the news. It’s a rare thing for me to cry when I’m not alone, but I was unsuccessfully fighting off tears for the rest of the day. I’ve been fortunate enough that no family members who were particularly close to me have died in my lifetime, but the pain I felt at his loss was what I imagine it would be like. If you grew up listening to Harry call games every summer, as many of us did, you know exactly what I mean. We all knew he was getting on in years, and he’d started to slip just the slightest bit in his work. Little things, like mistaking a strike for a ball. Stumbling over a routine call. Not quite bringing the same energy that he had in years past. Still, nobody was ready to see him go.

Going to school a few hundred miles away, I rarely had the chance to enjoy his broadcasts over the last few years of his life. When he passed, I was only a few weeks away from graduating and returning to my parents’ house for the summer, while I tried to figure just what the hell I was going to do with the rest of my life. After the shock and the tears wore off, I kept coming back to a single thought: I wish I could have heard him call just one more game.

I was lucky enough to meet him in 2004. I was working at a hotel which hosted the Delco Times sports banquet, and he was at one of my tables. I tried to be professional, to be courteous, to let him eat his dinner in peace, and above all, to not screw anything up. The entire staff gravitated to him throughout the evening, eager for a chance to have a brief exchange with a legend. It would have been perfectly understandable if he had gotten a little annoyed.

He did not. He was warm and jovial with every person who interacted with him that night, be they fellow guests or hotel employees. I’ve been treated like a lower specimen by many normal people before, but not by Harry. He actively engaged me in conversation, and it wasn’t long before I got past being intimidated by my proximity to the voice of the Phillies and managed to not make a fool of myself.

There are hundreds of stories just like mine, of regular folks who met one of the greatest broadcasters in the history of sports, and came away with nothing but fond memories of a true gentleman.

Harry may not be calling games anymore. The team may not be wearing the black, circular HK patch in his honor this season. But generations of Phillies faithful will always hold him close to their hearts.

Harry Kalas, you were the man.

Runs? Where we're going, we don't need runs.

The Phillies scored 41 runs in the first five games. Much as we’d all like it to, that sort of torrid pace won’t last, and today was easily the worst showing of this young season for the lineup. Jimmy led off with a homer, Chooch brought home a run on a groundout in the second, and that was it.

They picked a good time to sputter a bit, though, considering Doc was on the mound. He was his usual awesome self, allowing only an unearned run in what should be the first of many complete games of his Phillies career. 111 pitches, 83 for strikes; eight strikeouts, no walks, seven singles. Between the sixth and seventh innings, he had five runners on with no outs, and allowed just one to score. I hesitate to use the word “clutch” because it’s so horribly applied by most people, but that’s mighty impressive. No runner reached second base in any other inning, and the Zombie Phillies Astros got a well-deserved bromming. They’re 0-6 for the first time since 1983.

So, the Phils are off to their best start since 1993, and on the road, no less; but for a bad inning by Kyle Kendrick, they’d be undefeated. Nobody’s within 10 runs of their MLB-leading plus-25 run differential. With another series against the lowly Nats beginning tomorrow with the home opener (which certain bloggers will be tailgating), the good times figure to keep on rolling.

Speaking of the Nats, they just took two of three from the Mets, beating Johan Santana this afternoon. If the Flyers can pull out a win against the Rangers, we can leave New York even more demoralized. Here’s hoping, even though the Flyers kind of suck and have no shot at doing anything in the playoffs.

Who really cares, though? It’s baseball season, and the Phillies are off to a great start for a change. As bad as the Nats and Astros are, we should still be enjoying the utter dominance our team is exerting in the early going.

We play the Mets for the first time at the end of the month. Things keep going the way they are, we might have a double digit lead on them by the end of that series. Not that they’re in any way a threat to us. It’s just fun to see Mets fans’ dreams crushed over and over again.

I’ve just about had it. The Cliff Lee deal has been lambasted by thousands of fans, ESPN analysts, bloggers, Curt Schilling, and now Jimmy Rollins. Everyone acts like Ruben has silently hidden from the media when questioned over this. In reality, he’s probably one hundred times more frustrated than I am about the repeated criticism. Let’s break down what happened again so we can see the logic.

• Phillies trade 3 advanced prospects (and highly touted Jason Knapp) for Cliff Lee
• Phillies determine they can’t sign Cliff Lee to the kind of contract they want
• Phillies determine they CAN sign Halladay to that kind of deal
• Phillies consider trading 3 advanced prospects for Roy Halladay
• Phillies realize that would leave them with 1 advanced prospect
• Phillies need advanced prospects to be competitive in 2011 and beyond
• Phillies decide to use Cliff Lee to add 3 advanced prospects

Does everyone follow the logic? The Phillies wanted to lock up an ace to pitch in front of Cole Hamels. Cliff Lee was not that guy. Roy Halladay was. And as we saw in the payroll series, the Phillies are desperate for cost controlled talent. If you add high priced veterans to an utter dearth of advanced prospects, what you get is the Cubs or Mets. Does any fan want to watch the Phillies turn into the Cubs or Mets? I didn’t think so.

Let’s take this from Ruben’s perspective. Most fans seem to think that the General Manager’s job is to put together the best roster possible. That’s not exactly correct. A GM’s job is to make the ballclub money. The biggest weapon in the GM’s arsenal is the MLB roster. The better the roster, the more money people are willing to pay to see it play. So it is in Amaro’s best interest to field a team today that is likely to compete in the playoffs. Today’s Phillies roster is such a team, even without Cliff Lee.

