Archive for March, 2010

Time for part two in my WAR prediction series, up this time: Bullpen. Relief pitchers are very hard to predict anything about, each year someone can be amazing and then be complete trash the next. But I am going to do my best to give it a shot. So follow me after the jump for the predictions…

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VOTE OR DIE!

Check out the bracket, and follow @ThePhield on Twitter.

(Song Credit: Turbonegro – All My Friends Are Dead)

Whew, boy. This one is actually pretty tame by Conlin’s standards, but that still makes it one of the worst articles I’ve read in a while. The article is entitled “Why Phillies are looking at 98 wins.” Not an outlandish prediction, but maybe a little optimistic. Unfortunately, the rest of the column is full of vintage Conlin craziness.

In 1993, I sensed a special set of intangibles in the crazies that GM Lee Thomas turned over to manager Jim Fregosi. Coming off a dead-last finish in 1992, picking the reinforced cast of baseball’s “Animal House” to win the pennant was more than a little risky; it was nuts. But I did and the Phillies jumped out to a huge lead, hung on for the East title, then took out the favored Braves in six.

Mystery solved.

Now, I’ll give the man credit for this much: He freely admits that predicting the pennant in ’93 was certifiably insane. Of course, he’s mentioning this to lend credence to his supposed prognostication prowess, so it still makes no sense at all. Especially since he claims to have divined this result via Spidey Sense or whatever, rather than something crazy, like facts and objective evidence.

Charlie Manuel never held out during a six-season major league baseball career that spanned 432 plate appearances and yielded a .198 career batting average. He held on like a remora to a shark’s underbelly.

Charlie should bring this up at his next contract negotiation. The ability to hold on like a remora is, like, 99 percent of what makes a good manager.

The big redhead went to Japan and finally learned to hit. He became the most popular “Gaijin” to ever play there. He even challenged the sacred single-season home-run record of Sadaharu Oh. By the time he climbed the minor league managing ladder and became the Cleveland Indians’ batting coach, then manager, he had become the Will Rogers of hitting, a folksy master of homespun malapropisms who never met a hitting man he didn’t like.

And that is why the Phillies will win 98 games this year.

Ruben Amaro Jr. had a similar if more privileged baseball upbringing. He was born to baseball royalty. His grandfather, Santos Amaro, is enshrined in the Cuban and Mexican halls of fame. Santos would have been a candidate for Cooperstown, as well, had his Cuban skin been a few shades lighter. Ruben’s father of the same name had hands so soft during his major league career with the Phillies and Cardinals you would have entrusted him with catching an infant dropped from the sixth floor of a burning building. Junior was an All-America outfielder at Stanford. He had been a ball-rat from Day 1. Ruben’s big-league career was a scuffle. He played eight seasons, five of them here, batted .235 and learned his front-office skills from a variety of eminent professors in the College of Base Knocks, including Pat Gillick.

Ruben Amaro’s grandfather is a Hall of Famer in other countries. His father had soft hands, presumably because he moisturized. Amaro himself played baseball, though he was pretty crappy at it, and went on to earn an Associate’s Degree in General Management from the esteemed Base Knocks University in Hoboken, N.J. (Go Whitefish!). All of these things are more relevant to the Phillies’ success than Roy Halladay, Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Cole Hamels, or anyone else who will put on a uniform and take the field for them in 2010.

It is not easy to find a major league ballclub that has a GM and manager who held on instead of holding out. And rarer still to find one where two advisers to the GM, Charley Kerfeld and Dallas Green, are pups from that same loving-the-game litter. Manuel . . . Amaro . . . Green . . . Kerfeld. They are four reasons why the best team in Phillies history will duck the complacency bullet and should win as many as 98 games.

Manuel went to Japan because he couldn’t hit here. Amaro retired after seven seasons because he couldn’t hit at all. How is that “holding on”? What does “holding out” mean in this context? What does any of this paragraph mean?

Conlin predicts a fourth straight division title, third straight pennant, and a seven-game victory in the World Series over the Red Sox. This is a rather plausible series of events, but here’s how he justifies it:

The Yankees have lost a lot of late-inning clutch work with the sayonara to Hideki Matsui, the World Series MVP, and the seeya to run-producer Johnny Damon.

The Yankees replaced Matsui with Nick Johnson and Damon with Curtis Granderson. Yes, Johnson is as brittle as a Mets fan’s ego and Granderson is Mr. Magoo against lefties, but overall, those are probable upgrades. They also added Javier Vazquez to the rotation. I’ve actually got the Yankees missing the playoffs, but that’s because I am a closet Rays fan, and I’m anticipating a lot of injury and regression for the Yankees next season, because they are old as balls at a lot of positions. This is a much better argument than losing “clutch work.”

