So much for a lazy Sunday. ESPN’s Buster Olney just dropped a goddamned bomb.

It’s the sort of thing that is much more likely to happen in fantasy baseball than in real life, but according to sources, an idea has been kicked around the Phillies’ organization internally, with discussions about proposing a swap of slugger Ryan Howard for St. Louis superstar Albert Pujols.

!!!!!!!!!!

It’s not fully clear whether the Phillies actually have approached the Cardinals with the idea, and even if St. Louis were to seriously consider such an offer, executives with the Cardinals would have to swallow very hard before dealing Pujols, a player widely regarded as the best in the sport. Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro flatly denied that the internal discussions have taken place. “Lies,” he said. “That’s a lie. I don’t know who you’re talking to, but that’s a lie.”

Ruben’s denial, of course, tells us absolutely nothing. GMs are never honest or candid with the media about personnel decisions, at least, not successful ones. And while Olney’s article comes with a slew of caveats – he admits that this is strictly a wisp of a rumor of an idea that may have possibly been discussed by someone who perhaps works in the Phillies front office – the man’s track record leads one to believe that he’s not simply blowing smoke. It’s not unheard of for a generally reputable journalist to pretty much make shit up in the interest of generating a story.

Olney points out that as insane, fantasy-land, video game trades go, this isn’t the most ridiculous idea. Pujols and Howard are both hitting free agency in 2011. Howard is going to get mad cash, of course, but Pujols can justifiably demand that a team make him Oprah-rich, or at least pay him like A-Rod. St. Louis might view Howard as a better bet to re-sign. He’s a local boy, which would probably make serious headway toward the public relations fallout that dealing Pujols would cause. Amaro served as the assistant GM under Pat Gillick, who has pulled off this kind of trade before, and let’s not forget that he did just orchestrate a historic series of trades this winter.

Whether or not there’s anything to this, I can’t tell you. It’s awful hard to get the genuine scoop from down here in my mom’s basement. What I’m interested in is picking my jaw up from the floor long enough to speculate on the logistics of such a deal, and what it would mean for the Phillies going forward, besides being fucking awesome.

The likelihood of a one-for-one swap is nonexistent. There would have to be more going to the Cardinals. Pujols is damn near twice as valuable as Howard. If Amaro somehow talks John Mozeliak into giving up Pujols for Howard straight up, either he’s a wizard or he gave Mozeliak the date-rape drug. Possibly both. Also, I would do the following things:

1. Name my firstborn son “Ruben Amaro III”.
2. Construct a shrine in his honor.
3. Write a Part IV for my “Evaluating Amaro” series that consists solely of the words “you,” “win,” and “master.”
4. Swear my undying allegiance to the Amaro family, while possibly emancipating from my own family and trying to join them.

Again, it ain’t gonna happen. So what would we be giving up? Probably way too much. Domonic Brown is a given, along with whoever else the Cards like best in our system. Maybe Victorino, or Blanton. Maybe even Hamels. The price could conceivably be lowered if St. Louis got a guaranteed extension for Howard as a condition of the deal, like we did for Halladay. But teams simply don’t trade the best player in baseball for pennies on the dollar. It just doesn’t happen. I mean, for Christ’s sake, some Phillies fans are still bitching about having traded Lee. Multiply that by about a zillion and add infinity, and you’ve got an idea of what reaction in St. Louis would be like if the Cardinals traded Pujols for anything less than the ransom of several kings. I don’t even know if Cards fans would accept any package for him. Yeah, they don’t run the team, but pissing off the entire fanbase is generally not a savvy move. From a pure baseball perspective, Howard + Brown + another valuable piece is a reasonable offer, but “reasonable offers” and “fair value” are almost nonentities when you’re talking about dealing off the face of your franchise and one of the best hitters in the history of baseball.

Just for the sake of pleasure, let’s envision what our everyday lineup would look like if we managed to add Pujols without giving up a significant major-league piece outside of Howard: Rollins, Utley, Werth, Pujols, Ibanez, Victorino, Polanco, Ruiz. That’s just not fair. Granted, we’d likely have gutted the farm and quite probably screwed ourselves beyond 2010, but, I mean, look at that lineup. Jesus.

It’s almost certain that nothing will come of this, but hey: We can dream.

