Time for part two in my WAR prediction series, up this time: Bullpen. Relief pitchers are very hard to predict anything about, each year someone can be amazing and then be complete trash the next. But I am going to do my best to give it a shot. So follow me after the jump for the predictions…

Closer: Brad Lidge

Avg WAR Over Past 3 Seasons: 1.1 WAR

Avg ERA Over Past 3 Seasons: 4.17 ERA

2010 WAR Prediction: 1.7 WAR

2010 ERA Prediction: 3.03 ERA

Reasoning: Well even the best closers in the league usually have a WAR around 2 to 3, Mariano Rivera had a 2.0 WAR last year, and I don’t think Lidge will be among the league’s elite. I also don’t think he will be as terrible as last year’s -0.7 WAR. I see him being a little worse than ’08, putting his over/under in blown saves at 5 and taking the under. When the season is all said and done fans will be able to look at his performance and be satisfied.

Setup Man: Ryan Madson

Avg WAR Over Past 3 Seasons: 1.0 WAR

Avg ERA Over Past 3 Seasons: 3.12 ERA

2010 WAR Prediction: 1.5 WAR

2010 ERA Prediction: 2.86 ERA

Reasoning: Ryan was pretty good in ’08 and then better in ’09 out of the pen. I expect him to continue the trend of getting better and for his WAR to go up slightly and his ERA to drop a little as well. I’m hoping Madson won’t get much time closing out games because that will mean Lidge is sucking, but I’m sure he will have a couple opportunities to do so when Lidge needs a rest. Look for Ryan to have his best year yet. I’m such a homer…

LH Setup Man: J.C. Romero

Avg WAR Over Past 3 Seasons: -0.1 WAR

Avg ERA Over Past 3 Seasons: 2.46 ERA

2010 WAR Prediction: 0.0 WAR

2010 ERA Prediction: 3.51 ERA

Reasoning: Well WAR definitely isn’t kind to good ‘ole JC. He had a 0.1 WAR in ’07 but didn’t have a lot of innings, only 56.1 IP, and I just feel he is basically going to be the definition of a replacement level player this year. This is actually a friendly prediction because with him coming off surgery don’t be surprised to see him land in the negatives for WAR again in 2010.

Middle Relief: Danys Baez

Avg WAR Over Past 3 Seasons: 0.2 WAR

Avg ERA Over Past 3 Seasons: 4.99 ERA

2010 WAR Prediction: 0.6 WAR

2010 ERA Prediction: 3.69 ERA

Reasoning: Danys Baez is another one that is particularly hard to predict because of me not knowing a whole lot about him and he is still bouncing back from Tommy John surgery. He has looked pretty damn good so far this spring, 5 scoreless innings, and I think moving from the AL East will definitely help him. I’m thinking he will have a decent year, but I don’t really trust someone who pluralizes their name.

Middle Relief: Jose Contreras

Avg WAR Over Past 3 Seasons: 2.4 WAR

Avg ERA Over Past 3 Seasons: 5.01 ERA

2010 WAR Prediction: 0.8 WAR

2010 ERA Prediction: 4.02 ERA

Reasoning: I was a pretty big fan of this signing but don’t get too excited about the average 2+ WAR, it was mostly from starting games. With a full switch to the pen this year he will see a drop in WAR but I see him having a decent ERA and helping the Phillies with multiple, most likely low leverage, innings. Contreras could really impress in the pen and maybe break a 1 WAR, but I think he will end up being just slightly above average.

Long Relief: Chad Durbin

Avg WAR Over Past 3 Seasons: -0.4 WAR

Avg ERA Over Past 3 Seasons: 3.99 ERA

2010 WAR Prediction: -0.2 WAR

2010 ERA Prediction: 4.29 ERA

Reasoning: Durbin is back in the Phillies pen for another year after just making the cut and being offered arbitration. He basically bumped Clay Condrey out of Philadelphia, which didn’t make much sense to me. Anyway I think Durbin will be slightly better than his -0.4 ’09 WAR and land right at -0.2. We don’t need to worry much about Durbin not being the greatest pen arm seeing as he will mostly be doing mop up. Durbin is going to be replaced by Scott Mathieson at some point this season, mark it down.

Read 2010 WAR Predictions: Starting Rotation HERE.

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