Archive for April, 2010

As loyal readers, you may recall that I wrote a series of posts aimed at objectively evaluating Ruben Amaro’s performance as general manager. My conclusion was that despite his occasional moments of brilliance, Amaro is decidedly average at his job.

I was wrong. Ruben Amaro, Jr. is one of the worst GMs in the game, and the sooner he’s fired, the better. Read the rest of this entry »

Just my two cents, now that we’ve officially fallen behind the Mets by .5 games in the division. EVERYBODY PANIC.

/sarcasm

My reaction can be found here.

Not yet, at least.

As of April 26th, the 2009 Phillies were 9-8 (.529) and had lost two out of four series while splitting one with Washington. They scored 98 runs in that span of time, allowing 96 for a run differential of +2. That team went on to win the National League pennant.

As of April 26th, the 2008 Phillies were 14-11 (.560). They’d scored 123 runs and allowing 109 over the course of 25 games, a differential of +14. They won four series, lost two, and split a two-gamer. That team went on to become the World Fuckin’ Champions.

As of April 26th, 2010 the current iteration of the Phillies are 11-7 (.611). The Fightins have scored 104 runs and allowed 73 (+31). They’ve won four series and lost two.

I’m not saying I buy into the adage that “The Phillies are slow starters.” I’m just reminding you:

Don’t Panic.

In what should have been an utter thrashing of a series, the Phillies managed just 13 runs against three of the worst starting pitchers in baseball (OK maybe Kennedy isn’t that bad) and one of the worst bullpen units. I was worried the D-Backs would get to Hamels and they did, but I never suspected that Benson would put up a reasonably decent start. I’m dumbfounded as to how that happened, but then again, Livan Hernandez hasn’t allowed an earned run yet so there’s plenty of room for blind squirrels and nut finding in the first month of the season. The second game didn’t go according to plan either. Figueroa battled through 5 innings to give the Phillies exactly what they needed from him. Ian Kennedy had a strong start for AZ, but the Phillies managed to outlast them. The final game more closely resembled what I expected from the series, with the Phillies and Diamondbacks trading blows until a victor emerged.

I have just a few observations to make. The Phillies are awfully thin at SS right now with Castro banged up. Valdez really isn’t a serviceable defender. Somehow the duo of Valdez/Castro has provided nearly league average offense since Rollins hit the DL. Both are poor hitters so every little bit of production we get from them is a blessing.

Howard does not seem comfortable at the plate right now. The observations I made about Howard earlier in the year have held true, his K% is nearly half his career rate at 17.5%(32.2% average). However, his ISO is down to .200 from a .304 average (and .292 the last two seasons) and his walk percent has crumpled to 3.6% after averaging 12.7% on his career. The current product has been a slightly below average hitter. The real problem is easy to see in his plate discipline data. He’s swinging at more pitches outside of the zone (35% compared to 26% career) than he ever has and he’s hitting way more of them (56% compared to 40% career) than ever before. He’s also hitting a whopping 91% of pitches in the strike zone compared to a career rate of 79%. If Howard can cut down on the bad pitches he’s swinging at, he should see his ISO jump. His walk rate will climb too, but so long as he’s connecting on practically everything that crosses the plate, he’ll have trouble getting it back above 10%. Howard seems to have made a real change to how he hits, there’s libel to be growing pains involved, but I’m hopeful he can improve his strike zone discipline back to career norms and turn this change into a net positive.

Chase Utley just doesn’t seem to be getting pitches. It’s possible scouts have noted Howard’s new approach and don’t fear him as much as they used to. That seems foolish to me, but as it stands Utley is walking 19% of the time. As long as Howard and Werth keep playing well, this is a good thing.

Our hobbled rotation seems to be doing alright. It looks like Figgy has positioned himself to take over Kendrick’s role on the team once Blanton returns. Speaking of Blanton, he threw 3 IP on Friday allowing 4 hits and a walk. I had to look the line up on Milb.com. I assume no news is good news here. He should be making his third and final rehab start on tuesday or wednesday and will be probably throwing about 75-80 pitches. I expect him back on the roster sometime towards the end of the weekend or the beginning of next week. It’ll be interesting to see who’s cut.

