Since apparently doing a series of posts has become the thing lately here at Long Drive I figured I should do one as well. These series of posts will have my predictions of the Phillies player’s WAR and whatever other random stats I might feel like predicting. For pitchers I will do WAR and ERA. I’ll probably drag this out a little and break it into sections so I don’t do one incredibly long post. Said sections being: starting rotation, bullpen, infield, outfield, and finally bench.

Let me also start by saying I have little to base these predictions on and these predictions are just that, predictions. First up: starting rotation, except for 5th starter because really it will probably be several people this year. So follow me after the jump for what I expect from our starting rotation  in 2010.

#1 Pitcher: Roy Halladay

Avg WAR Over Past 3 Seasons: 6.8 WAR

Avg ERA Over Past 3 Seasons: 3.09 ERA

2010 WAR Prediction: 7.8 WAR

2010 ERA Prediction: 2.40 ERA

Reasoning: I, obviously, expect Halladay’s first year in the NL to be a very successful one. His WAR the past 3 seasons has been 5.6, 7.4, and 7.3 respectively but I see him racing Utley to the end for an 8 WAR. He won’t quite end the season with an 8 WAR like most Phils fans would hope but I think he will come damn close. The ERA prediction reasoning is a simple one, his ERA will be lower than Johan Santana’s was in his first year in the NL. Yea, I’m a “hater”.

#2 Pitcher: Cole Hamels

Avg WAR Over Past 3 Seasons: 4.1 WAR

Avg ERA Over Past 3 Seasons: 3.60 ERA

2010 WAR Prediction: 4.8 WAR

2010 ERA Prediction: 2.98 ERA

Reasoning: I think Hamels is in line to have his best year yet. He didn’t have as terrible year last year as everyone makes it out to be, the peripherals were all there and he had some bad luck on BABIP. Hamels best WAR was, not surprisingly, in ’08 when he had a 4.6 WAR and I see him passing that this year slightly. By slightly I mean only a 0.11 drop in ERA and a 0.2 raise in WAR. I’m so high on Hamels this year just from the stories of his work ethic this off season and the addition of his cutter. I may be lost in the sauce a bit but so be it, I’m on the Hamels bandwagon.

#3 Pitcher: Joe Blanton

Avg WAR Over Past 3 Seasons: 3.3 WAR

Avg ERA Over Past 3 Seasons: 4.23 ERA

2010 WAR Prediction: 3.5 WAR

2010 ERA Prediction: 3.96 ERA

Reasoning: TheRuckus went over the enigma that is Big Baby Blanton recently and I pretty much agree with him completely on what he projected for Blanton in 2010, a 3.5ish WAR and an ERA close to 4. He probably will never be as good as he was on ’07 or as bad as he was in ’08 for that matter, but I think he is somewhere in between those two years and is a solid #3 option for the Phils. Like Ruckus said, fortunately for us we don’t need him to be an ace.

#4 Pitcher: J.A. Happ

Avg WAR Over Past 2 Seasons: 1.1 WAR

Avg ERA Over Past 2 Seasons: 3.13 ERA

2010 WAR Prediction: 2.1 WAR

2010 ERA Prediction: 4.25 ERA

Reasoning: Yes, Happ is due for some regression this year after his 2009 rookie campaign described so lovingly by Keith Law as “A raging fluke driven by an unsustainable performance with men in scoring position that was about luck, not skill.” but I don’t think it will be as bad as most people do. Placed in the 4th slot in the rotation Happ is definitely serviceable here and one hundred percent better than what some other teams use as a 4th starter *cough* OLIVER PEREZ! *cough*. If he eventually gets pushed to the 5 spot by a mid-season pick up (Cliff Lee) then he will be even better. Just kidding about the Clifton thing, calm down. But if he’s available…AH nevermind. Also Happ is the subject of my best MSPaint work EVAR.

3 Responses to “2010 WAR Predictions: Starting Rotation”