Conlin finally starts talking about players in the National League about three-quarters of the way into the article, and none of his observations are particularly egregious. Still, he manages to spend nearly a thousand words making a case for the Phillies winning 98 games and a second championship in three seasons without mentioning Utley, Halladay, or Howard once.

Ladies and gentleman: This man has a Hall of Fame vote.

Moyer, mulling over changes to his AARP member benefits

Last update I cited comments from Rich Dubee saying Kyle Kendrick would have to take the 5th starters job from Moyer.  Moyer is not helping his case after getting lit up in a ‘B’ game. It’s impossible to find meaning in spring training statistics because there are too many bad players in camp or vets working on things. Moyer especially is known to work on things like throwing only cutters or changeups. That said, Moyer has yet to appear in Grapefruit League action while KK has compiled 9 scoreless frames on 4 hits, 0 bb’s, and 2 k’s.  Neither candidate is a very attractive choice for the rotation, but it’s very possible that Kendrick would be the more consistent option.  As long as he limits walks, he could have decent success in the Joel Pineiro/Most-Twins-Pitchers vein.  I still expect Moyer to start the season in the rotation regardless of how both he and KK do this March.  Just don’t be surprised if Moyer has a short leash.

Drew Carpenter’s micro-sample looks tantalizing with 8 IP, 5H, 1BB, 1R, and 9K.  Scouts complain about his across the body motion, suspect control, and mediocre secondary offerings, but I’m reminded a little of another dimmed prospect who our evaluators pretty much gave up on.  I’ve advocated him as a potential #5 pitcher all off season after he succeeded against AAA hitters last season. A team deeper in SP would convert him to the pen now, but I think he’s probably more useful to us if we keep him stretched out.

The Phillies cut a number of players from camp recently.  Most notable are potential 5th OF Quintin Berry, the Cliff Lee trio, and Scott Mathieson.  Berry was never a candidate for a bench spot this spring and the trio all still have plenty of work to do on the farm.  Mathieson is a little more surprising, but it makes perfect sense.  He’s lost a lot of developmental time to injury and has never had great secondary stuff.  He will head back to minor league camp and AAA to work on his control and repertoire.  The Phillies will look to add him to the ML roster when his stuff dictates it.

Finally, on the relief front, Brad Lidge is confident he will make opening day, but J.C. Romero is set to join the club 7-10 days after the start of the season.  That makes the current opening day bullpen Lidge, Ryan Madson, Antonio Bastardo, Danys Baez, Jose Contreras, and Chad Durbin.  The Phillies still have Mike Zagurski, Sergio Escalona, and Rule V pick David Herndon in camp.  I wouldn’t be surprised if Kendrick or Carpenter went north with the team as the temporary mop-up man while Romero recovers.  My guess is they will choose between Escalona and Zagurski so as to carry two lefties. They could also opt to break camp with another bench player, probably John Mayberry Jr. who’s having a fine camp or 34 year old Cody Ransom, who, despite a despicable glove, would actually probably be an improvement to Juan Castro.

This was Verlander’s reaction. Brown took a 3-2 pitch from Verlander and absolutely crushed it. The ball went out of the stadium and reportedly hit Chris Wheeler’s Prius. OK, maybe it didn’t hit Wheels’ car but we can pretend.

Have you ever seen a grown man naked?

In this post, I pay tribute to Peter Graves, actor extraordinaire, Mr. Mission Impossible and Mr. Airplane! all rolled into one.

Well… and I get to make an ass out of the Mets.

RIP

And don’t worry, I plan on creating an MS Paint masterpiece today, to possibly replace this homoeroticism we have going on up top.

Finally, a movie about Kate Beckinsale wearing a vinyl suit! Wait, what? That's not the plot of Underworld?

This article is only about projections, not curvy women, Kate Beckinsale, or vampires.  I thought I should make that perfectly clear so as not to let anyone down.

My original intro post (which I deleted because it sucked) had some definitions of basic concepts that are easily overlooked when people present advanced statistics.  One of those is the purpose, intent, and interpretation of projection systems.  For the purpose of this article, a projection system is any scientific attempt to estimate future performance using past statistics.  Some commonly referenced systems include CHONE, Marcels, Oliver, ZiPS, and PECOTA.

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Fuck the Mets! OH YEAHHHHH!

Seth is a real American hero. Not only is he an EMT keeping my ass safe in York, PA but also one hardcore sum’bitch when it comes to our Phils. Cut the dude and I’m pretty sure he’ll bleed in red pinstripes.

Out drinking Saturday night in Hershey, some Mets fan had the audacity to enter the same bar as our hero. Being the righteous Philadelphia sports fan he is, Seth was honor bound to go bust some balls. Decked in his finest throwback tee, Seth cut down the lowly Met fan with the same precision he uses to suture stab wounds on crack dealers in York.