Today brings the first series preview piece of the 2010 season here at PLD. We plan on making this a regular feature so please give any relevant feedback. And before anyone points out the typo in the title (it’s pronounced like ‘Brahms’), it was an intentional allusion to our friends and frequent visitors at the ProSportsDaily Phillies forum.

After recovering from a heartbreaking loss to the Braves on Tuesday night, the Phillies regrouped around Field General Roy Halladay and took the series while stifling the Braves offense. Now they take their two game win streak to Arizona where the hitting friendly confines of Chase Field await along with an even friendlier array of re-tread pitching.

Friday Night: 9:40 PM

Cole Hamels vs. Kris Benson

Cole Hamels represents the lone “good” starting pitcher of the series. However, we know he can be a little prone to the long ball and Chase Field can only make matters worse. The Phillies and their fans will be hoping that Cole brings the stuff he used to shutdown the Braves. It’s tough to predict how the Diamondbacks will fare against Hamels. They have plenty of power in the lineup, but they also feature several players led by long ball threat Mark Reynolds who are among the league leaders at the swing and miss. If Hamels can stay aggressive, he might have a lot of success against this lineup, but don’t be surprised if things suddenly get ugly.

The Phillies for their part should massacre Kris Benson. Despite a seemingly solid start against the Padres, Benson struck out only 1 while allowing 6 hits (including a home run) and walking 4. Scouts lambasted his outing, calling his stuff mediocre at best. Internet pundits are wondering aloud when Billy Buckner will take Benson’s turn in the rotation. The Phillies stable of patient and powerful hitters should be able to outlast Benson’s mediocre stuff and pile on oodles of runs. If Benson can get through 5 IP without surrendering 6 or more runs, I’ll be absolutely amazed.

Saturday Night: 9:10 PM

Nelson Figueroa vs Ian Kennedy

Last week, I suggested the Phillies try Figueroa in Kendrick’s spot in the rotation. An injury to JA Happ took that idea off the table (and a no run, 8 IP effort from KK bought him another game’s worth of breathing room). Now the guy Chris Coste called the second best starter at Mets Spring Training gets his turn in the Phillies rotation. It’s tough to figure what Figgy will bring to the table, but he seems to be pitching well with his mediocre stuff. This one has the potential to get real ugly folks but Nelson has a decent enough chance to skate through 5-6 adequate innings.

After my predicted trouncing of Benson in game 1, the Phillies face a pitcher who’s better than his numbers indicate. Ian Kennedy has decent enough stuff to pitch in the middle of an NL rotation and occasionally silence good lineups. He’s going to have a lot of problems with Utley, Howard, Werth, Ibanez, but the rest of the lineup is banged up enough that he might be able to pitch around those guys and squeeze through a quality start. A couple mistakes to the wrong players and his night could get real short, real fast. After my predicted slaughter of Benson, the DBacks are going to be leaning heavily on Kennedy to get them at least through the 7th. This should work in the Phillies advantage and could manifest in another slug-fest.

Sunday Night: 5:10 PM      (Yes I call 5:10 ‘night time’)

Kyle Kendrick vs Rodrigo Lopez

I mentioned the Saturday night game could get ugly right? This one’s bound to be a mess. Kendrick and his inability to miss bats matches up terribly with a team that’s all power when they happen to run into the ball. I’m not sure what else there is to say about it. The Diamondbacks offense looks much better than the anemic Braves unit, so we could see a repeat of Kendrick’s two outings against the Nationals. Thankfully…

We could see a repeat of Kendrick’s two outings against the Nationals. Rodrigo Lopez is yet another baaaad pitcher. This year he’s throwing way fewer fastballs than last, but all four of his offerings are worse than mediocre. Again, I expect to see the Phillies patiently out wait the inferior pitcher and tee off on mistakes. However, if anyone is going to pull a Tim Reading (or more recently Nate Robertson) and shut down the Phillies offense with bad stuff, it’s going to be Lopez.

This should be an entertaining, if not potentially frustrating, series to watch.

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On the injury front, Jimmy is taking BP left handed and continuing to recover quickly. It appears like he’ll be set to return about a week after he’s eligible to come off the DL, which is a week before the super optimistic timetable suggested. At this point, I’m wondering if the strain really was a grade 2 because he should not be this far along yet.