Not much Phillies stuff to talk about today other than Kendrick turning in another solid four innings in a 4-3 loss to the Orioles, so here’s a picture of Jayson Werth stroking his glorious beard in deep thought.

Pictured, second from left: Danny Bonaduce, pre-steroids.

My relationship with J.A. Happ, if you will, has been an interesting one. I’ve been a fan of his since his minor-league days, telling anyone who would listen that he would eventually be a quality big-league pitcher. When he got his shot in 2008 and pitched well, I extolled the virtues of letting Jamie Moyer walk and replacing him in the rotation with Happ. I believe I was called a moron for this more than once. As it happened, Happ ended up competing with Chan Ho Park for the final spot in the rotation last spring. Park, being a veteran, a righthander, and inexplicably promised a fair shot at the rotation when he signed, only needed to pitch reasonably well in spring training to win the job. He did that and more, and Happ, who pitched well in his own right, was banished to the bullpen.

Nearly two months of Park stinking up the joint ensued before Charlie Manuel finally put Happ in the rotation where he belonged, and Happ put up one of the most impressive rookie seasons in recent Phillies history, going 12-4 with a 2.93 ERA, finishing second to Chris Coghlan in Rookie of the Year voting. A funny thing happened then: I, perhaps Happ’s most fervent supporter mere months before, found myself tempering the wild enthusiasm of casual fans, who were penciling Happ into future Cy Young ballots. As you’ll see after the jump, this is just a tiny bit ridiculous.

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You could make him a Phillie

As promised, today I’m going to be looking at trade opportunities to cut payroll in 2011.

For the purpose of this analysis, I’m going to assume the Phillies exercise buyouts on Juan Castro and JC Romero giving them 7 mil to play with over 6 roster spots.

When creating an unrealistic “let’s trade X, Y, and Z for all your base”-type discussion, it’s important to play the game with players who actually have value in trade.  This means moving them should provide us some payroll relief while their contracts shouldn’t be such that we can’t get anything in value back.  I will not condone Luis Castillo for Jason Heyward speculation.  If the following appears absolutely impossible then I didn’t do my job.

The 2011 roster has three players that fit the criteria: Cole Hamels (1 year, 9.5m with a final arb year), Shane Victorino (2 years, 17m), and Ryan Howard (1 year, 20m).

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Since apparently doing a series of posts has become the thing lately here at Long Drive I figured I should do one as well. These series of posts will have my predictions of the Phillies player’s WAR and whatever other random stats I might feel like predicting. For pitchers I will do WAR and ERA. I’ll probably drag this out a little and break it into sections so I don’t do one incredibly long post. Said sections being: starting rotation, bullpen, infield, outfield, and finally bench.

Let me also start by saying I have little to base these predictions on and these predictions are just that, predictions. First up: starting rotation, except for 5th starter because really it will probably be several people this year. So follow me after the jump for what I expect from our starting rotation  in 2010.

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I was lucky enough to score this interview with Meech from The Fightins. What he said shocked me.

Take a look:

If you haven’t been keeping up, the last few days I’ve been looking at the Phillies future payroll commitments in order to make some observations.  I even have a public Google Doc so that you can follow along at home.  Today’s post will get to the point that’s nearest and dearest to my heart, how to keep Jesus Jayson Werth without paying him in 2011.

First off, why keep Jayson Werth?  After all, we’ve already observed that the Phillies have a strong outfield and with the tight 2011 payroll, it will take a lot of creativity to keep Werth aboard.  For 2011, Shane Victorino and Raul Ibanez are signed on the dotted line with Ben Francisco, Tyson Gillies, Quintin Berry, and John Mayberry Jr. competing for the 3rd spot and bench options.  Gillies will be the eventual winner with Brown starting to push him by the end of the season.  Looking outside the organization, outfield is incredibly deep and future all-star outfielders are non-tendered or otherwise let go all the time by the Dodgers. Perhaps I should open up a roster slot for Xavier Paul now.

And the newest Phillie is...