Ruben also needs to worry about future revenues. Looking at what the Phillies have on paper, they MUST find some cost controlled all-star talent or else they risk being surpassed by the Braves. And as friendly as the fans are today, how long do you think they will financially support a .500ish ballclub? I’m setting the over/under at 50 games. With only Dom Brown, Kyle Kendrick, Antonio Bastardo, Drew Carpenter, and Scott Mathieson as plausible minor league contributors, it’s obvious more talent was needed. Especially since four of those names are rather fringy.

With every passing day, I’m happier with the haul we got from the Lee deal. The injuries Lee’s suffered couldn’t entirely be predicted, but he’s never been the picture of health. Tyson Gillies appears to be a very exciting player in the Shane Victorino mold. Aumont and Ramirez should both factor in at the ML level, whether or not they’re back of the rotation types or front of the bullpen fixtures is still up for interpretation. We also got $8 mil of payroll flexibility. For all that we lost 1 season of Cliff Lee and (probably) a late first and supplemental first round pick.

Cliff Lee, like it or not, was expendable. The Phillies should enjoy the same level of success in the regular season without him. Sure, they may take a 5% hit per round to their playoff chances, but if that’s the price for a competitive roster in 2011, 2012, and beyond, then I’ll take it.

Struggling not to make a Tiger Woods joke...

MLB Trade Rumors has an interesting post up this afternoon. The premise is simple: If each MLB team had the chance to erase a single contract from their books, which one would it be? There aren’t too many surprises on the list – guys like Vernon Wells (five years, $98.5 million), Jeff Suppan ($14.5 million), and Alfonso Soriano (five years, $90 million) are routinely cited as having some of the worst contracts in the game – but it got me thinking about which contract the Phillies would take a mulligan on, if given the opportunity.

The obvious choice, and MLBTR’s, is Brad Lidge’s deal. He’s due $11.5 million this season and next, and holds a 2012 option for $12.5 million that will almost certainly be bought out for $1.5 million. I may have been the only person on the planet who hated this contract the second it was signed. I understand the motivation behind it – Lidge was in the midst of his perfect ’08 and would be a free agent at year’s end – but paying a reliever an eight-figure salary is almost always a bad idea. There’s so much potential for high variance in such a small sample size, and even the best relief performances are diminished in overall value due to the limited number of innings a reliever can pitch. In the eight seasons WAR has been calculated (since 2002), only 12 closers have been worth three wins or more in a season: Eric Gagne (three times), Robb Nen, John Smoltz, Francisco Rodriguez (twice), B.J. Ryan, Francisco Cordero, Joe Nathan (twice), Mariano Rivera (twice), Lidge (in 2004, believe it or not), J.J. Putz, Takashi Saito, and Jonathan Papelbon (twice). Using WAR for pitchers is less than optimal, but it gets the point across.

Anyway, Lidge is the clear winner of this dubious honor. The only other contract that even comes close to having an argument is Raul Ibanez’s deal. Like Lidge, he’s owed $11.5 million this season and next. With his advanced age, recent injury concerns, and horribly shortsighted no-trade protection, even last season’s monster first half only goes so far in easing the sting of that contract. I suppose you could throw Jamie Moyer in there as well, but his deal doesn’t carry the same negative consequences going forward as the Lidge or Ibanez contracts, since it expires after this season.

Is it painfully obvious that I’m just killing time until today’s game starts?

So Fungoed.

Ryan Madson loves to hit. How do I know? Because Shane Victorino fucking told me so. So I was thrilled when I got to see my close and personal friend step into the box in the ninth inning of tonight’s game against the Nats while in the middle of a four out save. How’d he do at the plate? Well… not nearly as well as he did on the mound. Madson struck out to end the inning with two men in scoring position.

More importantly, Madson got his and the Phillies’ first save of the season recording four outs, two singles, and two Ks all in just thirteen pitches.

Oh, and Polanco crossed the plate three times, Howard homered again, and Hamels got the win while raising my blood pressure. That’s about as much of a game recap as you’ll ever get out of me.

Brief Programming Note: There’s a new entry to the incredibly exclusive club that is Philadelphia Phillies blogs. Go check out Chicks Dig the Long Ball, they already have a ton of content and I know there’s way more on the way.

Suck It, Jackass

I’ve decided to take it upon myself to have a running tally of home runs for everyone’s favorite wife-beater redneck.  You know, just because I can.

6 innings, 12 hits, 4 runs, 1 HR

Enjoy your time with Ed Wade and his ragtag team of former Phillies.  Jackass.

The Mets suffered several injuries in the raid

Ruben and the Phillies finally went and did something that I thought they had forgotten they could do, they used the waiver wire. What with Ross Gload, Juan Castro, and Drew Carpenter polluting the roster (among others), a roster move of this sort has been long overdue. I’m thrilled it happened.

I’m not so thrilled with the bounty though. Nelson Figueroa is a 35 year old, mediocre pitcher. Better options have been seemingly available like Chad Gaudin. Figueroa is likely to take the equally mediocre Drew Carpenter’s spot on the team, providing garbage innings and an arm to throw at opposing teams should more of the ‘quality’ starters get hurt. His presence on the team is likely to be brief. As Blanton, Romero, and Lidge return to the team, three of Figueroa, Bastardo, Kendrick, and Herndon have to go elsewhere. All three alternatives are better than Figgy.

In the short run, this is a fine move, it gives the Phils more depth at SP while Blanton is out. It’s a nifty little use of the 25th spot on the roster. Now Ruben has to keep his eyes open for something tastier.