JA Happ’s injury (a strained forearm), is considered very minor. He’s expected to be activated from the DL as soon as he’s eligible. This has a chance to linger all season so let’s hope it heals up nice and clean now. If it lingers, it’s something he’ll probably work through with occasional skipped starts.

Joe Blanton makes his second rehab appearance today. I’m sure Phillies.com will have something available on the outcome. The important thing is that he doesn’t feel his oblique.

UPDATE:

It sounds as though the injury to JA Happ might be more serious than originally supposed. This from injury expert Will Carroll:

The Phillies don’t think that Happ will be out that long, but Ruben Amaro Jr.’s quote of “weeks, not months” leaves a lot of wiggle room. The quotes that David Murphy got in this notebook show that this is more than just a simple strain or at least the Phillies are treating it that way. Happ’s elbow is at risk here, so he will go through a full strengthening program over the next couple weeks, which makes it unlikely we’ll see him on a rehab assignment until the middle of next month. Missing weeks instead of months is certainly preferable, and catching the problem here, prior to having the stress transferred to the ligaments, is also a good sign. There’s a reason the Phillies took home the Dick Martin trophy last year. Nelson Figueroawill make a spot start in place of Happ, but with Joe Blanton close to a return, it shouldn’t affect the pen too much.

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Every once and awhile we’re reminded of the dark episode from recent past that still haunts the MLB. Today we’re likely to witness 2010′s first player suspension for PEDs. Will Carroll of Baseball Prospectus broke the story late last night/early today. So far, sources have leaked that a player unsuccessfully appealed testing and a decision to suspend him has been reached. The player is a pitcher and the drug of choice was NOT amphetamines. That’s all we know right now. The announcement is expected today, but could be delayed.

Keep your eyes and ears open. When this happens it will be all over ESPN. Unless it’s a Phillie, NL East rival, or major player of note, you won’t be getting any further reactions from me. But do stop back for some fun and games in the coming days.

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UPDATE:

The man of the hour is Edinson Volquez. Word on the street is the substance is similar to the one used by Manny. I’ll leave my personal opinions of PED users for another day and focus on a rumor I’ve seen in a couple different outlets: Volquez’ suspension is set to begin immediately.

Yep, despite being on the 60 day DL until sometime between late July and early September, it’s rumored that Volquez’ suspension will run concurrent with his rehab stint and will be over long before he is set to return to action. If true, I’m not sure anyone can claim this makes sense. I’ll be out looking for more concrete information in this regard and I’ll let you know when I find it.

In the meantime, assuming it is true, rest assured that public backlash will see to it that Volquez is the only one to benefit from this asinine policy. A PED suspension is supposed to do several things. It’s supposed to take 50 days of availability away from the team. The team is compensated for this by not having to pay the player over this period (Volquez makes a “measly” $445,000). The player also loses 50 days of service time and gets considerable negative publicity. In this case, the club is not being punished at all and Volquez will hardly be affected in the short term. I’ll comment on long term effects when I update the veracity of this rumored suspension rule.

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Update #2:

It appears that Volquez will be eligible to return from suspension on June 15. He claims that the drug he used was prescribed by a Dominican doctor to “help him make a family”. Volquez will lose 50 games of his salary which works out to a little bit under $140,000. Long term, he loses 50 days of service time which will affect future contract negotiations. Whether or not testing positive affects his future bargaining position beyond that depends on how well he pitches when he returns. He will probably earn less money than he could via arbitration.

Word on the street is that JA Happ is getting skipped over for his next scheduled start. Will Carroll has this to say on the subject in his regular Under The Knife column:

Whether or not you believe in/there’s evidence for the Verducci Effect, there is definitely something to the “playoff hangover.” (Then again, without a study on this in place, I guess the nitpickers will be in comments telling me I’m wrong.) Happ is an interesting case, in that he was shifted to the pen for the playoffs and therefore, would be under slightly less stress than someone like Cole Hamels, who has done it two offseasons in a row. Or is it? We know there’s a multiplier somewhere, a sliding scale that would tell us how much stress a pitcher is under in various relief situations. Happ’s early-season struggles might be explained by this, but until there’s more evidence, it’s best to keep looking while noting this “hangover.” Happ will throw on the side Monday and a determination on the DL will be made after that. Sources tell me that the Phillies really don’t know, but with Joe Blanton still a bit off, this injury stack has the chance to throw the staff off. What might save them is the presence of Roy Halladay and the schedule. BP’s Tommy Bennett took a look at the schedule and thinks the Phils will only need a 5-slot guy once in the next two weeks. Blanton should be back by then, if not Happ.