After laying the verbal smackdown on the orange-wearing interloper, Seth brags of his accomplishment on Twitter:

I saw a Mets fan at the bar. I promply walked to him and said “fuck you sir”. Mission accomplished!!!!

When I issued the challenge “Video or it didn’t happen,” Seth came through and delivered big with this gem. Keep in mind, he already told the dude to fuck off, this is him going back WITH A CAMERA for more. Video after the jump…

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So much for a lazy Sunday. ESPN’s Buster Olney just dropped a goddamned bomb.

It’s the sort of thing that is much more likely to happen in fantasy baseball than in real life, but according to sources, an idea has been kicked around the Phillies’ organization internally, with discussions about proposing a swap of slugger Ryan Howard for St. Louis superstar Albert Pujols.

!!!!!!!!!!

It’s not fully clear whether the Phillies actually have approached the Cardinals with the idea, and even if St. Louis were to seriously consider such an offer, executives with the Cardinals would have to swallow very hard before dealing Pujols, a player widely regarded as the best in the sport. Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro flatly denied that the internal discussions have taken place. “Lies,” he said. “That’s a lie. I don’t know who you’re talking to, but that’s a lie.”

Ruben’s denial, of course, tells us absolutely nothing. GMs are never honest or candid with the media about personnel decisions, at least, not successful ones. And while Olney’s article comes with a slew of caveats – he admits that this is strictly a wisp of a rumor of an idea that may have possibly been discussed by someone who perhaps works in the Phillies front office – the man’s track record leads one to believe that he’s not simply blowing smoke. It’s not unheard of for a generally reputable journalist to pretty much make shit up in the interest of generating a story.

Olney points out that as insane, fantasy-land, video game trades go, this isn’t the most ridiculous idea. Pujols and Howard are both hitting free agency in 2011. Howard is going to get mad cash, of course, but Pujols can justifiably demand that a team make him Oprah-rich, or at least pay him like A-Rod. St. Louis might view Howard as a better bet to re-sign. He’s a local boy, which would probably make serious headway toward the public relations fallout that dealing Pujols would cause. Amaro served as the assistant GM under Pat Gillick, who has pulled off this kind of trade before, and let’s not forget that he did just orchestrate a historic series of trades this winter.

Whether or not there’s anything to this, I can’t tell you. It’s awful hard to get the genuine scoop from down here in my mom’s basement. What I’m interested in is picking my jaw up from the floor long enough to speculate on the logistics of such a deal, and what it would mean for the Phillies going forward, besides being fucking awesome.

The likelihood of a one-for-one swap is nonexistent. There would have to be more going to the Cardinals. Pujols is damn near twice as valuable as Howard. If Amaro somehow talks John Mozeliak into giving up Pujols for Howard straight up, either he’s a wizard or he gave Mozeliak the date-rape drug. Possibly both. Also, I would do the following things:

1. Name my firstborn son “Ruben Amaro III”.
2. Construct a shrine in his honor.
3. Write a Part IV for my “Evaluating Amaro” series that consists solely of the words “you,” “win,” and “master.”
4. Swear my undying allegiance to the Amaro family, while possibly emancipating from my own family and trying to join them.

Again, it ain’t gonna happen. So what would we be giving up? Probably way too much. Domonic Brown is a given, along with whoever else the Cards like best in our system. Maybe Victorino, or Blanton. Maybe even Hamels. The price could conceivably be lowered if St. Louis got a guaranteed extension for Howard as a condition of the deal, like we did for Halladay. But teams simply don’t trade the best player in baseball for pennies on the dollar. It just doesn’t happen. I mean, for Christ’s sake, some Phillies fans are still bitching about having traded Lee. Multiply that by about a zillion and add infinity, and you’ve got an idea of what reaction in St. Louis would be like if the Cardinals traded Pujols for anything less than the ransom of several kings. I don’t even know if Cards fans would accept any package for him. Yeah, they don’t run the team, but pissing off the entire fanbase is generally not a savvy move. From a pure baseball perspective, Howard + Brown + another valuable piece is a reasonable offer, but “reasonable offers” and “fair value” are almost nonentities when you’re talking about dealing off the face of your franchise and one of the best hitters in the history of baseball.

Just for the sake of pleasure, let’s envision what our everyday lineup would look like if we managed to add Pujols without giving up a significant major-league piece outside of Howard: Rollins, Utley, Werth, Pujols, Ibanez, Victorino, Polanco, Ruiz. That’s just not fair. Granted, we’d likely have gutted the farm and quite probably screwed ourselves beyond 2010, but, I mean, look at that lineup. Jesus.

It’s almost certain that nothing will come of this, but hey: We can dream.

Not much Phillies stuff to talk about today other than Kendrick turning in another solid four innings in a 4-3 loss to the Orioles, so here’s a picture of Jayson Werth stroking his glorious beard in deep thought.