The reason to keep Werth around is simple, he’s good at everything.  The man is the second most dynamic player on the roster behind shoe-in Hall of Famer Chase Utley.  He can run, throw, field, hit, work the count, and take a pitcher deep.  In fact it’s tough to pick out any flaws with Werth.  He has a checkered health history, although his injuries resulted from physical trauma, not poor conditioning or a run down body.  In fact, as a result of his injuries, his body has far less mileage on it than most 30 year olds (31 on May 20).  Aside from that, he’s merely above average against RHP and does take a healthy number of strike outs. Looking at his skill set, the only comparable player is Alex Rodriguez. While Werth only truly bests ARod in the underrated facial hair category, it’s safe to call him the second most well rounded player in baseball.  If you just focus on the description and last two years of work, Werth looks like a guy who should be earning a Matt Holliday like contract.  That we may be able to extend him for considerably less is all the more reason to be interested in keeping him.  But how do we do that when there’s practically no payroll available in 2011?

Yesterday, we took a look at the 2012 payroll, noting that if they stuck with the $140 mil payroll ceiling, the Phillies have 35 mil to spend on a 1b and a PH.  They could opt to force Kyle Kendrick out of the rotation with a pitcher signing or waste it in the bullpen.  We also took a peek at that free agent class, noting the depth on the 1b side and the shallowness at SP.  Given that, it might be best to avoid the pitching targets and budget 20 mil for a premium 1b.  With this year to year plan in hand, the payroll is a solid 15 mil below the ceiling.  This is where Werth fits in.  A 2012 Phillies team with Werth is a team without Shane Victorino (9.5m).  That means that 24.5 mil of funds would be available to Werth. Why not use them? Why not present Werth the opportunity to help the club pay him.  A contract that breaks down as 5/22/16/16 gives him an AAV of 14.75m, probably about the cost and years he’s looking for to stay.  If that’s not palatable to Werth, Ruben, or ownership, there are a number of creative ways to defer cost.  A simple deferral could turn a 12/16/16/16 contract into a 4/17.6/17.6/17.6/1.6/1.6 deal over 4 years (that’s 8 mil deferred in 5 annual installments).  A longer deferral period could be named for more money or varying amounts could be applied.  Another pseudo-deferral is the signing bonus.  An 8 mil signing bonus (with deferment) would change how the contract is treated on payroll, giving Ruben some legroom in ‘11 via the accountant.

The lesson here is not to instruct Ruben on how to do his job, it’s to point out that if the club really wants Werth and really plans to move forward as the dominant force of the NL, the flexibility is there to sign Werth without making any further changes.

Also donuts. OM NOM NOM

The major angles being covered on the Phils’ rotation in spring training are Roy Halladay being ridiculously good at baseball, Cole Hamels’ return to form after a nightmarish postseason, and the competition for the final spot. Receiving minor attention is J.A. Happ’s quest to build on his overachieving rookie year. Nobody is really talking about Joe Blanton, however. I understand why: He’s viewed as a steady workhorse, a guy who will give you a solid, unspectacular 200 innings every year. Guys like Blanton are sort of like oxygen – it’s important, but you generally don’t notice it until it’s gone. As our third starter, he’s a pretty vital cog, and will be through 2012, thanks to the extension he signed  in January – and a close look at his 2009 performance raises a lot of interesting questions about what we can expect from our favorite Kentucky-fried righty going forward. Check it out after the jump.

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Fail

Well, since I promised to cover ALL the NL East teams, I suppose I have to take a trip down I-95 to cover the Nationals.  They’re like the fat kid you grew up playing sports with.  Bless their hearts, they try their best… but you know eventually they’re going to be sucking wind within 5 minutes, or blowing chunks on the side of the field.

Granted, they are getting better.  They have the tools to possibly pull 70-75 wins out of their collective asses.  But will that be enough to drag them out of the NLE basement?  Did Grizzly Adams have a beard?

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One fun thing about being a member of a sports forum is trolling the Mets boards and seeing what these unlovable losers are crying about on any given day. Since they have little else to talk about, except having 14 catchers, they decided to have a discussion about the concessions at Shiti Field.

Now Phillies fans, for the most part, try to stay out of the Mets forum for the simple fact that they have some mods who have a trigger happy ban hammer and enjoy stroking their internet peen. But on this fine day a member of the Phillies forum, who simply goes by “I Like The Phils”, decided to chime in on the subject with this gem:

Whatever you eat, don’t choke.

This of course netted him a two month ban. You will be missed ILTP. This ones for you.