This is bad news bears fellas (and ladies). With Blanton coming back around May 3rd, a DL stint from Happ is something the Phillies can to swallow, but it definitely puts the pressure on them to scrounge up more starting pitching. I think the case to get Figueroa some starts has now become too obvious and pressing to be ignored. We’ll see what Charlie and friends do in the coming days, I’ve heard no formal announcement on tomorrow’s starter although the Phils site lists Kendrick. I’m still hopeful they’ll see the light.

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In another injury related note, Will Carroll is hearing that Jimmy Rollins’ calf may be healing faster than expected. At least that’s what Jimmy is telling the trainers. We’ll see if that moves his estimated return date up from the mid-range 6 weeks to the optimistic 4 week estimate most news sources have been reporting.

What to do about Kyle Kendrick? The short answer? Demote him.

In two starts against the Nationals, Kendrick has incinerated faster than a protesting Buddhist monk. There’s no need to dig into the gory details, Kendrick has pitched poorly. With KK’s already exceedingly fungible talent level, two bad starts like this are enough to oust him from the starting five, possibly for good. Like forever-ever.

What do the Phillies do about his turn in the rotation? For now they can afford to stand pat. Kendrick’s usual turn to play on the hill just so happens to fall on an off day. So perfect world scenario, they skip that start and activate Joe Blanton for the next one. That’s relatively pain free from a roster stand point and with Blanton’s rehab progressing smoothly, he could very well be ready to spin 5 frames by the 24th. If he’s not ready, recent waiver grab Nelson Figueroa is capable of providing adequate starts.

But there’s a thorn in my always impeccable logic. The above idea is sound, there’s no doubt of that. Skip Kendrick and either activate Blanton or use Figueroa. But it begs the question, why is Kendrick still on the roster? It could only mean three things: they either intend to NOT skip his start, they intend to leave him in the bullpen, or they simply haven’t thought it over enough to be ready to make a roster move.

If either of the first two options are the answer, this is yet another example of the dangerous ‘trust’ that Charlie places in marginal athletes. From a statistical analysis standpoint, KK is an adequate SP despite his Nats-aided immolation early on. However, while statistical analysis is a great way to approach this problem in the off-season, there’s something to be said for going with the hot hand. Especially when you’re talking about which 6th starting pitcher to toss out there. Figueroa has certainly performed better thus far, Chris Coste even endorsed him as the 2nd best pitcher on the Mets Spring Training roster. Kendrick has flopped, he has no track record of success, and he has options so there’s no reason to stick with him.

However, the third option, that we don’t know who to activate,  is certainly plausible. There isn’t a single pitcher in Lehigh worth rostering over Kendrick. Detritus like Brandon Duckworth, Mike Zagurski, and John Ennis are eminently ignorable. Drew Carpenter has struggled in the early going and Scott Mathieson is not yet ready for promotion. Personally, I’d activate John Mayberry Jr or Quentin Berry for a few days, but perhaps the Phils want the extra pitcher lounging in the pen for extra-super-serious mop up duties.

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On a related topic, I’m seeing a lot of people discussing Pedro Martinez, Jarrod Washburn, and various guys rumored to be traded. With Blanton returning shortly, such talks are probably premature. However, if Moyer struggles again, it might be worth examining our options more closely.

That said, the two most popular targets of fan desire seem to be Pedro and Washburn. Neither player is in a rush to sign. Pedro is waiting to find a club that needs his services AND is a near lock to reach the post-season. He probably has a strong preference for a team that will almost certainly use him in the playoffs. The Phillies fit that bill, but Pedro gains nothing but signing hastily.

Washburn on the other hand is rumored to be holding out for a second guaranteed year. With Boras on his side, I doubt Washburn softens that particular demand until around the All Star break. As we saw in my payroll series, the Phillies don’t have the resources to guarantee Washburn a second year.

Ultimately I don’t expect either player to sign anytime soon.

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Random stat: prior to editing, ‘certainly’ appeared in this post 7 times. I need to work on that. Any other critiques of my work are more than welcome.